WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Major typhoon of 100 knots right over Rota...

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Fun Times!!! Here we go...

[euro6208]

000
WGMY60 PGUM 050524 AAA
FFAMY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
324 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH TYPHOON VONGFONG POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARIANAS...

.TYPHOON VONGFONG CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UP TO 6 HOURS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
THE EYE OF VONGFONG.

GUZ001>004-051800-
/X.EXT.PGUM.FF.A.0002.141005T1200Z-141006T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
324 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CHST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS THE MARIANAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...GUAM...
ROTA...SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

* FROM 10 PM CHST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED ROADS AND PAY ATTENTION TO STREAM AND
RIVER LEVELS. IF YOU ARE IN A MUDSLIDE PRONE AREA...MAKE PLANS
TO MOVE TO SAFER GROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

[euro6208]

Eye of Vongfong...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.6N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.0N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.0N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 147.1E.
TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN
AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Dvorak ranging from 5.0 to 5.5 (90 - 102 knots)

TPPN10 PGTW 050627

A. TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 05/0532Z

C. 13.2N

D. 148.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
B YIELDS A CF OF 5.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0153Z 12.9N 149.3E AMS2
05/0311Z 13.0N 149.1E GPMI
05/0327Z 13.0N 148.9E ATMS
05/0429Z 13.0N 148.2E MMHS


SCHALIN

TXPQ22 KNES 050324
TCSWNP

A. 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 05/0301Z

C. 12.9N

D. 149.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED CENTER WITH .5 ADDED FOR
BANDING. PT=5.5. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. CLOUD FILLED EYE OCCASIONALLY
SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

Looks like closest point of approach is now 5 am tomorrow morning, 11 hours from now...

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdXL-j6nBuk[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCrVWAKfiX0[/youtube]

[euro6208]

00Z much farther south takes it through the Rota Channel

[euro6208]

Interesting they mentioned PINHOLE EYE...

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED FEEDER BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED
CONVECTIVE TOPS FEEDING INTO A PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE ON THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN
IMPROVED NORTHEASTWARD CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL. TY 19W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TY 19W TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY, REACHING 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
C. TY VONGFONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96, AS VWS INCREASES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050929
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON VONGFONG ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192014
800 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG HEADING TOWARDS ROTA AND THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...
SAIPAN AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 147.5E
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 185 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.5 DEGREES EAST.

VONGFONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
VONGFONG JUST NORTH OF ROTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. VONGFONG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM CHST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING.


$$

ZIOBRO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FINALLY..

TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 5 October 2014

<Analyses at 05/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N13°10'(13.2°)
E147°50'(147.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N440km(240NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E144°50'(144.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E141°50'(141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E136°50'(136.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

[cycloneye]

euro6208.stay safe there.

Yeah,finnally JMA did it.

[Dave C]

From what I see on radar it looks like there's an larger outer eyewall that has formed. Anyone else see this?

[cycloneye]

From what I see on radar it looks like there's an larger outer eyewall that has formed. Anyone else see this?

I also see that occurring. It looks like the eye will pass over Rota or just south of that island.

[Dave C]

That would explain loss of eye on imagery, also may rake northern Guam with it's larger eyewall.

[euro6208]

Guam is now in Condition of Readiness 1 (COR1), which means damaging winds are expected to impact the island within 12 hours.

[euro6208]

Typhoon chaser and fellow storm2k member...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 051130
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON VONGFONG LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
930 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG HEADING TOWARDS ROTA IN THE SOUTHERN
MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
AS OF 6 PM...SAIPAN EMO REPORTS THAT ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN HAVE
BEEN PLACED IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1.
AS OF 7 PM...GUAM OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTS THAT GUAM HAS
BEEN PLACED IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN
THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUAM... ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARIANAS. PLEASE
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5N...LONGITUDE 147.5E...OR ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND 185
MILES EAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 105 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS FOR THE MARIANAS
AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON VONGFONG
WILL CAUSE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY. HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY...KEEPING NETWORK
COMMUNICATIONS AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE FOR EMERGENCIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-051930-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
930 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SOON OCCUR. ALL EVACUEES SHOULD
QUICKLY ARRIVE AT THEIR DESIGNATED SHELTER. EVERYONE SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND MOVE INSIDE.

LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT AND
THEIR CREWS SHOULD ALREADY BE SAFELY WITHIN LAND BASED SHELTERS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG APPROACHES...SUSTAINED STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. POORLY CONSTRUCTED TIN ROOF HOMES MAY BE DESTROYED.
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE POWER
OUTAGES WITH SOME DOWNED POWER POLES. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF
HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. SOME TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET AS TYPHOON
VONGFONG PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 AM MONDAY.

...FLOODING...
ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM
CONTINUES. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF
AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.


$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-051930-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
930 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DANGEROUS TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL SOON OCCUR. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
QUICKLY MOVING TO SAFETY WITHIN THEIR HOME OR SHELTER. ONCE
INSIDE...ENSURE ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS ARE SECURED BEFORE DANGEROUS
WINDS ARRIVE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.

DO NOT GO OUTSIDE INTO THE EYE OF TYPHOONS. WITHIN THE EYE...CONDITIONS
CAN BECOME TEMPORARILY CALM...WHICH CAN BE MISLEADING. ONCE THE
EYE PASSES...THE WINDS WILL CHANGE DIRECTION AND QUICKLY INCREASE
AGAIN TO DANGEROUS SPEEDS.

BE AWARE THAT THE LOSS OF COMMERCIAL POWER CAN HAPPEN QUICKLY.
KEEP EMERGENCY GEAR HANDY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT AND THEIR CREWS SHOULD
ALREADY BE SAFELY WITHIN LAND BASED SHELTERS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
RIDE OUT THIS STORM ON YOUR VESSEL.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG APPROACHES...SUSTAINED CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 140 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW TYPHOON FORCE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE OF SOME HOMES COULD CAUSE
SEVERE INJURIES OR POSSIBLE DEATH. PERSONS STRUCK BY AIRBORNE
DEBRIS RISK INJURY AND POSSIBLE DEATH. NUMEROUS TIN ROOF HOMES OF
POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE DESTROYED OR SEVERELY
DAMAGED...LEAVING THEM UNINHABITABLE. SOME ROOFS AND EXTERIOR
WALLS WILL FAIL. NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. POTABLE WATER
COULD BECOME SCARCE AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL. MANY
TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED AND BLOCK NUMEROUS ROADS.
COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
15 AND 23 FEET AS TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES MONDAY MORNING.
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 AM MONDAY.

...FLOODING...
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM.
SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-051930-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
930 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SOON OCCUR. ALL EVACUEES SHOULD
QUICKLY ARRIVE TO THEIR DESIGNATED SHELTER. EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND MOVE INSIDE.

LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT AND
THEIR CREWS SHOULD ALREADY BE SAFELY WITHIN LAND BASED SHELTERS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG APPROACHES...SUSTAINED STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 90 MPH ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE TINIAN CHANNEL.
WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIN ROOF HOMES OF POOR CONSTRUCTION COULD
SUSTAIN SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND WALLS...AND COULD BECOME
UNINHABITABLE. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...
CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME DOWNED POWER POLES. NUMEROUS
LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. SOME TREES WILL BE
UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. COMBINED
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND
18 FEET AS TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 AM MONDAY.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORM. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

$$

[cycloneye]

19W VONGFONG 141005 1200 13.8N 146.7E WPAC 90 956