ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#21 Postby curtadams » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:16 am

It's collapsing because once offshore, it no longer has the tremendous surface heat of the Sahel to drive updrafts. The ocean off the West African coast is relatively mild because of currents from the north. This happens to almost every wave that moves off the coast there - huge convection ashore which sputters and weakens after it moves offshore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#22 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:37 pm

This has a large circulation. It should develop if it refires.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:39 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance is expected
to be slow to occur over the next several days while it moves
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#24 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:41 pm

not believing the 12Z guidance I take it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#25 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:41 pm

Down to 30. :)

Latest

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#26 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance is expected
to be slow to occur over the next several days while it moves
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#27 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:42 pm

tolakram wrote:Down to 30. :)

Latest

http://imageshack.com/a/img661/6702/2c97O4.jpg


That's interesting especially since the 12Z guidance trended a little more bullish...
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#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:44 pm

I don't see anything developing before reaching the Caribbean at least. The deep tropics are just incredibly hostile right now. This might just ultimately be more EPAC juice.
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#29 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:13 pm

convection refired

Not sure what Pasch seen to lower than probabilities
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Re:

#30 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:16 pm

Alyono wrote:convection refired

Not sure what Pasch seen to lower than probabilities

You just beat me to this as I was going to post the same thing :)

Here is a saved looped so members can see this convection firing - this is a very good sign:

Image
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Re:

#31 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:17 pm

Alyono wrote:convection refired

Not sure what Pasch seen to lower than probabilities


Would you say 90L is more likely to develop within 5 days, or develop in 6 or more?
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#32 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:27 pm

I'm thinking maybe an even money shot during the next week, but it shouldn't become that intense. Maybe a TD/weak TS if it develops
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:28 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014090418, , BEST, 0, 132N, 201W, 20, 1009, LO
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Re:

#34 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:58 pm

Alyono wrote:convection refired

Not sure what Pasch seen to lower than probabilities

Probably basing it off of the trends of every TW so far this season struggling to develop until it approaches the Lesser Antilies/Caribbean Islands.
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#35 Postby AEWspotter » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:12 pm

For what it's worth, SHIPS is forecasting shear below 20 kts (and speed-adjusted shear < 10 kts) for the forecaseeable future. I like the chances for development. But, the system might struggle with some dry air, which is why none of the statistical models develop 90L into a hurricane. The question is whether or not this system will be able to sustain itself as it crosses the Atlantic.

SHIPS output: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _ships.txt

The GFS is bullish on this system deepening near 50W. Systems always seem to get their act together in this "go zone".
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Re:

#36 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:30 pm

Alyono wrote:I'm thinking maybe an even money shot during the next week, but it shouldn't become that intense. Maybe a TD/weak TS if it develops


What you make of overall steering? gfs ensembles all show some type of westward bend towards Bahamas.
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#37 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:30 pm

I personally would of went 20/50% on this one but that's just me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#38 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:34 pm

curtadams wrote:It's collapsing because once offshore, it no longer has the tremendous surface heat of the Sahel to drive updrafts. The ocean off the West African coast is relatively mild because of currents from the north. This happens to almost every wave that moves off the coast there - huge convection ashore which sputters and weakens after it moves offshore.
That's true. I've seen it happen numerous times.
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Re:

#39 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:43 pm

AEWspotter wrote:For what it's worth, SHIPS is forecasting shear below 20 kts (and speed-adjusted shear < 10 kts) for the forecaseeable future. I like the chances for development. But, the system might struggle with some dry air, which is why none of the statistical models develop 90L into a hurricane. The question is whether or not this system will be able to sustain itself as it crosses the Atlantic.

SHIPS output: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _ships.txt

The GFS is bullish on this system deepening near 50W. Systems always seem to get their act together in this "go zone".


My question is how much can we by with the SHIPS shear and 700-500 mb RH forecast when the BAMM model track, which its intensity forecast is currently run on, shows it gaining much more latitude than what the global models are showing.
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#40 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:50 pm

Here is the most updated SAT image I could find as the NHC floaters are a couple of hours behind. The convection continues to expand near the center of the broad low:

Image
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