WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

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supercane4867
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#21 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:08 pm

I see nothing that will steer it to the north

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#22 Postby stormstrike » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:28 am

supercane4867 wrote:Don't see much organization right now

Image


hope it just stays that way... -_-
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#23 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:30 am

Convection needed...

Image

LLCC looks good though

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#24 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:32 am

still disorganized but has good outflow
93W:
Image

compared to Bopha in its initial stage:

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:36 am

interesting...is bopha (wpac), evan (spac) and soon *wukong* triplets??? they seem to develop in almost the same longitude but in different hemisphere...there must be something in that area that could have spawned all three just days apart...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#26 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:41 am

WWJP25 RJTD 191200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 191200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 03N 164E WEST SLOWLY.
...
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:53 am

Image

well defined circulation and plenty of moisture...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:04 am

there must be something in that area that could have spawned all three just days apart...

my wild guess... slight El NINO.
remember joan and ivan in northern hemisphere &
cyclone susan and ron in southern hemisphere
all are cat five
I won't be surprised if Evan will have a twin...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#29 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:30 pm

30%
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#30 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:57 pm

mrbagyo wrote: my wild guess... slight El NINO.
remember joan and ivan in northern hemisphere &
cyclone susan and ron in southern hemisphere
all are cat five
I won't be surprised if Evan will have a twin...

There's obviously no El-nino, ENSO has been neutral and slightly negative in the past weeks
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#31 Postby stormstrike » Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:40 pm

I think ECMWF model is now picking this up on its latest run...although quite weak...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#32 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:35 pm

yeah finally Euro is showing a closed low pressure system and i assume this must be a very weak one. but this one is really huge.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#33 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:08 am

Remain disorganized

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#34 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:37 am

it looks elongated and very broad. i have an impression this could end up as an open wave if it does not develop soon.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#35 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:42 am

supercane4867 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote: my wild guess... slight El NINO.
remember joan and ivan in northern hemisphere &
cyclone susan and ron in southern hemisphere
all are cat five
I won't be surprised if Evan will have a twin...

There's obviously no El-nino, ENSO has been neutral and slightly negative in the past weeks


it's probably one of those rossby or cckw that propagates eastward... not really my thing but the 200hpa anomaly seem to indicate upper divergence in that region dec 16-17... :?:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#36 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:55 am

gfs backs out. :lol: but the rain from this is still threatening.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#37 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:46 am

I guess the track will cross Surigao City then Central Cebu, possibly as a Category 1/2. I don't think it will be weak because it is far from any landmass and near the place where Bopha/Pablo originated.

It will move west mostly, sometimes west-northwest because of the strong subtropical ridge over North, Central, Southern Luzon and the northernmost areas of the Visayas. I see another trough south of Mindanao and GFS says that it might be a weak depression, i hope not... Invest 93W is quite more organized than yesterday. The steering winds don't really push it to the north. I don't agree with the GFS, which is pushing it to Luzon.. (Luzon has high wind shear)

WIND SHEAR:

Image


PH loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... hilir.html
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#38 Postby stormstrike » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:27 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I guess the track will cross Surigao City then Central Cebu, possibly as a Category 1/2. I don't think it will be weak because it is far from any landmass and near the place where Bopha/Pablo originated.

It will move west mostly, sometimes west-northwest because of the strong subtropical ridge over North, Central, Southern Luzon and the northernmost areas of the Visayas. I see another trough south of Mindanao and GFS says that it might be a weak depression, i hope not... Invest 93W is quite more organized than yesterday. The steering winds don't really push it to the north. I don't agree with the GFS, which is pushing it to Luzon.. (Luzon has high wind shear)

WIND SHEAR:

Image


PH loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... hilir.html


right now the shear is quite high on its path. i think that's why GFS has already backed out of a typhoon scenario...but as you said, it's still far so a lot of factors might still dictate the outcome of 93W..

BTW
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS says that it might be a weak depression, i hope not... Invest 93W is quite more organized than yesterday.

wth..it seems to imply that you want it to develop into a stronger storm...how inconsiderate.....
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#39 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:02 am

stormstrike wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I guess the track will cross Surigao City then Central Cebu, possibly as a Category 1/2. I don't think it will be weak because it is far from any landmass and near the place where Bopha/Pablo originated.

It will move west mostly, sometimes west-northwest because of the strong subtropical ridge over North, Central, Southern Luzon and the northernmost areas of the Visayas. I see another trough south of Mindanao and GFS says that it might be a weak depression, i hope not... Invest 93W is quite more organized than yesterday. The steering winds don't really push it to the north. I don't agree with the GFS, which is pushing it to Luzon.. (Luzon has high wind shear)

WIND SHEAR:

Image


PH loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... hilir.html


right now the shear is quite high on its path. i think that's why GFS has already backed out of a typhoon scenario...but as you said, it's still far so a lot of factors might still dictate the outcome of 93W..

BTW
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS says that it might be a weak depression, i hope not... Invest 93W is quite more organized than yesterday.

wth..it seems to imply that you want it to develop into a stronger storm...how inconsiderate.....

Actually the shear in Central Visayas is Moderate (20 knots). Northern Luzon has Extreme (100 knots)
The NOGAPS puts it on Southern Visayas. Wind shear is increasing and decreasing...

But i think i would AGREE on the GFS model... I think it will dissipate and will NOT DEVELOP.

From 90% chance of development i would downgrade it to 60%... (even if it is more organized)
But if it does, it will be a tropical depression/weak storm.

-UNOFFICIAL
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#40 Postby stormstrike » Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:25 am

Initial advisory from JTWC.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3N 156.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 201041Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 201043Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEFINED YET ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY,
WHICH IS HELPING TO FUEL THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY
FLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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