ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?

At least we will have an official track and increased awareness to the general public of the Caribbean islands and those further upstream possibly in the path.

For example, if this does end up hitting Florida, we are only looking at about 6 days from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

96L is near the 24 hour window from the islands... At the rate it's going it might be a TD/TS by 5am... I say 5am...

[MGC]

Still a sharp trough at the surface....looks like 96L is starting to spin at the mid levels. Doubt it takes too long for it to work its way down to the surface. Convection is currently robust, so I'd guess another 12-24 hours and we'll have a TD. Would not be surprised if recon finds a weak TS tomorrow.......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[northjaxpro]

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?

At least we will have an official track and increased awareness to the general public of the Caribbean islands and those further upstream possibly in the path.

For example, if this does end up hitting Florida, we are only looking at about 6 days from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think Gatorcane NHC will probably wait until at the earliest 11 a.m. tomorrow before pulling the trigger for an upgrade, unless 96L really organizes overnight. This may be a situation in which this may skip the TD designation straight to TS if the organization trend continues by the time Recon gets out there tomorrow.

[Hammy]

Not a prayer. This thing doesn't even have a closed circulation yet. Did you miss the ASCAT posted above? They will have to wait for Recon to get in there tomorrow afternoon if they even fly.

This is organizing pretty quickly, it may not have a fully closed circulation for another day or two, but I see no reason why they wouldn't fly tomorrow.

[dexterlabio]

Right there crossing over 13°N/53°W as the sun set.... just my opinion here....

LOL the last pic cracked me up. Yeah, it may not have a discernible LLCC atm but it has better chance to become a significant TC than Bertha, IMO...

[gatorcane]

There looks to be a deep band of convection firing to the SE of the main blob - could we possibly be seeing the first feeder band taking shape?

[tropicwatch]

It looks like it is coming together quite nicely this evening.

[meriland23]

I wonder if this will be like Arthur in terms of strength ( and possibly track) or worse.

[Bocadude85]

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?

At least we will have an official track and increased awareness to the general public of the Caribbean islands and those further upstream possibly in the path.

For example, if this does end up hitting Florida, we are only looking at about 6 days from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

96L is near the 24 hour window from the islands... At the rate it's going it might be a TD/TS by 5am... I say 5am...

I'd be very surprised to see NHC pull the trigger before recon.

[Evil Jeremy]

What time does Recon fly out tomorrow?

[cycloneye]

What time does Recon fly out tomorrow?

See here

[asd123]

Attention fellow storm2kers, it's important that we not put out advisories unless the criteria are met to create unnecessary hype. But the NHC and other weather officials need to keep a very close eye as this system seems to be rapidly organizing on sat compared to earlier today. Forget about the 5am 11 am 6pm 11pm advisories, if the weather officials deem it necessary they will issue a special advisory.

The Lesser Antilles look to be "relatively" safe should this become a td or ts, as landfall would be expected late Thursday evening or Early Friday Morning.

The General public with absolutely no weather knowledge (I know you storm2kers don't buy into the hype) will watch a weather forecast will listen, but some words like "tropical disturbance" and Florida path will stick out to them and they would think a tropical storm (really an invest disturbance and not an actual ts) is racing towards Florida.

[ozonepete]

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?

At least we will have an official track and increased awareness to the general public of the Caribbean islands and those further upstream possibly in the path.

For example, if this does end up hitting Florida, we are only looking at about 6 days from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

96L is near the 24 hour window from the islands... At the rate it's going it might be a TD/TS by 5am... I say 5am...

I'd be very surprised to see NHC pull the trigger before recon.

As Blown Away said, they may not have much choice because of how close it is to the islands. If it is clear from the satellite presentation and resulting Dvorak numbers overnight that this is a TD and is still intensifying, they may have to go as early as 5AM or soon after. They've had to do this before as we all know.

[hurricanehunter69]

50%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized. Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Looks like I was spot on correct earlier when I predicted it would possibly be 50/70% @ 8pm.

Yeah, but just two dayz ago you said "NO" wave had a chance....? Do you think this system has a chance despite all the negative factors?

[deltadog03]

Its looking pretty good so far. It would appear that all systems are a go for takeoff! A stronger system will be a slower system, so that would put the GOM and FL in bigger threat IMO

[floridasun78]

this could be like second system may gave usa scare after Aurthur Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Look at the conditions above it, wow

[ROCK]

anti-cyclone aloft....couldnt be any better IMO

good to be back!!

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: anti-cyclone aloft....couldnt be any better IMO

good to be back!!

hey rock buddy! good to have you back. And yup, that anti-cyclone aloft is really venting this right now. Also helping it stay symmetric and expand its circulation envelope.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

:uarrow: anti-cyclone aloft....couldnt be any better IMO

good to be back!!

hey rock buddy! good to have you back. And yup, that anti-cyclone aloft is really venting this right now. Also helping it stay symmetric and expand its circulation envelope.

I believe it has. The northern vertex appears to be the new domiant and excellent rotation and convection. However, it is still elongated at this time, but won't be for lo.g once this strengthens more. My next update is at tomorrow evening.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.