ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

Another storm fails the poof test by the looks of it.

It is too early to be talking poof, it is very common for convection to collapse once it leaves the land and transistions to being supported by the water environment. We need to see how it rebounds just like 90l that came back. Unlike 90l though model support is strong for it to survive. I still think the models are over doing it a bit on intensity. It won't ramp up that quick IMO because it will be a larger system that will take its time to consolidate while dealing with less than conducive environment.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The environment is favorable for slow development of 91L over the next 4 days or so; after that time, dry air will begin to encroach on the system. Shear looks favorable throughout the period.

I could see this becoming a short-lived tropical storm as it slides south of the Cape Verde Islands.

[TheStormExpert]

I predict the NHC will lower 91L's chances to 20/50% in the 2pm TWO. May even see lower than that if model trends continue.

[cycloneye]

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a strong tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved VIS image, not looking too bad - look at all the dust just to the north:

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2014090718, , BEST, 0, 91N, 171W, 25, 1009, DB

[TheStormExpert]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

Uncle SAL looks mighty hungry!

[Batt2fd]

[Nimbus]

The last official position was 17.1W so they must have that kind of precision this early.
The models all send the circulation WNW above 15N with possibly more SAL exposure.

I was looking at that noon hot tower near ~ 22 W and thinking any LLC might roll west from there and stay closer to the ITCZ.

Loos about 19W now should be clearer by the time it crosses 30W.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic just off
the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the
next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2014090800, , BEST, 0, 92N, 185W, 25, 1009, DB

[gatorcane]

Latest saved image, convection building a little NW of the "best track" location:

[floridasun78]

i dont think we will td out 91l because going same area that kill 90l

[WPBWeather]

i dont think we will td out 91l because going same area that kill 90l

Don't say never. "Uncle SAL" may not be so bad after all, as the LEADING probability shows more moisture ahead.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html (see 24-48 hour chart).

[Hammy]

Instability is still below normal and shear is still above normal in much of the Atlantic, including where 91L is headed, based on those graphics. Doesn't paint a very favorable picture in the short term.

[tolakram]

Conditions are better than when 90L left the coast.

Flash Loop of Mid level water vapor: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5.html

Live 60 frame loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=60

At this point in 90L's life the GFS had already reduced it to nothing, so that is different as well.

Does this mean things WILL actually be different? /shrug

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N17W TO THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 9N17W FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW WITH
PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CYCLONIC RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-14N E OF
23W...BEING SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N17W TO THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 9N17W FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW WITH
PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CYCLONIC RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-14N E OF
23W...BEING SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[YoshiMike]

look at that rotation startin to go!