EP, 15, 2014091312, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1058W, 65, 983, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 150, 170, 90, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, M,
EP, 15, 2014091312, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1058W, 65, 983, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 60, 50, 40, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, M,
EP, 15, 2014091312, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1058W, 65, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, M,
yet
20140913 1200 16.8 105.7 T4.5/4.5 15E ODILE
TXPZ22 KNES 131217
TCSENP
A. 15E (ODILE)
B. 13/1200Z
C. 16.8N
D. 105.7W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON LG EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/0919Z 16.4N 105.4W AMSU
...SCHWARTZ
EPAC: ODILE - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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Here was the intermediate, BTW
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131144
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...ODILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE...SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131144
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...ODILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE...SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139407
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane
HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
The first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has
continued to become better organized. The central dense overcast
has become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is
consistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC. A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind
speed. Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so
given the very warm waters and low shear. Steady or even rapid
intensification appears to be most probable during that time, and
the NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be
above almost all of the guidance. Odile could start to weaken on
Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert,
with generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC
forecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus.
The TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of
310/5. Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a
mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However,
significant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24
hours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur.
The subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with
any potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making
this forecast rather complicated. With little change to the
guidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to
the previous one. Given the spread in the guidance, confidence
remains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including
the potential threat to Baja California. Depending on the 1200 UTC
model cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for
portions of the Baja California peninsula later today.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details. This is a similar pattern
which occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of
Dolly.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
The first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has
continued to become better organized. The central dense overcast
has become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is
consistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC. A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind
speed. Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so
given the very warm waters and low shear. Steady or even rapid
intensification appears to be most probable during that time, and
the NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be
above almost all of the guidance. Odile could start to weaken on
Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert,
with generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC
forecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus.
The TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of
310/5. Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a
mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However,
significant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24
hours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur.
The subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with
any potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making
this forecast rather complicated. With little change to the
guidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to
the previous one. Given the spread in the guidance, confidence
remains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including
the potential threat to Baja California. Depending on the 1200 UTC
model cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for
portions of the Baja California peninsula later today.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details. This is a similar pattern
which occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of
Dolly.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 16:33:03 N Lon : 105:56:49 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 982.3mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.5 4.6
Center Temp : -75.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 127km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 16:33:03 N Lon : 105:56:49 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 982.3mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.5 4.6
Center Temp : -75.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 127km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
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somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 35
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane
It's go time! 
Regarding some discussion earlier of Odile riding up the Gulf of California, aside from the fiendishly difficult angle another factor to limit that scenario is that the Gulf is entirely surrounded by deserts. Sometimes a small hurricane in there can blow up into a short-lived major before dry air gets to it, but a large hurricane like Odile would have a large part of its' circulation over desert and mountains and would probably be too disrupted to maintain a real deep intensity even with its center over those SSTs and even if it did take that perfect track angle.
On the other hand a large storm like Odile would be more likely to survive a trip to the US in a weak state as opposed to the complete dissipation a smaller system would endure.
Regarding some discussion earlier of Odile riding up the Gulf of California, aside from the fiendishly difficult angle another factor to limit that scenario is that the Gulf is entirely surrounded by deserts. Sometimes a small hurricane in there can blow up into a short-lived major before dry air gets to it, but a large hurricane like Odile would have a large part of its' circulation over desert and mountains and would probably be too disrupted to maintain a real deep intensity even with its center over those SSTs and even if it did take that perfect track angle.
On the other hand a large storm like Odile would be more likely to survive a trip to the US in a weak state as opposed to the complete dissipation a smaller system would endure.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Still needs to pop an eye
W - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 16:38:56 N Lon : 106:03:17 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 980.7mb/ 69.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.4 4.4
Center Temp : -72.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 127km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.4 degrees
W - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 16:38:56 N Lon : 106:03:17 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 980.7mb/ 69.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.4 4.4
Center Temp : -72.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 127km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.4 degrees
0 likes
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supercane4867
- Category 5
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...ODILE GETTING STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...ODILE GETTING STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Been waiting for Odile to crank, looks like it is. Once that eye clears, 8th major probably. Folks in the Baja should keep their eyes closely to this one.
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supercane4867
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Yellow Evan
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TXPZ22 KNES 131820
TCSENP
A. 15E (ODILE)
B. 13/1800Z
C. 16.6N
D. 105.9W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON BL SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH BL EYE
EMBEDDED BY WH. PT=4.5. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/1308Z 16.4N 105.8W WINDSAT
13/1341Z 16.4N 106.2W SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
wtf. Why did they adjust down?
TCSENP
A. 15E (ODILE)
B. 13/1800Z
C. 16.6N
D. 105.9W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON BL SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH BL EYE
EMBEDDED BY WH. PT=4.5. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/1308Z 16.4N 105.8W WINDSAT
13/1341Z 16.4N 106.2W SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
wtf. Why did they adjust down?
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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EP, 15, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1060W, 75, 974, HU, 34, NEQ, 170, 150, 160, 90, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1060W, 75, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 40, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1060W, 75, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1060W, 75, 974, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 40, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1060W, 75, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
Odile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible
satellite pictures showing an intermittent eye. The latest
intensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as
the initial wind speed. With the hurricane moving over very warm
waters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid
intensification seems likely. Despite the seemingly favorable
environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance
brings Odile to a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS rapid
intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30
kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. After
considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest
NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the
first 24 hours, and could still be too low. After that time, Odile
is forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to
pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected
after that time. The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the
previous one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC
prediction and the intensity consensus.
After moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be
moving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt. The hurricane
should accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge
strengthening over the southern United States. Guidance has shifted
toward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally
less ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico. The new forecast
is adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the
previous forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California
Sur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and
the ECMWF model. The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward
closer to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for
portions of Baja California Sur. A hurricane warning could be
issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends
in the model guidance continue.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
Odile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible
satellite pictures showing an intermittent eye. The latest
intensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as
the initial wind speed. With the hurricane moving over very warm
waters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid
intensification seems likely. Despite the seemingly favorable
environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance
brings Odile to a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS rapid
intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30
kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. After
considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest
NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the
first 24 hours, and could still be too low. After that time, Odile
is forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to
pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected
after that time. The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the
previous one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC
prediction and the intensity consensus.
After moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be
moving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt. The hurricane
should accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge
strengthening over the southern United States. Guidance has shifted
toward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally
less ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico. The new forecast
is adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the
previous forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California
Sur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and
the ECMWF model. The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward
closer to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for
portions of Baja California Sur. A hurricane warning could be
issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends
in the model guidance continue.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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Yellow Evan
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Odile would be the 8th major hurricane if that holds up? That has to be near record territory.
The record is 10, set in the 1992 Pacific hurricane season.
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