WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2014 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 13:56:58 N Lon : 146:26:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.2mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -78.5C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.4 degrees

[euro6208]

Not much happening now with continuous showers at times heavy and winds are getting stronger gusting in the 30's. I think the main threat for Guam is just plenty of rain which could cause flooding and it is coming...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 051307
TCUPQ1

TYPHOON VONGFONG (19W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP192014
11 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...1056 PM CHST...1256 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 1056 PM CHST...1256 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG
(19W) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 128 MILES EAST OF
THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN ELEVATION OF 11500 FEET. THE SMALL
EYE HAS BECOME PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN THE 0.5 DEG ELEVATION VIEW AND
SO THE DIAMETER COULD NOT BE DETERMINED.

MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED AT 16 MPH (14KT) IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
(285 DEGREES).

SUMMARY OF 1056 PM CHST...1256 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 146.4E
ELEVATION...11500 FEET

ABOUT 112 MILES...080 DEGREES...E OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS FAIR.

$$

EDSON/ZIOBRO

[Dave C]

Guams winds are westerly now and nw on Rota. There still seems to be at least a portion of that tiny eyewall on the radar Euro posted. Maybe radar isn't picking up the entire radius. Seems headed straight towards Rota.

[cycloneye]

After the eye pass Rota or just south of it,the backside looks solid of heavy rain and winds.

[cycloneye]

Guams winds are westerly now and nw on Rota. There still seems to be at least a portion of that tiny eyewall on the radar Euro posted. Maybe radar isn't picking up the entire radius. Seems headed straight towards Rota.

I see a small hole of the radar beam so is not picking the whole thing.

[cycloneye]

If there is a silver line that is the Typhoon is moving fairly fast so the effects wont last for many hours.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051314
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON VONGFONG ADVISORY NUMBER 11B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192014
1100 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG HEADING TOWARDS ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...
SAIPAN AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CHST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 146.4E

ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1100 PM CHST...1300 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.4 DEGREES EAST.

VONGFONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
VONGFONG OVER OR CLOSE TO ROTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. VONGFONG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM CHST.

$$

ZIOBRO

[cycloneye]

The 1500 UTC JTWC warning graphic.

[euro6208]

Eye just east of Rota and conditions are getting worser now...Continous heavy showers with stronger winds gusting close to 40 mph...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 051516 CCA
TCUPQ1

TYPHOON VONGFONG (19W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP192014
1 AM CHST MON OCT 6 2014

...1251 AM CHST...1451 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 1251 AM CHST...1457 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG
(19W) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN ELEVATION OF 7300 FEET. THE SMALL
EYE HAS BECOME PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN THE 0.5 DEG ELEVATION VIEW AND
SO THE DIAMETER COULD NOT BE DETERMINED.

MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED AT 18 MPH (16KT) IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
(285 DEGREES).

SUMMARY OF 1251 AM CHST...1457 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.0N 145.8E
ELEVATION...7300 FEET

ABOUT 70 MILES...065 DEGREES...ENE OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS FAIR.

$$

EDSON/ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Impressive lightnings...

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF shows a strong Vongfong at 168 hours, with a similar track as Phanfone:

[euro6208]

Pressure at Anderson (North end) at 996 mb with gust to 55 mph...Guam Airport (Central Part) at 998 mb with gust to near 40 mph as intense spiral bands moves through...

Not so much happening in Rota as they are in an area of light convection...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

12Z has Vongfong following in the footsteps of Phanfone and deepens it to 930 mb near Okinawa...

[CrazyC83]

We should get some good data from Guam. Do the radar velocities help at all with intensities?

[Dave C]

Too bad no recent data from Rota Tiny inner eyewall piece about an hour from Rota, EWRC fail kept this storm in check.