ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[NDG]

the thing that worries me about development is that the Canadian does not develop this

If even the Canadian does not develop something, that is a red flag

True, but the Canadian for the last couple of days has been relentless of turning it out to sea into the higher shear instead of turning it westward.

[NDG]

0z early model run, much better concensus.
Regarding intensity the Euro is getting some company.

[NDG]

0z HWFI goes nuts strengthwise, turns 91L into a hurricane by Wednesday morning off the coast of FL then make landfall in SC/NC border Friday morning.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the models are now coming in line of stalling out the cyclone off the FL East Coast and pulling north /northeast with an impact to the NC coast.

[TheStormExpert]

Just looked up Hurricane Alex(2004) on Wikipedia to get a sense of it's Meteorological history and overall it looks very similar to what the models are showing MAY happen with 91L. It struggled at first until the approaching trough that turned it NE bought better conditions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alex_(2004)

[Alyono]

0Z GFS does seem to be developing this, but not until Thu/Fri

[Alyono]

Alex was in August. This is June/early July

A better analog may be Cristobal from 2008

[TheStormExpert]

Alex was in August. This is June/early July

A better analog may be Cristobal from 2008

I meant track wise and it's evolution, strength wise it shouldn't even come close!

[Alyono]

Cristobal moved to the NE. That likely is the analog, NOT Alex

0Z Canadian now does develop this once it starts moving to the NE.

[Alyono]

0Z EC has a fairly intense hurricane skirting east NC, similar to Alex

[supercane4867]

00z ECMWF brings wind gust well over 100mph for the Outer Banks

[NDG]

06z GFS starting to come along with the Euro, it does not do much with it over the next 60 hrs or so because it has it if not making landfall very close to the eastern FL coast as it starts heading north.

[ronjon]

Yeah NDG, the 06z GFS brings the low as far west as Lake O and then drifts it north up the spine of the peninsula the next two days before emerging off the Georgia coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014063006/gfs_mslp_uv850_atltropics.html

[NDG]

06z HWFI shifted west, making landfall near Port St Lucie as a weak low then move along the coast gaining strength as it does so.

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 28.8N 77.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.06.2014 28.1N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.07.2014 27.0N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.07.2014 27.0N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.07.2014 27.7N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.07.2014 29.1N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.07.2014 30.2N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.07.2014 31.8N 79.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.07.2014 33.6N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.07.2014 35.8N 75.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.07.2014 38.4N 71.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 05.07.2014 40.8N 67.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 06.07.2014 43.6N 63.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not until Recon gets out there this morning will we know what and where it could go. Most likely future Arthur will go north at some point but without a true center llc then what's the point.

[tolakram]

So the 12Z euro still blows this up right off the coast while the GFS now shows it but still has it moving inland a few times, which is why it keeps the storm weaker IMO. Remind me, which model has the left bias?

[srainhoutx]

So the 12Z euro still blows this up right off the coast while the GFS now shows it but still has it moving inland a few times, which is why it keeps the storm weaker IMO. Remind me, which model has the left bias?

The Euro...

[tolakram]

Interesting.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

UK and Euro now have a very similar idea for a west loop back to the NE and developing fairly rapidly. If you compare all the day 3 (D3) plots for all the models they are now in pretty good agreement. Looking at V85 (vorticity 850MB) gives a good idea which models expect this to hit the coast and which ones keep it off shore.

[NDG]

Very concensus from 12z early model runs. All now agreeing in it becoming a tropical storm, even the GFS.