ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Frank2
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#61 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:21 pm

I noticed some easterly shear too, Gatorecane - since it's at 10N it's still stuck in the ITCZ, and just a guess that if remains an area of thunderstorms and doesn't develop soon it might remain that way as it approaches South America...

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#62 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:25 pm

Looks like 12z Euro is on board with developing 93L.
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#63 Postby hurricanekid416 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:25 pm

It looks like it's already starting to organize
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#64 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:32 pm

Below 10N at 18z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2014072818, , BEST, 0, 98N, 338W, 20, 1011, DB
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#65 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:35 pm

The SHIPS brings this to 94kt and the LGEM brings this to 85kt in 120 hours. Obviously bullish but illustrates that 93L will have a favorable environment to work with.
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#66 Postby weathernerdguy » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:39 pm

Did 2013 look this good in the region this invest is forming at?
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#67 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:40 pm

Yes, this is clearly a nice CV style system - and relatively early too considering the real ramping up of activity is typically more like mid-August. Way too early to say whether this is an early re-curver or something more significant for the U.S. But I would certainly keep an eye on it if I were in the islands.
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Re: Re:

#68 Postby beoumont » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:41 pm

NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake



That is what is probably going on. They are probably waiting for the Euro to jump in. You would think that they would have given higher chances just with the HWRF forecast which did very well with Arthur and TD 2.


Since when does an NHC forecaster look at various bits of guidance, then decide which bit he should jump on?

NEVER. EVER.

Guidance is simply guidance.
Last edited by beoumont on Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#69 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:42 pm

Pretty decent batch of convection moving off the coast of Africa behind 93 too. Will have to see if this means CV season will be more active than we've had recently...
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Re: Re:

#70 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:48 pm

beoumont wrote:
NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake



That is what is probably going on. They are probably waiting for the Euro to jump in. You would think that they would have given higher chances just with the HWRF forecast which did very well with Arthur and TD 2.


Since when does an NHC forecaster look at various bits of guidance, then decide which bit he should jump on?

NEVER. EVER.

Guidance is simply guidance.


All time my friend, IMO.
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Re: Re:

#71 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:54 pm

beoumont wrote:
NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake



That is what is probably going on. They are probably waiting for the Euro to jump in. You would think that they would have given higher chances just with the HWRF forecast which did very well with Arthur and TD 2.


Since when does an NHC forecaster look at various bits of guidance, then decide which bit he should jump on?

NEVER. EVER.

Guidance is simply guidance.


There is NOTHING constructive that can be said about the above post
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#72 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:55 pm

computer guidance is more than mere guidance

there is NO WAY a human brain can produce a solution that the models can do. If one thinks so, please try and solve millions of equations with many variables in about 60 minutes
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#73 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:59 pm

Just a quick comparison of 700mb RH values for 02L and 93L.

02L

Image

93L

Image
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Re: Re:

#74 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:00 pm

beoumont wrote:
NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake



That is what is probably going on. They are probably waiting for the Euro to jump in. You would think that they would have given higher chances just with the HWRF forecast which did very well with Arthur and TD 2.


Since when does an NHC forecaster look at various bits of guidance, then decide which bit he should jump on?

NEVER. EVER.

Guidance is simply guidance.


Debby, 2012
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#75 Postby Riptide » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:12 pm

From a distance, looks like something from 2010 or 2005.

Image
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Re:

#76 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:13 pm

Alyono wrote:I think NHCs chances are quite low. Development chances may be closer to 60/90 at this point.

I wonder if they are giving weight to the EC solution, which would be a mistake

I would assume their doing a blend of both the GFS and Euro.
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Re:

#77 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:21 pm

RL3AO wrote:Just a quick comparison of 700mb RH values for 02L and 93L.

02L

Image

93L

Image

Looks like a surge of moist air is following in 93L's path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#78 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:23 pm

Frank2 wrote:I noticed some easterly shear too, Gatorecane - since it's at 10N it's still stuck in the ITCZ, and just a guess that if remains an area of thunderstorms and doesn't develop soon it might remain that way as it approaches South America...

Frank2

Shear doesn't seem to be too big of an issue from my standpoint.
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#79 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:25 pm

Sun almost setting in the area.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#80 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:39 pm

Wow - 93L almost looks like a TD now.
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