CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Recent microwave pass reveals a developing eyewall feature

[Alyono]

recon had best be accelerated. This could be coming inland Friday evening based upon the latest guidance

[CrazyC83]

I agree they should push that first Recon flight up a day if possible so we have it on Thursday if it is likely to come in faster.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF has a catastraphic major hurricane approching Big Island from the southeast making Iselle look like a rain shower

[CrazyC83]

Any chance this could just miss the Big Island SW and then go straight into - or curve into - Oahu?

[Alyono]

the only way I can see Oahu getting hit is from the east

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.8mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.1 4.1

Center Temp : -76.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[JtSmarts]

Ana is really compact so far as ts winds only extend 35 miles from the center. I expect that will have expanded by the time recon gets there.

[Kingarabian]

Any chance this could just miss the Big Island SW and then go straight into - or curve into - Oahu?

The HWRF made it look like a possibility yesterday. Now it keeps inching closer and closer to the big island.

I wonder what the Euro will show.

[gatorcane]

Any chance this could just miss the Big Island SW and then go straight into - or curve into - Oahu?

The HWRF made it look like a possibility yesterday. Now it keeps inching closer and closer to the big island.

I wonder what the Euro will show.

12Z Euro missing the Big Island to the south but not by much.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is in the HWRF camp. Although much weaker.

12z Euro keeps Ana weak for some reason until it pass the Big Island to the south.

[wxman57]

Latest CPHC track is a little more than 24 hours slower than the consensus guidance they mention in their discussion. Ana could hit on Saturday morning, not Sunday afternoon as CPHC is indicating.

[gatorcane]

Latest CPHC track is a little more than 24 hours slower than the consensus guidance they mention in their discussion. Ana could hit on Saturday morning, not Sunday afternoon as CPHC is indicating.

12Z Euro has it passing just south of the Big Island in less than 96 hours.

[supercane4867]

I won't even take ECMWF into account right now since it's showing the storm way too weak

[Kingarabian]

Latest CPHC track is a little more than 24 hours slower than the consensus guidance they mention in their discussion. Ana could hit on Saturday morning, not Sunday afternoon as CPHC is indicating.

For the initial advisory on Ana when it was a depression, the CPHC had this track:




That seemed the most plausible.

[wxman57]

It almost seems that the CPHC is indicating a slower movement so as to not cause any alarm across Hawaii until its track is more certain. That's the only reason I can think of to indicate such slow movement. No guidance indicates a Sunday afternoon or Monday morning arrival time.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts at 18z Best Track:

CP, 02, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1439W, 55, 997, TS

[Kingarabian]

Up to 55kts at 18z Best Track:

CP, 02, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1439W, 55, 997, TS

Eye like feature on visible, evident eyewall in microwave imagery, ADT CI has 4.0, and SAB has 4.0.

TXPN26 KNES 141826
TCSCNP

A. 02C (ANA)

B. 14/1800Z

C. 14.0N

D. 143.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...ANA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED AND COLD CDO. VIS IMAGERY
SHOWS NEARLY SYMMETRIC CDO 1.75 DEGREES IN DIAMETER FOR DT=4.0. THERE
HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT OVERSHOOTING TOP..OR HOT TOWER..FOR AT LEAST PAST
SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS ALSO SOME BANDING WRAPPING INTO
CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MET=3.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/1524Z 13.8N 143.4W SSMIS


...RUMINSKI

[CrazyC83]

Based on that Dvorak data, it is a toss up between 60 and 65 kt, although given the eye feature appearing 65 kt seems reasonable.

[Kingarabian]

I think it'll be too late to have Recon on Thursday if landfall were to occur on Thursday. We need it tomorrow.