WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 93W)

#121 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:17 am

mrbagyo wrote:Philippine sea doing its thing again despite some not so favorable wind shear... that's a lot of rain. western visayas ( Samar , and especially Leyte is very prone to nasty landslides and flash flood) I hope they are well prepared for this one.



well I really hope they are really prepared and aware of this. it was reported in the local news that tropical cyclone formation is not expected from this. they warned about the rains from a low pressure area but people could've taken it seriously if they are expecting a real storm out of this. people tend to have that behavior.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 93W)

#122 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:18 am

TPPN10 PGTW 240611

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 24/0530Z

C. 10.0N

D. 131.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA
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Re: Re:

#123 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:23 am

supercane4867 wrote:
Doksuri remained a weak and decoupled storm throught out its life, and this one should end up with the same if it becomes anything...



this is really going to be another Doksuri. Doksuri might be a sheared storm but it displayed really huge amounts of convection in its lifetime. and this is exactly what our future storm is showing. the center appears to be in the southern part of that growing CDO.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 93W)

#124 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:25 am

Strong Low Pressure Area (93W/1004 MB) heading towards the Visayas. Its center was located about 572 km ENE of Surigao City or 596 km ESE of Borongan City (10.3N 130.7E)...max winds of 30 kph...moving WNW at 28 kph towards Samar-Leyte Area. Its rainbands will bring occasional rains with squalls and thunderstorms across Bicol, Visayas and Northern Mindanao beginning tonight until Wednesday, Dec 26. This LPA will also enhance Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) - bringing windy & cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains, squalls & dangerously rough seas across Eastern & Southern Luzon beginning tomorrow, Christmas Day.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 93W)

#125 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:27 am

euro6208 wrote:Strong Low Pressure Area (93W/1004 MB) heading towards the Visayas. Its center was located about 572 km ENE of Surigao City or 596 km ESE of Borongan City (10.3N 130.7E)...max winds of 30 kph...moving WNW at 28 kph towards Samar-Leyte Area. Its rainbands will bring occasional rains with squalls and thunderstorms across Bicol, Visayas and Northern Mindanao beginning tonight until Wednesday, Dec 26. This LPA will also enhance Northeast Monsoon (aka. Amihan) - bringing windy & cloudy conditions w/ occasional rains, squalls & dangerously rough seas across Eastern & Southern Luzon beginning tomorrow, Christmas Day.


isn't that from the typhoon2000 website? it also says this system is not expected to be a storm.
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#126 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:47 am

** WTPQ20 RJTD 241500 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 09.5N 130.5E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 09.5N 125.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 93W)

#127 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 1:13 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 133.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF TROUGHING AND ADJACENT TO AN AREA OF CONVERGENT,
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS. A 241138Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC AND
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS POSITIONED NEAR THE LARGE CLUSTER OF
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS SHIFTED NORTH
AND IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE
AREA SHOWING STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC
AND WEAKER 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
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#128 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 24, 2012 1:15 pm

it does seem that the thick convection is being sheared to the west...
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 93W)

#129 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:04 pm

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTY-SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241521Z DEC 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 242100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTY-SEV) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.7N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.4N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.8N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.1N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.5N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 11.4N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 129.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 241521Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 241530). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Image
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#130 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:16 pm

:lol:
** WTPQ20 RJTD 250000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1225 WUKONG (1225) UPGRADED FROM TdanaLYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 10.1N 128.8E POOR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
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Meow

#131 Postby Meow » Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:24 pm

Complete information of TS Wukong.

Image

TS 1225 (WUKONG)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 25 December 2012

<Analyses at 25/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°05'(10.1°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°05'(10.1°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°55'(10.9°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E111°55'(111.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#132 Postby stormstrike » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:27 pm

wow..it's currently in an area of good shear environment.. :lol:

Image
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#133 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:33 pm

are there mirror sites available for jtwc? their site seems not to be working. maybe they are indeed on a holiday now?
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Re:

#134 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:41 pm

dexterlabio wrote:are there mirror sites available for jtwc? their site seems not to be working. maybe they are indeed on a holiday now?

FNMOC TC Page
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Re:

#135 Postby stormstrike » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:43 pm

dexterlabio wrote:are there mirror sites available for jtwc? their site seems not to be working. maybe they are indeed on a holiday now?



wooo..i thought it was only me and my stupid net.. :double:
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#136 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:04 pm

wow! our 27th tropical cyclone of the season develops on christmas day and headed towards land!...
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#137 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:07 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 242114
TCSWNP

A. 27W (NONAME)

B. 24/2030Z

C. 8.9N

D. 129.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...VERY GOOD SUITE OF MI AND SWIR LOOP SHOWS THE OLD LOW
LEVEL CENTER THAT WAS AROUND 7 TO 8N OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS BEEN
SHEARING OUT WITH A TROF EXTENDING NW TOWARD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING UNDER THE LARGE/COLD/PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SHIELD... AS SUCH
THIS PRESSURE CENTER HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING THE WIND FIELD CENTER LOCATION
FROM THE TROF TO THIS NEW AREA...SO THERE SEEMS TO BE A BROAD COL FROM
THE CONVECTION TO THE OLD LLC. WITH THAT STATED...CONVECTION DOES WRAP
AT LEAST .4 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 2.5 WHICH...COULD BE THE WIND SPEEDS IN
THE STRONG EASTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE LLC...BUT IS UNREPRESENTATIVE FOR
DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
MET IS 1.5. AND PT AGREES GIVEN DISTANCE FROM CENTER.
FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA


could be 2.5 (tropical storm) but went with 1.5 because of something that isn't unrepresentative :roll:
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#138 Postby stormstrike » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:10 pm

look at that! southeastern quadrant is almost cloud-free... :D
as it heads west..Bopha-hit areas would not receive that much rain..

Image


it just amazes me that they are spared...
but looking at that cdo....it may not be good for Central Philippines... :roll:
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Re: Re:

#139 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:20 pm



thanks! :lol:

if there would be any good news, that is the Bopha-striken areas won't get as much rains from Wukong. This almost looks like Son Tinh last November in terms of track and intensity.
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#140 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:25 pm

Image


1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.1N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 128.5E


REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 127.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//
NNNN


Very good read regarding 27W's track and intensity and what we can expect out from this system



WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED UNDER A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
30 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES
AS WELL AS ON
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS
IMPROVED BANDING PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS, 180NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND
SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 27W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE TRACKING OVER
THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DEPENDING ON INTENSITY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK
SYSTEM AND, THEREFORE, DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE GFS SHOWS A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A STRONGER SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OFFSET
THE BAROTROPIC MODEL, WHICH IS RECURVING TD 27W NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RENEWED
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, IT WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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