WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 22W - Tropical Depression

#101 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:58 am

mrbagyo wrote:WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST
TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
REFLECTS AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING STR THROUGH TAU 72, AT WHICH TIME
TD 22W WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. EXPECT TD
22W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TAU XX, WHERE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
LEADS TO THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, WHICH IS
CONSERVATIVE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FAST TRACK
SPEEDS, HOWEVER, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM REACHES A COL AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROUNDING THE STR AND RECURVING OR CONTINUING TO THE
WEST
.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 5TH DAY FORECAST DUE
TO A LACK IN INITIAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 96.//
NNNN


That's old...

Discussion #2 should be out in a few minutes...
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Re: WPAC: 22W - Tropical Depression

#102 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:00 am

Here's your latest discussion...

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
SOUTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. A 010415Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WHICH COINCIDES WITH A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EVIDENT IN THE
302242Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED TCB AND A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) FROM PGTW, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 22W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 135-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24, THEREAFTER,
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY DUE TO IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED
BAROCLINICITY. BECAUSE OF THE SURGE EVENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:29 am

Yikes on the JMA track. :eek:

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 1 December 2014
<Analyses at 01/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°10'(5.2°)
E151°25'(151.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 01/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°00'(6.0°)
E148°30'(148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 02/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°50'(6.8°)
E145°25'(145.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°00'(8.0°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°30'(9.5°)
E135°25'(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

Image
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#104 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:35 am

Much closer to land

Image
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#105 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:45 am

Whoa 06z GFS rolling...at 186 hours it looks like a typhoon is left out by the trough and is trying to break its way into a rebuilding STR... could threaten the southern Japanese islands in this scenario if it pulls further north :double: Nevertheless, this is one noticeable difference from the previous runs...
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#106 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:59 am

:uarrow: What? Is it its proximity to the Philippines?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:02 am

TS Warning for YAP State.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
800 PM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

...HAGUPIT NOW A NAMED TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...5.2N 151.4E

ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND WOLEAI
ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 870 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 960 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.4
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT SOUTH OF PULUWAT AND
SATAWAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR WOLEAI AND FARAULEP WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:05 am

JTWC refers to a Northeast surge event the cause for HAGUPIT to weaken a little.What is that a trough?

IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED
BAROCLINICITY. BECAUSE OF THE SURGE EVENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.//
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Re:

#109 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:07 am

spiral wrote:JMA track above is similar to GFS.

Image
unified model with a weakened Str 5/12/ :D


Image
GFS :D :wink:

V'S
Image
EC :grrr:

You don't have to get mad at a model's prediction. The NWS, JMA and JTWC are actually leaning on the ECMWF.

JMA has it closer to the northern part of the Visayas.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:08 am

cycloneye wrote:JTWC refers to a Northeast surge event the cause for HAGUPIT to weaken a little.What is that a trough?

IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED
BAROCLINICITY. BECAUSE OF THE SURGE EVENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.//

That's bad news for us.

INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:27 am

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 011029
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

...HAGUPIT NOW A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF CHUUK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PULUWAT AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE...AS
WELL AS SATAWAL...FARAULEP...WOLEAI...FAIS...ULITHI AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND WOLEAI
ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 870 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 960 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PULUWAT TUESDAY
MORNING AND SOUTH OF SATAWAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE A TYPHOON
WHEN IT PASSES BETWEEN WOLEAI AND FARAULEP WEDNESDAY.

...PULUWAT...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AROUND 40
MPH SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TS HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF PULUWAT...HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD PUT
PULUWAT IN OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IT IS ADVISED TO
SECURE ANY LIGHT OUTSIDE OBJECTS THAT MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN
OVER. PROTECT PROPERTY AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL ADVERSE
WEATHER AND ROUGH SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN VEER TO EAST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH BY NOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 T0 25 MPH BY SUNSET.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF
9 TO 12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
MINOR INUNDATION ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG
WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

...SATAWAL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SECURE
ANY LIGHT OUTSIDE OBJECTS THAT MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN OVER.
PROTECT PROPERTY AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL ADVERSE WEATHER
AND ROUGH SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN VEER TO EAST AND PEAK AT 35 TO 45 MPH TUESDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 12
TO 15 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MINOR INUNDATION AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED
ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. REVIEW YOUR
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A TYPHOON. IF
NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO EAST AND PEAK AT 35 TO 45 MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT FARAULEP...AND BACK TO WEST AND PEAK AT 35 TO 45 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WOLEAI. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AT FARAULEP AND SOUTHWEST AT
WOLEAI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...FAIS AND ULITHI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REVIEW YOUR
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A TYPHOON. IF
NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO EAST AND PEAK AT 55 TO 70 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM CHST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:40 am

Even a pro met who was in favor of the GFS solution says that the ECMWF is more likely. This is due to the ridging to the north.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA3r-NSLuVI[/youtube]
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Re: Re:

#113 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:17 am

spiral wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
spiral wrote:JMA track above is similar to GFS.

You don't have to get mad at a model's prediction. The NWS, JMA and JTWC are actually leaning on the ECMWF.

JMA has it closer to the northern part of the Visayas.


Who is mad at the model my learned friend its just a quote :lol:



Image
How will the cold advection surge from NW be bad for you ? if anything it will help erode and shift the STR further to the east.


Can you give me the link to the prognosis verifying JMA is leaning on the EC for a landfall?

EC IMO is leaning on the MT's position for there track.

Just look at their 5 day forecast. No need for prognosis. It's more weight on EC but hybrid of both EC and GFS
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:17 am

12z Best Track:

22W HAGUPIT 141201 1200 5.6N 150.7E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:52 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track:

22W HAGUPIT 141201 1200 5.6N 150.7E WPAC 35 996


They updated the latitude.

22W HAGUPIT 141201 1200 5.5N 150.7E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:54 am

spiral wrote:How will the cold advection surge from NW be bad for you ? if anything it will help erode and shift the STR further to the east.


Can you give me the link to the prognosis verifying JMA is leaning on the EC for a landfall?

EC IMO is leaning on the MT's position for there track.



The cold surge will not only weaken the STR, it will also weaken the cyclone itself. I find the GFS run realistic too with its recurve scenario but not with it maintaining strong typhoon intensity. There is hefty of wind shear in the northern latitudes and along with the anticipated cold surge, I don't think there will be anything left of the storm to even become a extratropical low..... Remember Bopha when it reintensified over South Chine Sea and recurved NE? It just dissipated completely. No typhoon can match such unfavorable condition up north...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:55 am

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 1 December 2014
<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°25'(5.4°)
E150°40'(150.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°20'(6.3°)
E147°40'(147.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°05'(7.1°)
E144°35'(144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°55'(8.9°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E132°55'(132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:04 am

Image

Map of micronesia...currently south of chuuk...

line of fire...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:06 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:07 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011301
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (22W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
1100 PM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

RESIDENTS OF YAP SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM HAGUPIT. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND
TUESDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...WOLEAI...FAIS AND
ULITHI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...5.7N 150.6E

ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 170 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND WOLEAI
ABOUT 665 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 745 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 805 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 895 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT SOUTH OF PULUWAT AND SATAWAL ON
TUESDAY AND NEAR WOLEAI AND FARAULEP ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT
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