EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

This is what the GFS shows at its peak. It shows a 992 mbar low making landfall.

which way that 992 low go to get to the tehunatepec...did it come from caribbean or gom? or is it going against the traffic .....i think it is our next to be whatever as it should be coming from tehuantepec to pacific...... watching close, as it is in our back yard, and the wannabe boris is south of that....more looking like south of huatulco at this look-see. please tellme no one has spiked my sghettis with magical mushrooms.....
omy i need a super strong umbrella this year....
ye think we see letter U this year?? is starting out with a bang..

sorry about edit--i went to passage weather--they show this blow coming into pacific thru tehuantepec from land vs caribbean side, and joining forces with our wannabe boris.then back thru tehuantepec against norm, and over to fla....they got this model from somewhere. what is this possibility as a likely path?
i am interested in these tehuantepec winds, as they seem to affect much of our weather here on this coast from cabo corrientes to huatulco

It'll be coming through the Pacific side probably. There is no letter U on the hurricane lists, FYI.

[Extratropical94]

Code Red: 60/80

A low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southeast of
Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become better defined during the day.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for
development...and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next few days while the low drifts northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rains over
portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this
coming week, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[hurricanes1234]

I think we will have Two-E by tomorrow.

Not official.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS



CMC

[zeehag]

oops, then,,,,,V.....

[hurricanes1234]

oops, then,,,,,V.....

???

I am not yet keen on this developing into a hurricane. I would estimate a peak of 50-65 mph.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014060100, , BEST, 0, 118N, 942W, 25, 1007, DB

[xtyphooncyclonex]

93E is disorganized as of now. Some shear to its north may hinder development, organization and further intensification unless it moves south. I guess the chances of this becoming a hurricane is very less likely. We should wait a few more days for this to intensify and become a TS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure about this developing tomorrow, it's too disorganized convectively-speaking (though an earlier ASCAT pass showed a closed circulation already). Probably more towards Monday or Tuesday. This is going to be a very slow-moving system.

[hurricanes1234]

I agree. Whatever measly convection that's present is very messy and disorganized.

[cycloneye]

Not sure about this developing tomorrow, it's too disorganized convectively-speaking (though an earlier ASCAT pass showed a closed circulation already). Probably more towards Monday or Tuesday. This is going to be a very slow-moving system.

Will the shear abate like Ship has?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system, located about 300 miles
south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. However, environmental conditions
should gradually become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while
the low drifts northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this system will produce locally heavy rains, especially in
mountainous areas, across portions of western Central America and
southeastern Mexico this coming week, causing life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Not sure about this developing tomorrow, it's too disorganized convectively-speaking (though an earlier ASCAT pass showed a closed circulation already). Probably more towards Monday or Tuesday. This is going to be a very slow-moving system.

Will the shear abate like Ship has?

Yes. Its currently being sheared by an anticyclone to its northwest -- Amanda's, actually -- but the models forecast one of its own to form as we head into next week, dramatically lowering shear.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low drifts generally
northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system
is expected to produce locally heavy rains across portions of
western Central America and southeastern Mexico this week. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in
areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[hurricanes1234]

Looks much better this morning, maybe I'm thinking a renumber by the next advisory time or the one after?

Not official.

[hurricanes1234]

93E INVEST 140601 1200 12.0N 94.7W EPAC 25 1007

No change.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Starting to see some better structural organization as wind shear lowers.

[zeehag]

nhc showing a second forming system on caribbean side of tehuantepec....

[cycloneye]

nhc showing a second forming system on caribbean side of tehuantepec....

You can follow all about that on this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116356&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 12z GFS keeps the system offshore for the next week, gradually developing up until landfall. Think it's being too conservative on intensity though.

Regardless, this is going to be bad for Mexico. Lots of rain.

[hurricanes1234]

From the 11:00 AM outlook. Basically as someone posted in another thread, this invest is just sitting here doing next to nothing. I haven't seen any improvement in organization since this morning and it looks slightly worse (in my opinion only). I'm not saying it wouldn't develop, but it would be good news for Mexico if it does not.

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low drifts northwestward,
and then northward later in the week. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Brown