EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[supercane4867]

TXPZ22 KNES 121810
TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 12/1745Z

C. 15.5N

D. 104.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS WRAP OF JUST OVER 1 AT 1.1 FOR AT DT=4.0. MET
AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Odile looks awful.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the northerly shear
has shifted westward in tandem with the upper-level low over
central Mexico, and is impeding the entire western portion of
Odile. TAFB and SAB current intensity estimates are 45 and 65 kt
respectively, and the objective ADT intensity estimate is 57 kt. As
a compromise, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt. The
upper-level low over central Mexico is weakening and slowly lifting
northwestward which should allow the cyclone to be in a more
conducive environment with a more diffluent pattern aloft
and decreased shear. Therefore, strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, Odile will be traversing
cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady
weakening trend. The intensity forecast is an update of this
morning's advisory and is near the SHIPS statistical/dynamical
model.

Odile has temporarily halted, but the 12-hour averaged motion is a
westward drift at 2 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over
northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next
several days, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate
northwestward through day 5. The dynamical guidance remains
relatively unchanged on this forecast synoptic pattern, and the new
official forecast is basically an update of the previous package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.7N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 22.4N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[supercane4867]

Exposed LLC?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

While the center of Odile is still outside of the main convective
area, the cyclone has recently developed a strong curved convective
band over the eastern semicircle. This suggests that the vertical
wind shear is decreasing. The various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 65 kt, and there has
been little change in these estimates since the last advisory.
Based on this, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. The cirrus
outflow is improving and is now good to excellent in all directions
except the north.

Odile has started a slow northwestward motion of 315/3 during the
past several hours. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over
northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula soon, which is
expected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward for the next
several days. The guidance shows a little more spread than before,
and it is also showing a somewhat faster forward speed after 72
hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the right based on the
current position and motion, and is a little faster than the
previous forecast after 72 hours. The new track forecast is in the
center of the track guidance envelope.

The large-scale models suggest that Odile should be in a light
shear environment for the next 48 hours while the cyclone passes
over sea surface temperatures near 29 deg C. This should allow
steady strengthening. Despite this, most of the intensity guidance
shows less intensification than it did during the previous cycle.
The intensity forecast still calls for a peak of 90 kt in 48 hours,
but shows a slower development rate than before. After the peak,
Odile should weaken when it encounters cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.2N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 20.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[supercane4867]

[hurricanes1234]

I have doubts about this system achieving Category 2 status.

[TheStormExpert]

I have doubts about this system achieving Category 2 status.

Why? The E. Pacific season has been surprising us all with intense storms. Odile is looking somewhat intimidating to me ATM.

[Yellow Evan]

I have doubts about this system achieving Category 2 status.

It's looking much better now. I'm pretty confident we are still going to see a major.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What a dramatic improvement in the span of a few hours--we'll see if this organizational trend lasts, unlike the one that started this morning and ultimately ended with Odile's exposed circulation.

[Kingarabian]

Guess the GFS was on to something.

[supercane4867]

Guess the GFS was on to something.

And 00z GFS finally has Odile much weaker...It's nowcasting time

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 16:14:43 N Lon : 105:22:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 991.9mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.8 4.5

Center Temp : -76.5C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.5 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 130541
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...ODILE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 13/0545Z

C. 16.2N

D. 105.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/4.0/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CENTER 1/3 DEGREE INTO DG FOR DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE.
13/0424Z AMSU PASS SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/0107Z 16.0N 105.1W SSMIS
13/0424Z 16.0N 105.0W AMSU


...SALEMI

20140913 0545 16.2 105.2 T3.5/4.0 15E ODILE

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 16:18:12 N Lon : 105:26:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 988.3mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.7

Center Temp : -79.8C Cloud Region Temp : -81.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.7 degrees


Perfect.

EP, 15, 2014091306, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1054W, 60, 988, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 150, 180, 80, 1007, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, M,
EP, 15, 2014091306, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1054W, 60, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 60, 40, 30, 1007, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, M,

[wxmann_91]

I have doubts about this system achieving Category 2 status.

It's looking much better now. I'm pretty confident we are still going to see a major.

Eh, I dunno. It looked nice last night too. These bursts of convection consisting of single thunderstorms aren't going to cut it. We need a real inner core, and this just doesn't have one right now (one just needs to look at the microwave to realize this).

Maybe this will manage to reach Cat 2. I wouldn't count on anything higher.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE NOW A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 105.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO
SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE...SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The satellite presentation of Odile has changed quickly during the
past few hours, and the convective pattern now consists of a CDO
pattern with the center underneath the convective canopy. Satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 06Z, and
on this basis Odile is upgraded to a hurricane for this advisory.
Given that the shear has decreased and the cyclone is situated over
SSTs of around 29C, conditions are favorable for at least steady
intensification. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates a 57 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. However, most
of the intensity guidance is less aggressive. Also, a TRMM pass
around 04Z suggested that the low-level center was displaced a
little to the west of the mid-level center, suggesting that the
inner core of Odile may not be aligned. The NHC intensity forecast
has been adjusted upward in the short term to account for the
observed intensification, but still shows a peak at 90 kt in 48
hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters and weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is near the high
end of the intensity guidance and is close to the SHIPS model and
the FSU Superensemble.

The initial motion estimate is 315/04. Odile should accelerate
northwestward today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast
of the cyclone. However, significant spread develops in the model
guidance after 24 hours, with the latest ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL
solutions show a track farther to the right, closer to or over
portions of Baja California. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and
HWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope with a track
well west of Baja California. These differences appear to be due to
variability in the western extent of the subtropical ridge north of
Odile and how fast a mid-latitude trough approaches the U.S. West
Coast late in the period. The ECMWF model has shifted sharply to the
right this cycle, with a more progressive trough turning Odile
toward the north-northwest late in the period. The new NHC track
forecast is an update of the previous one through 48 hours, and is a
little to the right of the previous track after that time, close to
the TVCE consensus and the FSU Superensemble. Given the spread in
the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast,
including the potential threat to Baja California, is below normal.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the southern part of the
Baja California peninsula. Additional watches and/or warnings could
be needed for portions of Baja California later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.4N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 21.3N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 23.8N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 26.0N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ODILE is exploding.