EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2014081718, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1290W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 70, 1008, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 41 43 47 48 48 47 49 46 43
V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 41 43 47 48 48 47 49 46 43
V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 12 8 8 8 12 16 16 13 16 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 2 2 4 6
SHEAR DIR 82 86 87 101 98 117 101 103 59 97 82 112 103
SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5

[Kingarabian]

Looks like shear is abating.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like shear is abating.

Karina looks weird as a whole. It's LLC is displaced, yet it's well organized. Probs some moderate wind shear.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Karina's convective pattern has continued to wax and wane over the
past 6 hours. Another burst of deep convection with cloud tops to
-80C has developed near and to the west through southwest of the
partially exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center. Recent
objective intensity analyses from CIMSS AMSU and ADT yield estimates
of 42-44 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass at 1847 UTC indicated
several 36-37 kt surface wind vectors northwest and west of the
center. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity is
held at 40 kt.

Karina appears to have made the much expected turn toward the
west-southwest, and the initial motion is now 255/11 kt. Karina is
expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest and slow down
considerably over the next 72 hours as a broad high pressure system
builds to the north and west of the cyclone. Karina could even stall
on Day 3 as steering currents collapse. After that, a large
developing disturbance located about 700 n mi east of the cyclone is
forecast by all of the global models to evolve into an unusually
large low pressure system that will gradually pull Karina back
to the east-northeast and northeast on Days 4 and 5. The official
forecast track has been shifted farther west, but not as far west
as the consensus model TVCE due to the uncertainly involved in
exactly how much influence and timing that the large disturbance
east of Karina will have on the tropical cyclone.

Moderate easterly mid- to upper-level shear is expected to affect
Karina for the next 18 hours or so, which should inhibit any
significant intensification. After that, however, the shear is
forecast by the SHIPS model to decrease to less than 10 kt, during
which time some intensification could occur while the cyclone
remains over marginal SSTS of at least 26C. By 48 hours and beyond,
the easterly shear is expected to increase again due to strong
upper-level outflow associated with the aforementioned large
disturbance to the east of Karina. The increasing shear, coupled
with decreasing SSTs, should cap any intensification that might have
occurred. The GFDL and HWRF models bring Karina back to hurricane
strength at around 120 hours, but this seems unlikely due to the
cyclone being over sub-26C SSTs at that time. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and TO the ICON
intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.7N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.3N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.3N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.4N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 16.7N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 17.1N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172044
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Karina's convective pattern has continued to wax and wane over the
past 6 hours. Another burst of deep convection with cloud tops to
-80C has developed near and to the west through southwest of the
partially exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center. Recent
objective intensity analyses from CIMSS AMSU and ADT yield estimates
of 42-44 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass at 1847 UTC indicated
several 36-37 kt surface wind vectors northwest and west of the
center. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity is
held at 40 kt.

Karina appears to have made the much expected turn toward the
west-southwest, and the initial motion is now 255/11 kt. Karina is
expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest and slow down
considerably over the next 72 hours as a broad high pressure system
builds to the north and west of the cyclone. Karina could even stall
on Day 3 as steering currents collapse. After that, a large
developing disturbance located about 700 n mi east of the cyclone is
forecast by all of the global models to evolve into an unusually
large low pressure system that will gradually pull Karina back
to the east-northeast and northeast on Days 4 and 5. The official
forecast track has been shifted farther west, but not as far west
as the consensus model TVCE due to the uncertainly involved in
exactly how much influence and timing that the large disturbance
east of Karina will have on the tropical cyclone.

Moderate easterly mid- to upper-level shear is expected to affect
Karina for the next 18 hours or so, which should inhibit any
significant intensification. After that, however, the shear is
forecast by the SHIPS model to decrease to less than 10 kt, during
which time some intensification could occur while the cyclone
remains over marginal SSTS of at least 26C. By 48 hours and beyond,
the easterly shear is expected to increase again due to strong
upper-level outflow associated with the aforementioned large
disturbance to the east of Karina. The increasing shear, coupled
with decreasing SSTs, should cap any intensification that might have
occurred. The GFDL and HWRF models bring Karina back to hurricane
strength at around 120 hours, but this seems unlikely due to the
cyclone being over sub-26C SSTs at that time. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and TO the ICON
intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.7N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.3N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.3N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.4N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 16.7N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 17.1N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

I love Stewarts discussions.

[Yellow Evan]

I love Stewarts discussions.

I like all NHC discussions. Better than every other agency IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2014081800, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1300W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 70, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Karina's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the
past several hours. The system remains a sheared tropical cyclone,
with all of the deep convection displaced to the west-southwest of
the low-level center. The intensity is kept at 40 kt for this
advisory, which is only slightly above the most recent Dvorak
estimates and is consistent with earlier scatterometer data. The
easterly shear over Karina is due to a combination of an
upper-level anticyclone to the north-northeast and the outflow from
a developing system to the east. The global models indicate that
the anticyclone will shift eastward and weaken, which could
result in some decrease in shear. However since Karina will be
traversing marginal sea surface temperatures during the next
several days, only slight strengthening is predicted. This is the
same as the previous official wind speed forecast and very close to
the latest intensity model consensus.

The storm continues to move west-southwestward with gradually
decreasing forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 255/10
kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should
maintain a west-southwestward to westward heading for the next
couple of days. However, the interaction with the developing
cyclone to the east and another, weaker, disturbance to the west of
Karina should result in a slowing of the forward motion. Around
the end of the forecast period, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly
flow feeding into the larger cyclone to the northeast should cause
Karina to reverse its heading and move northeastward. The new
official track forecast is somewhat farther west of the previous one
at days 2-5, but not as far west as the latest track model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.5N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

Deep convection associated with Karina has been pulsing during the
last several hours and it remains displaced to the southwest of the
low-level center due to persistent shear. The initial intensity
remains 40 kt, but this could be a little generous based on the
latest Dvorak classifications. The shear is expected to slacken
some during the next day or two, which could allow the storm to
restrengthen a little. However, significant strengthening seems
unlikely since Karina could be affected by some dry air to its west
while it remains over marginal sea surface temperatures. The NHC
intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the
consensus model IVCN.

Karina is moving west-southwestward at about 10 kt, and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted
during the next 24 hours. The storm is likely to drift westward or
become stationary by the middle to late portion of the week when the
steering currents collapse. By the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone is expected to get pulled northeastward when it begins to
interact with the large depression to its east. The new official
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.1N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2014081812, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1320W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 70, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during
the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep
convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This
was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud
pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.
Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation
is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of
the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression
12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent
additional strengthening.

Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina
is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern
will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west
for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the
forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,
Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD
12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result
in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little
motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin
to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on
the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is
much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other
hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 16.8N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2014081818, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1327W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 70, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Storm Karina has become substantially better organized today. The center is no longer exposed, and in fact, there's an eye-like feature discernible on satellite imagery. It wouldn't surprise me to see this become a strong tropical storm (65-70 mph) again before wind shear increases and the storm dies.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if it's going to be Karina that turns out to be the storm that kills Twelve=E. Really looks better today. Some shear is still evident.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with ~50 knts right now at least.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Karina is a much smaller storm than Twelve-E, I wouldn't count on it. Twelve-E is hindering itself right now because of its massive size.

[Kingarabian]

What was thought to be an eye appears to be a dry spot.