ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[supercane4867]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

what site you get HWRF from?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[TheStormExpert]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

Too quick IMO.

[gatorcane]

what site you get HWRF from?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/

12Z ECMWF 144 hours:

[NDG]

12z Euro over the next 72 hrs is pretty much identical to yesterday's 12z run if anything a little stronger with 91L as it slowly moves near the central and northern FL coast before being picked up by a trough later next week.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro over the next 72 hrs is pretty much identical to yesterday's 12z run if anything a little stronger with 91L as it slowly moves near the central and northern FL coast before being picked up by a trough later next week.

So it's trended north again?

[NDG]

12z Euro over the next 72 hrs is pretty much identical to yesterday's 12z run if anything a little stronger with 91L as it slowly moves near the central and northern FL coast before being picked up by a trough later next week.

So it's trended north again?

Yes, a little.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, looking at the weatherbell premium output, has a weak low hitting Florida, then loses it, and then has something emerging off Hatteras at hour 138, then deepening as it moves out to sea.

Regardless of model intensity, which is usually inaccurate anyway, I think the real question is weather or not 91L hits Florida or not.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS, looking at the weatherbell premium output, has a weak low hitting Florida, then loses it, and then has something emerging off Hatteras at hour 138, then deepening as it moves out to sea.

Regardless of model intensity, which is usually inaccurate anyway, I think the real question is weather or not 91L hits Florida or not.

And where?

[Alyono]

EC has a full cane passing very near Hatteras

[floridasun78]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

what site you get HWRF from?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

ty

[jlauderdal]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

what site you get HWRF from?

has hwrf ever had a win?

[TheStormExpert]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

what site you get HWRF from?

has hwrf ever had a win?

Maybe in the E-Pac. where one of the two hurricane models is actually performing well this year.

[SFLcane]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

what site you get HWRF from?

has hwrf ever had a win?

well......lol in terms of track its possible as center relocation should be taken into account with a weak system. At worst some squally wx here in sfl which we deal with mon-fri this time of the yr.

[TheStormExpert]

Still feel the HWRF is out to lunch on that run.

[artist]

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim. ... na&lang=en

[vacanechaser]

Remember hwrf is run off the gfs.. Gfs has it hitting Florida and then out near or over hatteras.. So in regards of track, I would say that it is coming into agreement with something off hatteras. Of course much weaker than the euro. But may be showing that the euro may have been on to something. Now in terms of intensity, who knows... Interesting run of the euro though I must say.. Situation reminds me of Alex, 2004.




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane intercept research team.

[NDG]

Not sure if anybody else had brought up that we are getting a better concensus on the track from the models on the 18z early runs, if you take the HWFI & CMCI out of course.

[Alyono]

the thing that worries me about development is that the Canadian does not develop this

If even the Canadian does not develop something, that is a red flag

[CrazyC83]

Do I not get an Alex 2004 vibe from this?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thus far the track, and setup, predicted by the models does seem similar to Alex in 2004. Though of course this could easily change as time goes on once the storm actually is beyond the formative stage and the models overall get a better handle on it.

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