EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

[TheAustinMan]

Fairly broad circulation as relayed by the latest ASCAT pass.



ASCAT data - http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
Satellite data - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014060118, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

NAM keeps it offshore for a bit.



GFS has it closer to the coast, but moving very slowly. High rain threat IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Starting to think that it won't be until Tuesday or Wednesday when this is classified. Convective activity is lacking and the circulation, while closed, is very broad. This is a classic example of monsoonal development, and systems like these take days to organize substantially (remember Alex 2010?).

[Steve820]

I think this will become a depression tomorrow or Tuesday. I predict a peak of around 50-60 mph. The guys in southern Mexico/Guatemala need to prepare, since it could get destructive or deadly! I think us in SoCal are lucky because the Central Americans are getting from this invest and we're doing this: and !!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This disturbance has changed little over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low drifts northwestward,
and then northward later in the week. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[CrazyC83]

This could be a big land impacting storm though...major flood potential.

[Yellow Evan]

This could be a big land impacting storm though...major flood potential.

Not sure if this is from 93E, but it may have already killed 6:

http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... 6bih%3D635

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

[cycloneye]

No change as it continues stationary.

EP, 93, 2014060200, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO

[Kingarabian]

No change as it continues stationary.

EP, 93, 2014060200, , BEST, 0, 119N, 942W, 25, 1007, LO

Euro so far spot on on it being stationary.

[hurricanes1234]

I know it may be a little early, but I'm starting to question development ever so slightly.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Anticyclonic flow has developed aloft, reducing shear to near 5kt. SHIPS keeps it this low for the foreseeable future.

[cycloneye]

If convection doesn't begin to concentrate over the LLC soon IMO NHC may have to go down from the 70%/90% range that has been for the past 24 hours.

[hurricanes1234]

Why the convection is lacking, I don't know, as the waters are more than warm enough, the shear is low, and the air seems to be reasonably moist. Anyway, if this busts (not saying it would), it would be good news for Mexico.

[CrazyC83]

TXPZ22 KNES 020024
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 01/2345Z

C. 11.8N

D. 93.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
CONVECTION AROUND CENTER. THIS WILL BE FINAL POSITION UNTIL REQUIREMENTS
ARE MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[Yellow Evan]

Why the convection is lacking, I don't know, as the waters are more than warm enough, the shear is low, and the air seems to be reasonably moist. Anyway, if this busts (not saying it would), it would be good news for Mexico.

There'd still be heavy rains regardless.

[SeGaBob]

I personally don't think this will develop...but with the convection being stretched out some a more widespread area will get heavy rain than if it consolidated.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I personally don't think this will develop...but with the convection being stretched out some a more widespread area will get heavy rain than if it consolidated.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why not? It has a few days left over favorable conditions. Wind shear is low and SSTS are very warm.

[Kingarabian]

If convection doesn't begin to concentrate over the LLC soon IMO NHC may have to go down from the 70%/90% range that has been for the past 24 hours.

I think they'll leave it. The system has a defined LLC and any consistent increase of convection will probably put it over the top.

[SeGaBob]

Yellow Evan It hasn't really been taking advantage of these favorable conditions yet...and the convection seems stretched out a lot. Maybe it might start upwelling cooler water because of it moving slow. I do see your point though and I may be wrong.

Edit: I keep spotting spelling problems...