WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS backs out from a typhoon scenario. They forecast a tropical storm making landfall in Northern Mindanao. Looks like they are closer to reality this time, as it is too early for a strong typhoon to form.

[dexterlabio]

Latest GFS run still has a weaker storm but is back to a recurve scenario again, which for me is more likely. I won't be surprised at this point if this one ends up to be a weak storm and not a typhoon as what the GFS had shown previously. Also, the circulation could dissipate as it slowly tracks west and whatever moisture that's left could go towards southern Philippines.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[dexterlabio]

So I realized that GFS run looks suspicious as it shows 2 circulation merging into 1. Never sold to that kind of scenario and it never actually happened before.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
153.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.2N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
EQUATOR. THE WEAK CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE WEAK CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Shear preventing system from developing in the near future...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually, shear is rapidly decreasing over the area.

[euro6208]

Looks like a serious rainmaker for the Marianas.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Starting too look way better than yesterday.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2N
153.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO CURVE AND BAND TOGETHER, REMAINS SHEARED - AT LEAST 02
DEGREES NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE MSI LOOP ALSO HINTS AT A
SECONDARY, ALBEIT WEAK, VORTEX EAST OF CHUUK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT, THE LATEST RUN PORTRAYING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

NWS Guam:

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA LATE MONDAY NIGHT SHOWS A CIRCULATION
LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK NEAR 6N156E. ALL MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL IN THAT THEY PLACE THE CIRCULATION CLOSE TO
THIS LOCATION. THE CIRCULATION IS NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE VERY
QUICKLY. THE MODELS AGREE TO MOVE IT OVER CHUUK BY TONIGHT.
MODELS START TO DIVERGENCE SLIGHTLY ON LOCATION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT GENERA LY KEEP IT NOT FAR FROM 9N148E. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
IT STILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N NEAR 9N145E. IT
REMAINS CLOSE TO THIS LOCATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW MODELS
THEN TAKE IT NORTH OF 10N ON SATURDAY. IT EVENTUALLY IS PREDICTED
TO MOVE CLOSE TO GUAM ON SUNDAY. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY
AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IT WILL GO. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH FROM SATURDAY ONWARD TRIED TO CONCENTRATE
ON WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY...THAT IS FROM NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT ANY DIRECT AFFECTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL HOWEVER INCREASE ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. IT IS NECESSARY TO EMPHASIS THAT WHILE THE MODELS MAY
DIFFER IN LOCATION AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THEY ALL AGREE ON
PUMPING UP WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM
AN INCREASED GRADIENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 15 TO
20 MPH TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY SLACK OFF DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
AGAIN BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. SOME MODELS HAVE WINDS HIGHER THAN
THIS SO FORECAST COULD CHANGE LATER TO REFLECT AN INCREASE.

KEPT RAINFALL FORECAST AS IS SINCE IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE OF SEA HEIGHT IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. VAD WIND DATA THIS MORNING ALREADY HINTS AT IT BEING
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS COULD REACH AROUND 14 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION
AND LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK NEAR 6N156E. THE VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE FAVORED THIS AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK EVEN THOUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE NORTH...WITH NO
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. IN THE NEAR TERM...ANY DEVELOPED SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N TO AVOID GETTING SHEARED AWAY.
FOR NOW WE NEED TO FIRST SEE SOME REAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
DECISIONS ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARIANAS MUCH
LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N
154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST
OF CHUUK, FSM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICES. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN
AREA OF SUSTAINED, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A MINIMAL PRESSURE FALL OF ABOUT
ONE MILLIBAR HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT CHUUK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHED THE ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED, MULTIPLE
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AFTER
THREE DAYS AS SURFACE WINDS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISORGANIZED AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS PROHIBITIVELY STRONG, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Currently in a good shear environment but rapidly increasing shear is also expected. Possibly this may become another sheared tropical storm.

[euro6208]

It's the calm before the storm.

GFS showing a slow moving typhoon barreling towards Guam and the CNMI not after dumping ALOT of rain as it starts moving from a stationary state south of the Island Chain!

Wet days ahead!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's the calm before the storm.

GFS showing a slow moving typhoon barreling towards Guam and the CNMI not after dumping ALOT of rain as it starts moving from a stationary state south of the Island Chain!

Wet days ahead!

Actually, GFS is very bullish with this storm, as I said in the previous post. CALM DOWN!

GFS is the only model forecasting this to be a typhoon. They are accurate in predicting the formation of systems but not with intensity at the early part of the year. As what happened to Lingling, it was supposed to be a strong typhoon, but, it turned out to become a weak, sheared and disorganized tropical storm. Also, do not forget that IT IS STILL FEBRUARY. Storms like this RARELY FORM at this time of the year. So, we should not be too confident for a typhoon. You need a full El Nino for this to develop.

About the rain, GFS ONLY FORECASTS LITTLE RAIN and that don't reach the flooding level. They don't reach the 100 mm mark actually. February is one of the driest months in the Western Pacific.

=========================================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

Much better organized...

[euro6208]

It's the calm before the storm.

GFS showing a slow moving typhoon barreling towards Guam and the CNMI not after dumping ALOT of rain as it starts moving from a stationary state south of the Island Chain!

Wet days ahead!

Actually, GFS is very bullish with this storm, as I said in the previous post. CALM DOWN!

GFS is the only model forecasting this to be a typhoon. They are accurate in predicting the formation of systems but not with intensity at the early part of the year. As what happened to Lingling, it was supposed to be a strong typhoon, but, it turned out to become a weak, sheared and disorganized tropical storm. Also, do not forget that IT IS STILL FEBRUARY. Storms like this RARELY FORM at this time of the year. So, we should not be too confident for a typhoon. You need a full El Nino for this to develop.

About the rain, GFS ONLY FORECASTS LITTLE RAIN and that don't reach the flooding level. They don't reach the 100 mm mark actually. February is one of the driest months in the Western Pacific.

=========================================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

YES and YES

I think it's you that should CALM DOWN

I was just stating what GFS sees and not what is likely to happen.

[dexterlabio]

There's just a feeling of rush when models show a storm coming to your place. People tend to anticipate the most extreme possibilities, just like what some people in the Philippines did when both Lingling and Kajiki were about to hit. I mean there were people expecting a Cat2 typhoon or even a supertyphoon in January, which for me was crazier than the scenario being shown by the GFS with this one.


Anyway, whoever is in the path of this disturbance must take precautionary measures.

[dexterlabio]

The formation of this system may help enhance the westerlies, and in part may contribute to the warming of the equatorial Pacific. This can be done faster if the GFS solution of a strong cyclone in South Pacific pans out.


It's interesting that little things like this can contribute to a possible evolution to El Nino this year.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
153.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 150.4E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 251143Z ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
APPROACHES A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, ALLOWING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO SUBSIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Wet morning here as outer bands already reaching the Islands.

Forecast to stall just south of us and generally move north for a WHOLE WEEK...

If that verifies, we are in for ALOT of rain which could cause flooding as grounds are already saturated.

About the rain, GFS ONLY FORECASTS LITTLE RAIN and that don't reach the flooding level. They don't reach the 100 mm mark actually. February is one of the driest months in the Western Pacific.