WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#161 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:53 am

Image


1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 125.9E

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 125.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 15 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 251126Z SSMIS 91GZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TD 27W
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE CONVERGENT
BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
REMAINED AT 30 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THESE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS AS WELL AS ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 27W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT REEMERGES IN THE NORTHERN SULU SEA AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AFTER TAU 48
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO OFFSET WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO RECURVE TD 27W
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECASTED
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, IT WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 96. OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:07 am

25/1430 UTC 10.5N 125.6E T2.0/2.0 WUKONG -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:34 am

The JTWC still keeps it as a TD :roll:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -58.0C Cloud Region Temp : -60.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:22 pm

Going to make landfall on Malaysia? :lol:

Image
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:24 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 251507
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG)
B. 25/1430Z
C. 10.8N
D. 125E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES MAY BE UNREP DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND
. PT AND MET WERE 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1126Z 10.7N 125.8E SSMS

LONG
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby Meow » Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:00 pm

euro6208 wrote:oh wow! JMA has the lowest wind speed out of all agencies??? being the RSMC of this basin, this is ridiculous...

Unlike other agencies just multiplying 0.88 or 0.9 to the original table, the JMA uses the ‘Koba table’ which makes weak storms stronger, and strong storms weaker.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/d ... alysis.pdf

Only Megi in 2010 has CI8.0 in this basin since the 21st century. I guess Wukong may only get 2.5 as its winds only reach 40 knots now. Besides, storms with T/CI2.5 in the South Hemisphere cannot be named.
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#167 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:46 pm

looking at PAGASA's Project NOAH, it looks like the system has made landfall now with the circulation visible as it crosses Leyte Island... it seems the surface friction is tightening the circulation somewhat but that remains to be seen...

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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:24 pm

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 252100
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 11.8N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.2N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 12.6N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.5N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 11.5N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 10.1N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 123.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Image
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:17 pm

Image


1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 11.6N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 123.1E



REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN
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#170 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:28 pm

I dont think three of us need to re-post the same JTWC warning, we all have links to where to get that information.

(Promo)

Or you can go here where all three agencies are posted on the same spot

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/cu ... orm-track/
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Re:

#171 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:53 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:I dont think three of us need to re-post the same JTWC warning, we all have links to where to get that information.

(Promo)

Or you can go here where all three agencies are posted on the same spot

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/cu ... orm-track/


how are they the same? it shows clearly warning # 5 and 6...
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:53 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 260005Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT TS 27W HAS
MAINTAINED ITS WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH RJTD AND PGTW. TS 27W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THIS PHASE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#173 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:07 pm

My point is we don't need to post every single warning on here with no added feedback. This is a forum, as I look above I haft to dig through JTWC information to get to the stuff Im actually looking for which is conversation on the storm. If we want JTWC info. just go to the JTWC Website.
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#174 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:11 pm

Way off topic though and just some constructive criticism. That is all. Take it or not.

...

Putting my two cents in on the storm though, I just put together a video analysis on where it is and where its going. I hope some visiting here find it useful.

One big note, the death toll is still at 0 from what I have seen. Has anyone heard anything different? If that is the case fantastic news on the heels of Bopha.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKFxT2bzSSk[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#175 Postby stormstrike » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:35 pm

well, i think it's ok.. it's for archiving purposes too... :)
just sayin'.

but yeah, since this is a forum..personal analysis should have been integrated..for further discussion....
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#176 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:39 pm

Nail on head storm strike, thanks!
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Re:

#177 Postby Meow » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:18 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:I dont think three of us need to re-post the same JTWC warning, we all have links to where to get that information.

I never saw people here re-posting warnings from the JMA. People in this forum should focus on RSMCs more.
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#178 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:19 pm

Wukong appears to be weakening possibly due to land interaction

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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#179 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:36 pm

yes it's weakening but not that much! it still has a wide area of water with small islands to maintain its strength...

based on it's strong organization but low biased dvorak, landfall intensity is likely around 50 knots........it has since come down to 35 knots still a TS...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#180 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 26, 2012 1:05 am

i think "convection-wise" it's weakening but the core structure seems intact and well-defined. i wish i could find a link of the latest MW imagery to confirm this. it seems both jtwc and nrl sites are down.
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