mrbagyo wrote:WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST
TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
REFLECTS AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING STR THROUGH TAU 72, AT WHICH TIME
TD 22W WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. EXPECT TD
22W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TAU XX, WHERE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
LEADS TO THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, WHICH IS
CONSERVATIVE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FAST TRACK
SPEEDS, HOWEVER, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM REACHES A COL AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROUNDING THE STR AND RECURVING OR CONTINUING TO THE
WEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 5TH DAY FORECAST DUE
TO A LACK IN INITIAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 96.//NNNN
That's old...
Discussion #2 should be out in a few minutes...
Nevertheless, this is one noticeable difference from the previous runs...
What? Is it its proximity to the Philippines?
