ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

Looking at this graphic you can see how the models a few days ago had this ramping up into a Hurricane. If it had just made it a little further west say 76 for instance we would be talking about a different ball game here. Man, we have been lucky here in the CONUS.

[Frank2]

I know this a mile off-topic, but the Atlantic shearing of Cristobal isn't the only story in town - I just received this link from one of Jim Cantore's tweets that shows Karina being sheared starting yesterday and ending today - wow!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... _184_X.gif

[tropicwatch]

I think she just did a strip tease

[jlauderdal]

Looking at this graphic you can see how the models a few days ago had this ramping up into a Hurricane. If it had just made it a little further west say 76 for instance we would be talking about a different ball game here. Man, we have been lucky here in the CONUS.

real real lucky, especially in the sunshine state..its been damn near impossible to get anything to even approach

[gatorcane]

cristobal's circulation has continue to become less defined today as shear and dry air rip into it....however, there is some deep convection blowing up off to it's SE, if the shear does relax as the models project...within the next 24 hours, could see him ramp up but as others have mentioned seems like he will need to get out of the tropics and into the subtropics north of 30N to see anything.

[tolakram]

I assume this is going to stay tropical? Looks odd to me.

live visible http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

[abajan]

Any news about the flooding situation in the southeastern Bahamas? Seems like the rains of Cristobal have just been sitting there all day.

[blp]

I assume this is going to stay tropical? Looks odd to me.

live visible http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

It looks to be opening up. Much more broad in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

EDIT: It could have tucked under the deep convection though hard to tell. Sucks we lose visible soon.

[johngaltfla]

Interestingly enough, the local mets on Saturday said that the models they follow indicated a fish and they were right. Now we get to watch the leftover storms from the cold front which seem to be lingering south of Louisiana.

['CaneFreak]

Yes. I think it is tucking under the deep convection to the southeast of the original circulation. That tends to happen in a moderate northwesterly wind shear regime.

It looks to be opening up. Much more broad in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

EDIT: It could have tucked under the deep convection though hard to tell. Sucks we lose visible soon.

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop, center less defined and has opened up as BLP has mentioned, slow north movement:

[NDG]

It might seem that is opening up but it could be that is relocating, look for another LLC to take over, possibly closer to the convection, IMO.

[Riptide]

This center drifting has impacted the models, 18z GFS is decently west and slower from the start.

[Hammy]

Best to use rapidscan imagery in this situation, all signs from that still point to a very vigorous circulation, even if a bit broad at the center.

[Nimbus]

Any time there is a storm at this latitude its like post traumatic stress for Floridians That lived through hurricane Andrew, Cristobal hit the glass ceiling at the exact same latitude just over 25 degrees.

I can remember Andrews pressure was down to 996 MB's and forecast to move north, but that was an asymptotic model situation that went bad.

Convection is firing closer to the LLC same as last night so probably a repeat with a further drop in pressure overnight. Shear is probably letting up that trough looks about done.

[crimi481]

Yes -I mentioned Andrew yesterday - and about a new Low center near 22- 23.

[Airboy]

Recon confirms it was sucked a bit south/east, pretty much sitting on N25 line right now,

[Nimbus]

Yes -I mentioned Andrew yesterday - and about a new Low center near 22- 23.

NHC said the storm was tilted by shear, with the low level circulation north of the mid level and upper level circulation.

If the distance remains great enough a new LLC can form under the mid level circulation.

I think the system is getting too well stacked for that to be happening (at the moment).

[tolakram]

End of the day visible, time sensitive, but I think it's almost certainly a relocation of the LLC under the convection. Big blowup as well.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[floridasun78]

let see hurr hunter see