ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Down to 20%

1. An elongated area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms
near and southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are becoming less conducive for development of this
system while it moves generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Loop of 90L.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014


AN E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N23W TO 9N24W MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 13N24W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VERY MOIST AREA SURROUNDING THIS WAVE FROM 5N-21N BETWEEN 18W
AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 23W
AND 27W.

[Hammy]

Development chances lowered further, and as far as I'm concerned it's pretty much over at this point as it heads into stable air.

[cycloneye]

Global Hawk almost in the wave area.Follow it at the tracker.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

[jlauderdal]

Global Hawk almost in the wave area.Follow it at the tracker.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

long way to fly for a swirl...hope they learn something new

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through sonde 9 (19:40Z) of 60 planned.

[cycloneye]

ATCF keeps 90L alive as they made the 18z Best Track update. (Released late)

AL, 90, 2014090518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 255W, 20, 1009, DB

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through sonde 20. NASA track in first image through a few minutes ago.





----

Through sonde 22. There are a lot of interesting features for that NASA tracker, including the ability to add your own overlays.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Significant development of
this system is unlikely due to an unfavorable dry airmass over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014090600, , BEST, 0, 135N, 267W, 20, 1010, DB

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N24W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N25W TO 9N25W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY AND SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED THE
SYSTEM...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 25W-29W

[Gustywind]

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Significant development of
this system is unlikely due to an unfavorable dry airmass over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Again no surprise there, dry air is killing most of these systems, could be surely a big factor of this 2014 cane season.

[bahamaswx]

Flared up pretty good overnight.

[cycloneye]

That is right baha. Is very much alive.See the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Overview of mission (9Z satellite):


Satellite imagery at 2:15Z and sonde times around that time:


And then overview with 9Z satellite imagery after the Global Hawk was already back across the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

The 850 mb vorticity has improved a little bit.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has increased
and become a little better organized this morning. However,
significant development of this system is not expected due to a
unfavorable dry air mass that prevails over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[NDG]

I guess I will sit back and watch, I will not be surprised if it survives but also if it does not survive the track across the Atlantic, lol.
If it survives it may be something to keep eye on just north of the Antilles.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014090612, , BEST, 0, 144N, 295W, 25, 1009, DB