WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

09W RAMMASUN 140717 0000 16.4N 115.8E WPAC 85 959

Up to 85 knots!

[supercane]

Have you guys noticed that there are no longer Prognostic Reasoning on the JTWC bulletins? The remarks section have also been shortened with the wave height missing as well.

Hopefully this is just temporary.

Suspect this is because the folks at the Fleet Weather Center Norfolk, Virginia, (FWC-N) (KNGU) are producing the forecasts instead of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (PGTW) in Honolulu, based on the WMO header line. This (presumably temporary and for unknown reason) service transfer is obviously not occurring seamlessly. In addition to the lack of discussion and sea data in the warning, FWC-N used the wrong header (WTPN 31, instead of WTPN 32 that JTWC was using), which messes up automated services (see Weather Underground, for instance, which has the latest update for 16 Jul at 6Z, the last PGTW-issued warning). Compare this situation to when the HPC (now WPC) issues advisories for the NHC (no obvious change in service).

[cycloneye]

Getting organized.

[phwxenthusiast]

Have you guys noticed that there are no longer Prognostic Reasoning on the JTWC bulletins? The remarks section have also been shortened with the wave height missing as well.

Hopefully this is just temporary.

Suspect this is because the folks at the Fleet Weather Center Norfolk, Virginia, (FWC-N) (KNGU) are producing the forecasts instead of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (PGTW) in Honolulu, based on the WMO header line. This (presumably temporary and for unknown reason) service transfer is obviously not occurring seamlessly. In addition to the lack of discussion and sea data in the warning, FWC-N used the wrong header (WTPN 31, instead of WTPN 32 that JTWC was using), which messes up automated services (see Weather Underground, for instance, which has the latest update for 16 Jul at 6Z, the last PGTW-issued warning). Compare this situation to when the HPC (now WPC) issues advisories for the NHC (no obvious change in service).

Oh okay, thanks.

Well it's horrible: for one, as you said automated services such as email subscriptions aren't working properly. Also the warning bulletins themselves are confusing. The latest 00z warning says 75G105 whereas the best track says 85kt lol.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Rammasun is looking pretty good on satellite imagery and is strengthening...



Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/kVnYp5


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vrif]

0530Z, the eye wall is coming into view

[ManilaTC]

Hi Guys! Im back! hehe...

Damage all over the metro, we experienced the strongest winds from 7am-9am...
My WIFI internet canopy pole broke so I am without home internet access for a week.

Took a lot of videos. Will post em once I return.

[cycloneye]

Sad news coming out as 38 people have died.

A powerful storm that battered the central Philippines has killed 38 people and left millions without power.

Ten more people were injured by Typhoon Rammasun and another eight remain missing, according to authorities.

The typhoon swept through the country on Tuesday night before making a shift away from Manila on Wednesday.

More than 530,000 people took refuge in evacuation centres. Many of those who died were killed while outdoors by falling trees and flying debris

Source

[phwxenthusiast]

i won't be surprised if this becomes a Vicente and RI into a Cat 4 by tomorrow. The eye is getting better and the eyewall has become really established. Outflow looks excellent in all quadrants as well.

I'm still wondering when JTWC will resume the forecasts...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Pat they've resumed again with latest being 09z output - currently have it at 75kts which I expect them to increase somewhat at next warning. Looking very impressive.

Here's some footage I shot in Legaspi - http://youtu.be/2mtmvGAHsHE?list=UULKYsEXfI0PGXeKYL1KV7qA

The strongest wind hit after dark. I'm looking forward to chatting further with Michael Padua to see what obs his numerous AWS-es in the area recorded during Rammasun.

Rammasun really had the feel of a major typhoon - definitely up there in the top 3 or 4 I've been through in terms of wind intensity.

[ManilaTC]

Its another awesome example of that hot hot hot area near Albay-Sorsogon-Northern Samar, RI always in that area.

I know its undocumented, but that has been discussed among Filipino AM radio weather enthusiasts in the 90's (Lito Villarosa, Paeng Yabut, Ernie Baron) and was alluded to by the old PAGASA guns (Dr Roman Kintanar)

It shows my age hehe.

I do hope some scientist does a study and documents it.

[euro6208]

09W RAMMASUN 140717 1200 17.5N 114.3E WPAC 95 952

Back to near to Major typhoon status however it may be on the low side given how a clear well defined eye has continued to warm and clouds tops cooling. Intensity is just playing catchup with this rapidly intensifying typhoon.

I'd estimate 110 knots right now...

[CrazyC83]

Talk about bombing out! It looks stronger than it every did approaching the Philippines...

[euro6208]

WOW!

PGTW and KNES back up to 5.5! Almost as high as when it made landfall in the Philippines!


TPPN11 PGTW 171217

A. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN)

B. 17/1132Z

C. 17.5N

D. 114.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5 DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0644Z 16.9N 115.0E SSMI
17/0823Z 17.1N 114.8E MMHS
17/1028Z 17.2N 114.5E SSMS


SCHALIN


TXPQ28 KNES 170935
TCSWNP

A. 09W (RAMMASUN)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 17.2N

D. 114.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF
5.5. MET IS 5.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/0550Z 16.8N 115.1E AMSU
17/0644Z 16.9N 115.0E SSMI


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/620647/meralco-millions-still-in-the-dark-trying-best

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/620640/typhoon-glenda-leaves-20-dead

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-rammasun-glenda-philippines-manila-20140716

[dexterlabio]

I can say Rammasun is the worst typhoon to affect Metro Manila, Southern Luzon and Bicol region since 2006 (Xangxane). I remember Conson, Fengshen, and Mirinae affecting our area but the winds were not as intense as this recent one.

[supercane]

Explanation in the latest prognostic reasoning from JTWC for the recent service degradation:

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
GREATLY INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM AND AS
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS RECOVERED FROM A CONTINUITY OF
OPERATIONS EXERCISE WHICH USED THE JMA FORECAST THAT IS BASED ON
LOWER 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS.

[euro6208]

Mighty impressive typhoon...JTWC calling for a category 4 typhoon with 120 knots winds!

WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
TY RAMMASUN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS
BUILT IN WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND A DEFINED 16 NM
EYE HAS FORMED. A RECENT 171150Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
INCREASED STRENGTHENING AS BANDING HAS INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS
AND THE CONVECTION AROUND THE EYEWALL HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TY 09W IS
STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
GREATLY INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM AND AS
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS RECOVERED FROM A CONTINUITY OF
OPERATIONS EXERCISE WHICH USED THE JMA FORECAST THAT IS BASED ON
LOWER 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
HAINAN ISLAND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL
ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND, A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST, WHICH WILL
BECOME MORE RAPID AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN ACROSS THE
CHINESE/VIETNAMESE BORDER WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Trying to close off the deep red around a clear cut eye...

[euro6208]

4.1 980.2 67.4 3.6 3.6 3.6
6.8 921.9 134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
6.8 921.9 134.8 6.6 6.4 6.8
6.8 921.8 134.8 6.5 6.4 6.4

Talk about bombing out. From 4.1 and ADJ,INI,FNL below 4.0 explodes to a solid 6.8...135 knots...

Latest in blue still 6.8 while Raw INI slightly lower at 6.4...