ATL: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

Plane flying back to base

You can see it at graphic I posted at recon thread.

Why is it near 30N?

Base is above the 30N latitude.

[Meow]

Base is above the 30N latitude.

Didn’t the plane investigate 90L? So the recon may be cancelled again?

[cycloneye]

Base is above the 30N latitude.

Didn’t the plane investigate 90L? So the recon may be cancelled again?

They turned around as the 2 PM TWO said,there are no thunderstorms around the low.

[SeGaBob]

They need to quit playing around and investigate 90L now... it will be too late if they don't hurry up.

[davidiowx]

I wouldn't even bother. It looks like it is about to move ashore as we speak.

[Alyono]

this isn't a sheared TC... its a convectionless swirl

[HurricaneTracker2031]

It would be way too late for them to investigate it. 90L would be onshore. The next recon they could send out would probably be tomorrow, and that's if they wanted too.

[SeGaBob]

This might not get classified the way it appears on satellite. Maybe areas along the coast will report sustained winds of TD or weak TS force and maybe it will be classified post season.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like we are starting off where we left off back in 2013.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Looks like we are starting off where we left off back in 2013.

yea lol. it looks that way.

[chaser1]

recon is flying into THAT?

Isn't there a convective requirement for a TC?

Many tropical cyclones were sheared. Why can’t this sheared system be a tropical cyclone?

"....in a meeting? I understand...., well just have Jack Beven call me later so I know where to text my Casio watch barometric pressure and hand held anemometer reading when this squall moves onshore; oh by the way, this little food shack here in Veracruz is pretty cheap - do you suppose I can have a couple more beers and maybe send NHC a receipt? Should be a little cheaper than the cost of a full recon invest....."

[HurricaneTracker2031]

recon is flying into THAT?

Isn't there a convective requirement for a TC?

Many tropical cyclones were sheared. Why can’t this sheared system be a tropical cyclone?

"....in a meeting? I understand...., well just have Jack Beven call me later so I know where to text my Casio watch barometric pressure and hand held anemometer reading when this squall moves onshore; oh by the way, this little food shack here in Veracruz is pretty cheap - do you suppose I can have a couple more beers and maybe send NHC a receipt? Should be a little cheaper than the cost of a full recon invest....."

lol is that an actual quote...

[supercane4867]

How could a weak swirl become a TS under 40kt+ of increasing windshear?

[wxman57]

This might not get classified the way it appears on satellite. Maybe areas along the coast will report sustained winds of TD or weak TS force and maybe it will be classified post season.

There isn't a specific wind criterion for tropical depression classification. A depression requires a well-defined low-level circulation (check) along with organized convection around the LLC (nope). If it develops convection around/near the LLC prior to it moving ashore then it cold be reclassified as a TD.

[TheStormExpert]

This might not get classified the way it appears on satellite. Maybe areas along the coast will report sustained winds of TD or weak TS force and maybe it will be classified post season.

There isn't a specific wind criterion for tropical depression classification. A depression requires a well-defined low-level circulation (check) along with organized convection around the LLC (nope). If it develops convection around/near the LLC prior to it moving ashore then it cold be reclassified as a TD.

So are you saying it already could of been a TD?

[Hurricane_Luis]

This is what all the fuss is about, really. Its moving towards the coast.

[Meow]

How could a weak swirl become a TS under 40kt+ of increasing windshear?

If the RSMC Miami were operated by JMA.

[northjaxpro]

This is what all the fuss is about, really. Its moving towards the coast.

The western edge of the naked swirl is already on the coast, which is why the plane went back to the base. It makes sense. No deep convection at all near the LLC, all of it sheared off well to the east.

Well, wxman57, is it time to bring in Bones yet, or not bring him out since this apparently will not get designated a TD?

[Nimbus]

There were reports yesterday that claimed tropical storm force winds probably were occurring at the surface in the NE quadrant. I voted the first Atlantic named storm would not occur till July 11 so all the shear just never allowed for a well stacked named storm.

[chaser1]

"....in a meeting? I understand...., well just have Jack Beven call me later so I know where to text my Casio watch barometric pressure and hand held anemometer reading when this squall moves onshore; oh by the way, this little food shack here in Veracruz is pretty cheap - do you suppose I can have a couple more beers and maybe send NHC a receipt? Should be a little cheaper than the cost of a full recon invest....."

lol is that an actual quote...

No... Simply "tongue & cheek". Point of course being, for the cost of a steak sandwich and a couple beer..., we might save a perfectly good $20,000 recon flight for something better than a questionable Tropical Depression just about to make landfall. That is assuming increasing 30 knot upper level shear doesn't rip apart whatever's left of its convection, before coming ashore.