Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

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Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:33 pm

Image

15kts 1010mb 5N 73.2E
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:53 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Arabian Sea: INVEST 90A

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:40 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N 67.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201727Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL POOR
ORGANIZATION. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 201902Z SHOWS THE LLCC IS
EMBEDDED ALONG A LINE OF SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER CENTRAL INDIA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: Arabian Sea: INVEST 90A

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:03 am

TXIO26 KNES 211213
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90A)

B. 21/1200Z

C. 9.1N

D. 65.4E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION IN REGARDS TO A CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING FEATURES.
4-5 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD
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Re: Arabian Sea: INVEST 90A

#4 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:15 am

Upgraded to Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 67.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 210947Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 210724Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST PRODUCING STRONG
INFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER THE
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: Arabian Sea: INVEST 90A

#5 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:48 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 66.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 66.4E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 211312Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST. A
210724Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A
WESTERLY WIND BURST PRODUCING STRONG INFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE JUST EAST OF THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES PRESENT OVER THE
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: Arabian Sea: INVEST 90A

#6 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:50 pm

Look good

TXIO26 KNES 220245
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90A)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 8.9N

D. 65.0E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ WH BAND. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

Image
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#7 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Dec 22, 2012 4:30 am

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA. THE SYSTEM WOULD CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS

India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Outlook (600 AM UTC/1130 AM IST)
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Re: Arabian Sea: INVEST 90A

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:31 am

Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 22ndnd December, 2012 near latitude 9.00N and longitude 63.0.0E, about 1100 km west-southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep). The system is likely to intensify further and move westwards during next 72 hrs.
Under the influence of this system, no adverse weather is likely along and off west coast of India and Lakshadweep area as the system would move away from Indian coast.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 22ndnd December, 2012.
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Re: Arabian Sea: ARB02 - Depression

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:08 am

22/1430 UTC 8.6N 62.1E T2.0/2.0 90A -- Arabian Sea
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Re: Arabian Sea: ARB02 - Depression

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:47 pm

Image
TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 221830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 62.2E TO 9.2N 53.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221800Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 61.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
66.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 61.4E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAS BINNAH, SOMALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS SLOW
CONSOLIDATION IS ALSO REFLECTED ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES
INCLUDING A 221646Z AMSU-B COMPOSITE SHOWING A CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT IS NOW ALIGNED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CREATING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231830Z. //
NNNN
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Depression

#11 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:12 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
WTIO31 PGTW 230300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 59.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 59.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.6N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.6N 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 8.5N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 8.2N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 7.6N 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 58.9E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 221830Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 221830 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:21 pm

REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED AND DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, A NEW RAIN BAND HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 222123Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CREATING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS IS ALSO DISCERNIBLE IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG NORTHERN
SOMALIA COAST AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL, DUE TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO LANDFALL, AFTER WHICH, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH SOME
INDICATING A RECURVATURE BACK INTO THE WATER AND TOWARDS THE EQUATOR.
GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE MODEL DIVERGENCE AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 221830Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 221830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. //
NNNN
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:08 am

Image


1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 8.2N 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 57.4E

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 56.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
231130Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 231136Z SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE WANING NEAR THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 04A. THE CYCLONE LIES
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AND EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN SOMALIA COAST AFTER TAU 48. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY OR BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WBAR, WHICH DEPICTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT
IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE FORECASTED STEERING FLOW. THE REMAINING
FORECAST MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS, HAVE TRENDED A
BIT EQUATORWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY, CONSISTENT WITH THIS SHIFT IN GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

#14 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:14 am

Tropical Cyclone 04A
Image
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

#15 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:18 am

Apparently it's encountering some strong windshear

Image
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#16 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:10 pm

The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestward and now lays near 8.5N 57.0E or about 1700 m west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep), 700 km southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia), and about 550 km south southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen).

The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestward, crossing Somalia coast between 1730-2330 PM IST (December 25th).

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 5.0N to 12.5N and 49.5E to 63.0E and northeast Somalia.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 27-29C. Around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is 50-70 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as lower level relative vorticity. The upper level divergence shows no change. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate to high (15-25 knots) around system center. Hence, it has increased during past 12 hrs. As some features are favorable and others are not favorable, it may intensify into a marginal cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs.
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

#17 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:53 am

Final Warning

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 007
WTIO31 PGTW 241500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 7.2N 52.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 52.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 6.2N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 51.5E.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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Re: Arabian Sea: 04A - Deep Depression

#18 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:56 am

Didn't make it to land, but did brought some beneficial rain to the deserts :lol:

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#19 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:45 am

The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards and now lays near 7.0N 52.0E, or about 460 km south southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia).

The system is likely to move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast as a depression around forenoon (tomorrow) near 6.4N 49.0E.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -60C. Associated broken low medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Somalia and adjoining Arabian sea between 5.0N to 12.5N and 45.0E to 55.0E.

3 minute sustained near the center is 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 3 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 1 during next 5 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C around system center. The ocean thermal energy is <40 kj/cm2 around the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased and upper level divergence shows no significant change during last 12 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate to high (20-30 knots) around system center. It may weaken into a depression during next 12 hours.
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