WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is not a minimal typhoon; let's try 105kt, and climbing.

85 knots would be better, as the eye and the structure still need to be more organized in order to be a category 3. And I guess this would be upgrade to a category 2 in JTWC's next warning.

[Yellow Evan]

This is not a minimal typhoon; let's try 105kt, and climbing.

85 knots would be better, as the eye and the structure still need to be more organized in order to be a category 3. And I guess this would be upgrade to a category 2 in JTWC's next warning.

I'd go with around 100 knts now. T5.5 at least in the EPAC equals 100-105 knt.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm interested to see what this is by the next update on Best Track. I wouldn't be very surprised if it skipped Category 2 status. But I don't think this will happen just yet.

[cycloneye]

Here are a few web cams in Okinawa. Some are working and others not but you can see how are things going weatherwise as Neoguri gets closer. Hopefully it does not make a direct hit.

http://www.goandroam.com/webcams/japan/okinawa/

[mrbagyo]

with its current look, i'm pretty sure this will reach cat 5 strength

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 90kts.

08W NEOGURI 140705 0000 15.3N 138.2E WPAC 90 956

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So, anyone going with cat 4 intensity today? It's organizing and deepening really fast, even a lot faster than what the models predicted.

[stormcruisin]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2014 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 15:24:05 N Lon : 138:13:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 937.1mb/122.2kt

[mrbagyo]

is anyone chasing this in Okinawa???

[stormcruisin]

A few models have a super typhoon before Saturday. As you know xtyphooncyclonex none can really nail down the intensity.

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ27 KNES 042119
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 04/2032Z

C. 14.8N

D. 138.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH NEOGURI... 2032Z DT
IS ELONGATED DG EYE EMBEDDED JUST BARELY INTO WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
WITH RING OF WHITE TO ADD .5 FOR EYE ADJ. FOR CF OF 6.5. THE ELONGATION
SUBTRACTS .5 TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0. MET USING RAPID TREND IS 4.0...WHICH
IS MUCH TO LOW AND IS REJECTED. PT IS BOUND TO 4.5 PER RULES OF BEING
NO GREATER THAN .5 OVER MET WHICH ALSO MAKES IT MUCH TOO LOW AND IS
LIKEWISE REJECTED. LEAVING DT OF 6.0 WHICH WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2.0 IN
6HRS AND 3.5 IN 24HRS BUT ALSO APPEARS TO HIGH GIVEN INCONSISTENCY OF
THE EYE CAUSED BY THE STRONG CONVECTION/ANVIL EXPANSIONS FROM EYEWALL
CONVECTION INTO THE CLEARING EYE. AS A COMPROMISE THE AVERAGE DT WAS
5.5 OVER THE LAST 6HRS WAS 5.5 WHICH STILL EXCEEDS RULES BUT IS MORE IN
LINE WITH ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN MI AND CONVENTIONAL LOOPS. FT
IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1739Z 14.6N 139.3E SSMI
04/1823Z 14.7N 139.0E AMSU


...GALLINA

raw adt now reaching values of 6.3 to 6.7

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC should forecast a category 5 super typhoon. It is intensifying faster than forecast.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And indeed, yes. It is forecast to reach 135 kts then reach category 5 status! Something strong than 140 kts?

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.4N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.8N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.1N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 137.7E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 889 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA currently has the intensity of the storm at 75 kts and 960 hPa. They expect this to peak at 175 km/h and 925 hPa.

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 5 July 2014

<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM)
NW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E135°50'(135.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E133°35'(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E129°10'(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,140kts near Okinawa. I also ask if chasers will go there. For those who may not know where Okinawa is in the graphic,where is says Kadena it is.

[stormcruisin]

JMA is only at 85.5 knots (1 min ) without recon just a lot of guesstimates atm .

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This typhoon is so impressive. It deepened by 38 mb in the past 24 hours, but that's not it yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA is only at 85.5 knots (1 min ) without recon just a lot of guesstimates atm .

Actually, they may be close to JTWC's estimate at 90 kts. The difference is only by 4.5 kts, so nothing major.

[Yellow Evan]

How is this storm not 105 knts 1-min/90 knts 10-min?

[mrbagyo]

looks like josh morgerman and co. are planning a visit in Oki.