BOB: VIYARU - Cyclonic Storm

[supercane4867]

5.5N 87.9E

[supercane4867]

It shares vorticity with 91B but is not the same invest

[supercane4867]

[img][/img]

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING HAS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF
THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another little video I put together on this area. Northern Hemisphere season is underway!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFExqPylKq4[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

For a second time is upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 93.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091720Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND A STRONGER
GRADIENT FLOW (30 TO 35 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
CIRCULATION IS ALSO IDENTIFIED IN THE ANIMATED DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INCREASING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

Is organizing fast.

[cycloneye]

TCFA Issued


WTIO21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110200Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/osca ... Bas221.png

latest scatterometer pass does not yet show a closed circulation. However, there are some strong winds associated with the storms in the area.

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151Z MAY 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 4.8N 93.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.8N 93.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 6.2N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 7.1N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 8.3N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 9.7N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.8N 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0N 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.1N 93.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 100715Z AMSU-B IMAGE,
WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN TIP OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER,
A 100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE OCEANSAT IMAGE
SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE LLCC IS
LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO
MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN
BAY OF BENGAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO
DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100151Z MAY 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 100200).//

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking very good based off this 85 GHz pass:



Nice banding, hints of a mid-level eye feature forming.

A later pass also shows this:

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 5.5N 92.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5N 92.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 6.8N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 8.1N 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.6N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.3N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.2N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.3N 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.6N 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 5.8N 92.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 101130Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. DESPITE THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, A
100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 10/12Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM NORTH
OF THE CENTER, INDICATES SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 29 KNOTS WITH
SLP NEAR 1002 MB, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A POINT SOURCE, WHICH IS PRODUCING NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC
01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER PAKISTAN AND THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM
WILL RE-CURVE INTO MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF,
WHICH INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET ECMWF
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

BOB 01 is currently a deep depression, and IMD estimates it will be a very severe cyclonic storm in 3 days.

[Alyono]

this may eventually prove to be a significant Bangladesh threat. GFS has shifted west toward Bangladesh, Canadian though is unrealistic favoring India

[Meow]

this may eventually prove to be a significant Bangladesh threat. GFS has shifted west toward Bangladesh, Canadian though is unrealistic favoring India

Well, both IMD and JTWC have high confidence that it will move towards Myanmar as a strong system.

[Alyono]

this may eventually prove to be a significant Bangladesh threat. GFS has shifted west toward Bangladesh, Canadian though is unrealistic favoring India

Well, both IMD and JTWC have high confidence that it will move towards Myanmar as a strong system.

models are shifting west though. Confidence is not as high as they are saying. EC ensemble is all over the place with tracks from Sri Lanka to the Irawaddy Delta. The majority are toward northern Myanmar. Of course, the EC still is not really developing this cyclone so not sure how valid that is. GFS is near the border and CMC is more of an Indian threat

[cycloneye]

Forecast for landfall is now more west.

WTIO31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 6.1N 91.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1N 91.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 7.4N 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 8.6N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.1N 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.7N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.5N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.3N 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.2N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 91.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM SOUTHWARD
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A 101523Z AMSU-B IMAGE. DESPITE THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, BASED ON THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE POINT
SOURCE ALOFT MAY HAVE DISSOLVED FOR THE TIME BEING BUT EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OVER THE LLCC NONE THE LESS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES FROM CIMSS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS BUT THE OUTFLOW
SEEMS TO BE OFFSETTING THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF
BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE MYANMAR/BANGLADESH BOARDER AS
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF
BENGAL. TC 01B IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE
ENTIRETY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THEREFORE, BETA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO SUSTAIN THE NOSE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS EFFECT SHOULD CAUSE
THE TC TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL
BEFORE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING. THIS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN FORECAST
TRACK HAS CAUSED THE LANDFALL POSITION TO SHIFT CLOSER TO
BANGLADESH. TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96
DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPED INTO THE WESTERLIES. BY TAU
120 THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TC. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z.//

[euro6208]

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 7.0N 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 8.1N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.5N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.6N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.2N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.6N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.1N 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.7N 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 90.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM SOUTHWARD
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM SPOT OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO
GROW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE DEVELOPING WARM SPOT NOTICED IN IR AND A TIGHTLY CURVED NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 110011Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30-35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE 101810Z OSCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED MULTIPLE 40-KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY HAVE DISSOLVED FOR THE TIME
BEING BUT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OVER THE LLCC. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES FROM CIMSS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS BUT THE
ROBUST OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR. TC 01B IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B
IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
NORTHERN INDIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE MYANMAR/BANGLADESH BORDER AS
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF
BENGAL. TC 01B IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE
ENTIRETY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THEREFORE, BETA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO SUSTAIN THE NOSE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS EFFECT SHOULD CAUSE
THE TC TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL
BEFORE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING. TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPED INTO THE
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MADE LANDFALL AS A
SIGNIFICANT TC AND BEGUN TO SPIN-DOWN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE
TO CONVERGE ON THIS SOLUTION. THE ONLY CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF TRACKER. HOWEVER, IT IS NOW INLINE WITH
THE RE-CURVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH AND MAY COME FURTHER INLINE WITH
TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Almost named Mahasen, just made a new video on this.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tZOau9SWes[/youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tZOau9SWes