ATL: BERTHA - Models

#41 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:21 pm

12Z NAVGEM keeps the system weaker than the GFS, skirting the NE Leewards and on a WNW heading just north of Puerto Rico. 500MB High centered north of the Bahamas. A lot different upper-air pattern than the GFS.

180 hours below:

floridasun78 · #42 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:33 pm

let see by thur were gfs have system at other Models too

stormlover2013 · #43 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:33 pm

Still a long ways to go, can't trust any model past 7 days!!! It has to develop first!!

#44 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:35 pm

Something that I have noticed during the past 4-5 years when Bermuda has been threaten a lot by tropical systems, especially during 2010 is that the MS river valley and SE US has been dominated by ridging while the troughiness pattern has been more in the western Atlantic into New England in the 2010 season, the Bermuda ridge was for the most part absent. If you noticed this coming trough is not forecasted to sweep on through the western Atlantic which definitely would had convinced me that a recurve out to sea would be the outcome of 93L.

hurricaneCW · #45 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:48 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Still a long ways to go, can't trust any model past 7 days!!! It has to develop first!!

Thank you. Can we at least have an actual system before saying "oh yea this will definitely recurve at so and so". Who knows how things will be a week from now and we've seen plenty of systems forecast to recurve very early only to make it much further west and even Arthur ended of being further west than models said it would initially be.

stormlover2013 · #46 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:55 pm

U got that right, I mean people jump the gun way to much on these model runs

#47 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:10 pm

12Z GFS Ensembles for Leewards/Puerto Rico impact and closest point to the U.S:

144 hours:

192 hours:

#48 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:10 pm

12z GFDL and HWRF runs.
GFDL is crazy, lol.

#49 Postby **xironman** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:22 pm

KWT wrote:CMC comes close to the LA but probably just misses them.

It also blows up a low in the middle of the north Atlantic for no apparent reason.

TheStormExpert · #50 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:25 pm

NDG wrote:Something that I have noticed during the past 4-5 years when Bermuda has been threaten a lot by tropical systems, especially during 2010 is that the MS river valley and SE US has been dominated by ridging while the troughiness pattern has been more in the western Atlantic into New England in the 2010 season, the Bermuda ridge was for the most part absent. If you noticed this coming trough is not forecasted to sweep on through the western Atlantic which definitely would had convinced me that a recurve out to sea would be the outcome of 93L.

Last year's pattern was very similar to this years, only none of the systems that developed held together long enough or managed to get their act together as they got into the west Atlantic.

TheStormExpert · #51 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:27 pm

NDG wrote:12z GFDL and HWRF runs.
GFDL is crazy, lol.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 5c0967.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... f0e8ad.png

How did the GFDL perform with Hurricane Arthur compared to the HWRF.

#52 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:28 pm

12z Euro is on board with developing 93L, the resolution that I am looking at is weaker than the GFS so further south and west than the GFS track.

TheStormExpert · #53 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:28 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Still a long ways to go, can't trust any model past 7 days!!! It has to develop first!!

Thank you. Can we at least have an actual system before saying "oh yea this will definitely recurve at so and so". Who knows how things will be a week from now and we've seen plenty of systems forecast to recurve very early only to make it much further west and even Arthur ended of being further west than models said it would initially be.

Odds favor a recurve anyday over a East Coast hit hence why at least 75% of Cape Verde type systems are Fish! :wink:

#54 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:29 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:12z GFDL and HWRF runs.
GFDL is crazy, lol.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 5c0967.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... f0e8ad.png

How did the GFDL perform with Hurricane Arthur compared to the HWRF.

It was very inconsistent with intensity and track was way off most times, what I remember.

#55 Postby **xironman** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:33 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro is on board with developing 93L, the resolution that I am looking at is weaker than the GFS so further south and west than the GFS track.

Actually makes it into the Caribbean, but super weak.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:38 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC MON JUL 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140728 1800 140729 0600 140729 1800 140730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 33.8W 10.1N 37.0W 10.5N 40.4W 10.7N 44.0W
BAMD 9.8N 33.8W 10.0N 36.4W 10.1N 39.0W 10.3N 41.5W
BAMM 9.8N 33.8W 10.0N 36.5W 10.4N 39.2W 10.6N 42.1W
LBAR 9.8N 33.8W 9.5N 36.7W 9.4N 40.0W 9.3N 43.3W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 40KTS 51KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 40KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140730 1800 140731 1800 140801 1800 140802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 47.5W 10.9N 53.2W 11.0N 57.3W 13.1N 60.6W
BAMD 10.7N 44.0W 12.2N 48.7W 14.5N 52.9W 17.7N 57.1W
BAMM 11.2N 44.8W 12.5N 50.2W 14.2N 55.2W 16.7N 59.8W
LBAR 9.3N 46.4W 9.6N 51.6W 10.6N 55.0W 17.2N 59.4W
SHIP 61KTS 81KTS 90KTS 94KTS
DSHP 61KTS 81KTS 90KTS 94KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 33.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 31.3W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 28.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#57 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:43 pm

xironman wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro is on board with developing 93L, the resolution that I am looking at is weaker than the GFS so further south and west than the GFS track.

Actually makes it into the Caribbean, but super weak.

Yes, that is a big step from the Euro which on yesterday's 12z run only kept it alive for 72 hrs and much weaker than today's 12z run, last night's run it did not even developed it.

#58 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:53 pm

Did anybody notice that several of the GFS ensembles I posted above are quite a bit more west of the operational? Here is another graphic below with some of the ensembles member runs from RAL's site, just in, pink line is operational:

#59 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:55 pm

DAY 7

DAY 6

WPC advertising a sharp NW turn after skirting PR...

TheStormExpert · #60 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:58 pm

SHIPS is going crazy with intensity again I'm assuming.

ATL: BERTHA - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

Who is online