ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[blp]

GFS shows a small anticyclone right on top of this system - excellent for development:

Indeed starting to build a favorable pocket.

[jlauderdal]

Gotta go with the Euro champ! Maybe a nice breezy day in SFL!! I'll take that... If the BAMS is right, maybe I'll see a nice naked LLC swirl go over Hobe Sound??

Euro has proven just as useless as the rest of the models as far as genesis goes, as it often fails to develop things that form, and meanwhile kept showing hurricanes that never happen. It's all pretty much wait and see at this point, and really only if something forms can the models can be looked to for track guidance.

euro has proven less useless than all the others...

[weatherfanatic]

IMO this storm looks like the first real threat. It looks much better than 91L IMO and only has 20%, that doesn't seem right to me. The loop around from the GOM is what concerns me. I think it may not develop alot like CMC shows until in GOM and then across FL again and up East Coast. I would like to see other models similar so right now its kinda like errr. But I am in the NYC area, and we seem to be having more tropical threats over past several years. CMC is not a good solution for us, especially if itis a tad further west. I will be interested to see what tonights models show. I am normally a Euro guy, GFS then CMC, BUT the sgetti models agree with the CMC which is interesting. Need to watch for sure for east coast FL, west coast of FL and possibly east coast.

[mahicks]

While the CMC seems to blow up everything that Spins, it's track seems logical based on everything else. This run takes it almost to LA and then it runs across the gulf coast and comes thru the big bend of Florida, then exits and runs the EC. If this track is even remotely accurate, it could cause a real mess across several states...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Senobia]

IMO this storm looks like the first real threat. It looks much better than 91L IMO and only has 20%, that doesn't seem right to me. The loop around from the GOM is what concerns me. I think it may not develop alot like CMC shows until in GOM and then across FL again and up East Coast. I would like to see other models similar so right now its kinda like errr. But I am in the NYC area, and we seem to be having more tropical threats over past several years. CMC is not a good solution for us, especially if itis a tad further west. I will be interested to see what tonights models show. I am normally a Euro guy, GFS then CMC, BUT the sgetti models agree with the CMC which is interesting. Need to watch for sure for east coast FL, west coast of FL and possibly east coast.

To do that, 92L would have to:

1. Actually become a system
2. Hold together as it crosses FL, entering the GOM
3. Hold together as it turns back around
4. Hold together as it crosses FL again
5. Hold together as it climbs the coast and reaches NYC

I'm, by no means, a pro-met, but I'd say the chances of that happening are slim to none.

I could be wrong. I probably am. Listen to someone who knows, like the NHC.

[TheStormExpert]

Models never really developing this have had the right idea all along. CMC as always is on steroids.

[WPBWeather]

Models never really developing this have had the right idea all along. CMC as always is on steroids.

[weatherfanatic]

Probably so on the CMC, however if you look at the best analog tracks they almost all go straight north from where 92L is situated. I am a bit confused on how to post graphics here but I saw the best analogs and Bob was #1.

[gatorcane]

[blp]

I was just going to post that image, funny. The BAM suite shows the scenario deeper system will have a SW movement versus a shallower system heading West.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Brian what time do the next model runs start anytime now correct?

[Steve]

NAM should be running, GFS in a bit. Those are the next 2 followed by GEM/CMC.

Fox 8 ran RPM model, and it didn't really do much with it. It drops the energy WSW across Southern Florida late tomorrow and emerges into the Gulf as a wave. Breck was on and said to watch and see what happens when it crosses the Loop Current as obviously any disturbed weather this time of year needs to be watched. The model itself sort of hinted at some curvature to the South as it got to the SC Gulf, but he stopped it there. I did not see any closed isobars. He also noted that due to a progged (by RPM) stall of the front north of here, anything forming could be drawn up toward the weakness. He was non committal. I don't blame him because there is (or has been) very limited model support. It's just watch and see potential for now IMHO which was his main theme-keep up on the weather over the next few days.

This post is not official but is a discussion of a local weather cast.

[Ntxw]

Both models are out, GFS is out far enough. Neither really shows much aside from pulsing convection and gradual slow movement. Pressures in the area are very high so these globals aren't going to show us much unless pressures from it deepens enough. It is a very tiny system.

[Steve]

So the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) simulated radar has two distinct Gulf Systems. The forerunner is the energy in the Western Caribbean which moves in first and heads for South Texas. You can see a hint of rotation. GFS has been piling up energy in the West Gulf for several runs but more stretched out than what the NAM is presenting. However, NAM is mostly disorganized (but with rotation). 92L is a couple of days behind into and across Florida. It is in the SE Gulf by the end of the run at 96 hours (Sunday 7pm CDT).

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... M&ps=model

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF at 24 hours shows a closed low:

[tropicwatch]

Don't know if it will be still sitting there in 24hrs.

[Blown Away]

12z...


12z...


12z...

[tropicwatch]

Surprised some of the models are dropping the re-curve.

[jlauderdal]

00Z ECMWF at 24 hours shows a closed low:

seems to far north but its the euro so will pay attention, interesting it actually closes it off in spite of increasing hostile conditions, doesnt seem plausibale but lets see....system is making very little progress to the west so far today

[jhpigott]

00Z ECMWF at 24 hours shows a closed low:

seems to far north but its the euro so will pay attention, interesting it actually closes it off in spite of increasing hostile conditions, doesnt seem plausibale but lets see....system is making very little progress to the west so far today

Yea, be interested to see what the ECMWF does with 92L in its next run this afternoon or if the next run of the GFS closes it off and holds it stationary for the next 24 hours as well