ATL: GONZALO - Models

[gatorcane]

Recurve east of Bahamas on 18Z GFS

[sunnyday]

As always this far out, won't there likely be many changes in its strength/path?

[Riptide]

90L is fairly close to stalling inside the COL region of the departing cold front. This one bears watching more than any other this season.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank2]

I never said the season was over so don't sue me (lol) - amazing how we went from nothing at the start of the week to two systems and perhaps three by the weekend - must be the lunar eclipse...

[TheStormExpert]

Cristobal Deja Vu

That's what I was about ready to say, Cristobal 2.0 only stronger if the Euro's right! This time around to save me from anymore headaches I'm going with recurve out to sea, the time of year too really supports that.

[gatorcane]

Heads up Luis, HWRF is strong into eastern Puerto Rico:

[cycloneye]

Yeah no kidding.

[TheStormExpert]

Everyone knows by now that the HWRF intensifies these things too quickly and always seems to show a track that would affect landmasses. Lets just say it just got lucky with it's predictions for Arthur.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Recurve east of Bahamas on 18Z GFS

Oct...would expect nothing less. Will likely trend further and further east in the coming days..

Go Gators.

[Frank2]

Everyone knows by now that the HWRF intensifies these things too quickly and always seems to show a track that would affect landmasses. Lets just say it just got lucky with it's predictions for Arthur.

Not to mention the GFS - up to 48 hours ago some were comparing that program to a burned out light bulb : )

[TheStormExpert]

Recurve east of Bahamas on 18Z GFS

Oct...would expect nothing less. Will likely trend further and further east in the coming days..

Go Gators.

Just like with Cristobal, it kept trending East.

[sunnyday]

I hate the word 'recurve' because that's all we hear anymore. Can we call it something else? Someone suggested 'exit stage right' before.

[SeGaBob]

I hate the word 'recurve' because that's all we hear anymore. Can we call it something else? Someone suggested 'exit stage right' before.

Something I don't get about that is why they call it a recurve. Most systems curve away only once.

Back to 90L, it seems thunderstorm activity has decreased for the time being.

[Blown Away]

Geez, it's almost mid Oct and we have a westward moving system like its Sept 1st... Few have ever made this type of track... Looks like the islands could see something, who knows about the CONUS, crazy things happen in Oct...

[blp]

I was looking at the Euro Ensemble mean for the 500MB and I see more of a zonal pattern than the operational run. The ENE movement at 240hr still does not indicate an OTS scenario it could loop back if a ridge builds in so still early.

Operational run:



Ensemble:

[gatorcane]

I was looking at the Euro Ensemble mean for the 500MB and I see more of a zonal pattern than the operational run. The ENE movement at 240hr still does not indicate an OTS scenario it could loop back if a ridge builds in so still early.

Operational run:

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2woh9om.jpg

Ensemble:

http://oi61.tinypic.com/30nis7p.jpg

Not to mention that map is 240 hours from now. As one of our promets pointed out early, the pattern is extremely complex in the medium to long-range especially when looking how Super Typhoon Vongfong will impact things downstream. Beyond about 4-5 days with the models is highly uncertain.

[TheStormExpert]

So far out through 72hrs. the 00z GFS shows nothing, could this be a trend? Guess we will find out when the Euro comes out.

[Hurricaneman]

So far out through 72hrs. the 00z GFS shows nothing, could this be a trend? Guess we will find out when the Euro comes out.

even at 90hrs theres a whole lot of nothing but this could be a late bloomer and typically with shallower systems they tend to go more west and another reason for not developing much at 90hrs is Hispaniola which could be huge in terms of track and intensity in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

starts developing around 108 hour north of Hispañiola

[TheStormExpert]

So far out through 72hrs. the 00z GFS shows nothing, could this be a trend? Guess we will find out when the Euro comes out.

even at 90hrs theres a whole lot of nothing but this could be a late bloomer and typically with shallower systems they tend to go more west and another reason for not developing much at 90hrs is Hispaniola which could be huge in terms of track and intensity in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Also it is the GFS which has been plain nuts this season. Who knows though, tonight's Euro should tell us more.