EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Was it a Cat 5? Maybe at 1200Z. But 130 kt is likely generous now.

I think it probably was now that I think about it. I'd go with 125 knts now myself.

[cycloneye]

Was it a Cat 5? Maybe at 1200Z. But 130 kt is likely generous now.

Post season analysis will tell the real story.

[supercane4867]

12Z HWRF initializes Amanda as a Cat.5, 175kt on 850mb level translates to about 140kt at surface

That is just model-analyzed, but 175kt at 850 millibars would support a 140kt Category 5.

While I believe this peaked at 160 mph, there's not quite enough evidence for an upgrade. SAB came in at T6.5/127kt despite TAFB's T7.0/140kt, and UW-CIMSS ADT peaked at T6.9/137kt. This storm is more borderline than Igor.

The NHC did upgrade Elida to 140kt in post-season analyze based solely on one UW intensity estimate of 138kt while TAFB and SAB were at T6.0, but that was more of a pinhole eye scenario.
I agree there's no enough justification for Amanda to be a Cat.5 as of now.

Borderliners:

Amanda - TAFB T7.0 SAB T6.5 ADT T6.9
Igor - TAFB T7.0 SAB T7.0 ADT T6.7
Dora - TAFB T7.0 SAB T6.5 ADT T6.7

[Yellow Evan]

Far from toast.

[Kingarabian]

Eyewall collapsed from the south east.

[RL3AO]

Very very close as to if it reached cat 5. I'm sure they'll take a close look at it in post season. IMO, it was a clear enough T7.0 to go 140kt.

[Yellow Evan]

On the trivia note, Amanda is tied for the 3rd fastest 24 hr intensity jump in terms of wind speed.

1)Linda 97: 90 knts in 24 hours



2)Kiko 83: 75 knts in 24 hours



3)Tied between Amanda and Elida 02



Many other storms RI'd in similar manner (around 60-65 knts in a day), but I'm not listing here. Shows how incredible Amanda is.

[Kingarabian]

I think once a storm reaches a 155 mph, it should be declared a category 5. The rule is a 156mph+... which is fine if you have an abundant resource of recon. But if you're using satellite estimates, a 1mph +/- in wind speed that makes all the difference is pretty tough.

[Bridgeplayer]

Very very close as to if it reached cat 5. I'm sure they'll take a close look at it in post season. IMO, it was a clear enough T7.0 to go 140kt.

The storm intensified too rapidly thus "breaking constraints" to give it a Dvorak of T7.0 at 12Z. Thus gave it an FT of 6.5/6.5 at 12Z with a DT of 7.0. We bypass constraints ONLY if the average of the previous 6 hrs(including classification time) of manually derived DTs is equal the instantaneous DT. In this case it was only 6.4 so constraints were followed.

[Yellow Evan]

I think once a storm reaches a 155 mph, it should be declared a category 5. The rule is a 156mph+... which is fine if you have an abundant resource of recon. But if you're using satellite estimates, a 1mph +/- in wind speed that makes all the difference is pretty tough.

You have to draw the line somewhere.

[supercane4867]

It seems that TAFB doesn't follow the constraints rule as much as other agencies do and thus more willing to give out T7.0s

EP, 01, 201405251200, 10, DVTS, CI,, 1170N, 11110W,, 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK,,,,,,,,,,,,,, E, TAFB, SS, I , 1, 7070 / / / / /,,, GOES15, CSC, T,

A consensus among estimates is always needed anyway

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

I think once a storm reaches a 155 mph, it should be declared a category 5. The rule is a 156mph+... which is fine if you have an abundant resource of recon. But if you're using satellite estimates, a 1mph +/- in wind speed that makes all the difference is pretty tough.

You have to draw the line somewhere.

Either make it 160mph or 155mph. 156mph is too much of a tight margin.

[RL3AO]

I think once a storm reaches a 155 mph, it should be declared a category 5. The rule is a 156mph+... which is fine if you have an abundant resource of recon. But if you're using satellite estimates, a 1mph +/- in wind speed that makes all the difference is pretty tough.

Should a 110 mph storm be a category 3 because its "only 1 mph" away? A Cat 5 on the SSHWS is a 1 min wind of 137kt or greater. The fact that its only 1 mph away is just the nature of converting units and rounding.

[RL3AO]

I think once a storm reaches a 155 mph, it should be declared a category 5. The rule is a 156mph+... which is fine if you have an abundant resource of recon. But if you're using satellite estimates, a 1mph +/- in wind speed that makes all the difference is pretty tough.

You have to draw the line somewhere.

Either make it 160mph or 155mph. 156mph is too much of a tight margin.

Remember the scale is in knots. We just convert to mph for convince.

[Kingarabian]

Remember the scale is in knots. We just convert to mph for convince.

Ah yeah forgot they base everything off knots. It is what is then.

[richard-K2013]

Let's see the MODIS/Terra Satellite imagery. It's so beautiful, but I think it has no chance to become a category 5 hurricane. Seems it's weakening now and the north of the system is not favorable for it to develop.

[Kingarabian]

Still in pretty good shape, I have to agree.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 01, 2014052600, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1114W, 125, 941, HU,

[euro6208]

Strongest May hurricane for the EPAC!!!