CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I think Recon could stay in Hawaii after they sample Iselle on Wednesday.

They will likely need to stay there. They start sampling at about 145W?

I think it's as soon as it crosses 140W.

It's usually around 140W, yea. Still IMO too soon to say if it will need Recon.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS and 18z GFS are both aggressive with this.

[cycloneye]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a low pressure system located about 725 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite data suggest that the circulation of
the low is not particularly well defined at the moment. However,
environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional
development, and only a slight increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression during the next day
or two while the low moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Despite it's LLC being displaced, they increased the odds. Interesting.

[somethingfunny]

The 12z Euro now also strikes Hawaii directly.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 97, 2014080300, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1132W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Yellow Evan]

A broad low pressure area located about 700 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has
recently become less organized, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more favorable for development during the next
couple of days. A tropical depression is still expected to form
early next week while the system moves to the west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has a well-defined center and circulation, but
the associated showers and thunderstorms are being displaced to the
west of the center by strong upper-level winds. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is still expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Doomsday run



Scary,



Landfall as a hurricane.



God, 0z shows pretty much the same thing

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have been developing closer to the center
of the low pressure area located about 750 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, the
overall shower activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or
two while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has a very close call of hurricane to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Peak



Passes south of Hawaii. Ignacio 85-like.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 97, 2014080318, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1162W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Yellow Evan]

12z HWRF

[Steve820]

This continues to be very organized, I wouldn't be surprised if it's upgraded to a depression by 5 or 8 PDT. I sure hope we see another major out of this!

[cycloneye]

TD later tonight

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with a low pressure area located about 775 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have more concentrated
and better organized this afternoon. If current trends continue,
tropical depression advisories would be initiated this evening or
later tonight while the low moves generally westward around 10 mph.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 97, 2014080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1164W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 220, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Probs a TD

[Yellow Evan]

Shear could be a problem.


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 39 44 58 69 73 78 82 83 84 81
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 39 44 58 69 73 78 82 83 84 81
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 47 52 55 57 58 59 60 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 14 12 15 19 15 7 7 8 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 2 0 0 -4 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 69 58 51 48 41 30 48 41 47 346 15 20
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.8

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become
more concentrated this afternoon and evening. The deep convection
has also become better organized, taking on the form of a band with
increasing curvature over the western half of the circulation.
Dvorak intensity estimates are at T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB
and TAFB, respectively. Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated at this time, and the initial intensity of the depression
is set at 30 kt.

Some scatter in center fixes over the last 24 hours has made the
initial motion more uncertain than normal, but an estimate of
270/09 seems reasonable. The depression is situated to the south of
a subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from western
Mexico that should cause the depression to move westward or perhaps
even west-southwestward during the next day or two at a faster
forward speed. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone will become
caught under the eastern end of a subtropical ridge forming over the
central Pacific, with an orientation of the ridge such that a
west-northwestward heading should commence. This first NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and near but
slightly south of the ECMWF/GFS solutions.

Persistent moderate northeasterly shear has been affecting the
system for a couple of days now, and according to SHIPS model output
only a marginal decrease in this shear is likely during the next 3
days. Still the cyclone will be over warm waters and encountering
an environment of higher moisture, so steady intensification is
expected. Although sea surface temperatures will be gradually
decreasing after day 3, the shear should nearly diminish and
thermodynamic factors are expected to still be favorable enough to
allow for some additional strengthening or in the very least a
steady state cyclone. One caveat to intensity forecast late in the
period could be the effect of the cold wake left behind by Hurricane
Iselle. The intensity forecast is close to the multi-model
consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.5N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.3N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.1N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.0N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 126.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 13.8N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 14.5N 136.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 15.0N 142.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

Another big Hawaii threat looming.