ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z China CMA Global Model has a 92kt Hurricane into Panama City Bch. to Destin area come next Tuesday!

[Dean4Storms]

Has anyone seen an FIM run?

[jlauderdal]

The 00z China CMA Global Model has a 92kt Hurricane into Panama City Bch. to Destin area come next Tuesday!

yep, its going to smash through that frontal system

[NDG]

if you guys really follow the vorticity on the European it shows the main vorticity to track across the Yucatan into the NW Caribbean off of Nica/Honduras border as a piece of energy does get absorbed by the trough/front but the energy left behind just like GFS shows it to organize some more.

[stormlover2013]

Lol cmc model is the astros of baseball lol horrible

[NDG]

http://i60.tinypic.com/14tmotf.jpg
what's left over and merges with the front is by no means a hurricane on the EC.

Low resolution Euro map is useless.

[blp]

Looking at the 850 vorticity, the 00z Euro takes the BOC system and stretches it out after making landfall with the Yucatan and splits the energy but leaves the low level voriticity to spin back up in the NW Carribean. For all the GFS has been bad this year, it has been leading the charge in showing this scenario. I would not discount the leftover NW carribean scenario just yet.

Leftover energy that stays in the NW Carribean:

[tolakram]

If you look at the Euro vorticity loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014102100&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

It looks to me the storm the Euro finally develops near the end of the run is directly related to 93L, as suggested by blp. I guess 93L could be with us for a while here.

[ronjon]

Yeah the situation has always been with the global models that a piece of energy will be left behind in the western Caribbean under rather weak steering currents. What we are really speculating is what's the ultimate strength and track of the leftover energy. I think the models haven't quite figured out what's gonna happen after 5 days - which is pretty typical.

[gatorcane]

http://i60.tinypic.com/14tmotf.jpg
what's left over and merges with the front is by no means a hurricane on the EC.

Spiral you are right - no hurricane but like others have pointed out the ECMWF has a similar solution now to the GFS with carrying the low-level vort from 93L into the NW Caribbean but it doesn't show it developing much beyond maybe a depression (at least on this run). Best to use the PENN state site for looking at the details:



Oh and the GFS has not backed down from the NW Caribbean hurricane possibility 06Z GFS below with a 985MB cane moving slowly north. Showed the same thing on the 00Z GFS run too and the past several runs before that actually.

[tropicwatch]

What a mess!

[gatorcane]

Has anyone seen an FIM run?

00Z below with a cyclone heading slowly north:

[gatorcane]

Lol cmc model is the astros of baseball lol horrible

00Z CMC 168 hours below:

[SFLcane]

Some models even taking this back into the e-pac. I still dont buy any strengthening Storm in the carribbean. GFS has been horrific

[Hurricaneman]

The models are indicating that the path and intensity are going to be unpredictable once in the Western Caribbean so what I believe is all options are on the table even dissipation

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[Blown Away]

NCEP has 93L sitting in NW Caribbean in 7 days... Generally moves it slowly ENE across the Yucatan to the 7 day point...


TAFB says "Possible Tropical Cyclone" on East coast of Yucatan in 72 hours...

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN now ends over NW Caribbean... TVCN consensus is usually where the NHC would follow...


12z Models...


12z Intensity... A few more models now showing moderate TS...

[floridasun78]

12z Intensity... A few more models now showing moderate TS...

none show as hurr in 12z Intensity.

[AdamFirst]

12z GFS is rolling

Through 96 hours, same story. Bulk of energy pulled up into the front with a developing area in the NW Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity... A few more models now showing moderate TS...

none show as hurr in 12z Intensity.

True, but compared to previous intensity forecasts there are more models showing TS than before... Just a trend to follow...