SIO: BEJISA - Tropical Cyclone (04R/06S)

[supercane4867]

Northeast of Madagascar

[mrbagyo]

SouthWest Indian Ocean is heating up.
this should be next storm of the basin - and it will be named Cyclone Bejisa
I think this will peak at high cat2 to mid cat3( 175-195 kph).
GFS forecast a slow movement, well, I hope this just stay at sea.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/WINDIANOCEAN/index.htm

[mrbagyo]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 51.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 729 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING,
AREA OF TURNING WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 20
KNOTS WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
BETWEEN A STRONG VWS GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH WHICH IS
PROBABLY HAMPERING FURTHER CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

TXXS27 KNES 280553
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99S)

B. 28/0530Z

C. 8.8S

D. 52.1E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...TREND OF 99S HAS BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IS ON THE HIGH
TREND OF DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO TRADITIONAL DVORAK RULES. CDO FEATURE
IS 1.05 DEGREES WIDE FOR CF OF 2.5 WITH NO BF ADDED. SHEAR METHOD ALSO
YIELDS 2.5 AS DEFINED LLC IS .53 DEGREES FROM DEEP CONVECTION. DT IS
CONFIRMED AT 2.5. THOUGH PERSISTENT WITH DT OVER 2.0 IN THE LAST 6HRS THE
DT IS REJECTED IN FAVOR OF LOWER NUMBERS AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS CYCLING
AS THERE MAY BE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE ON NE SIDE HAVING ERODED AND PRODUCED OUTFLOW OR ROLL
CLOUD. STILL MET IS AT 1.5 FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND FROM 24HRS AGO
AND PT IS 1.5. AS SUCH FT IS 1.5 BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/2352Z 8.5S 52.8E AMSU
28/0138Z 8.8S 52.6E SSMIS
28/0240Z 8.7S 52.3E SSMIS


...GALLINA

[jaguarjace]

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[euro6208]

WTXS22 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5S 51.7E TO 16.1S 52.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 52.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
51.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 52.2E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 282329Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF
30 KNOT WIND BARBS. AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE REMAINED STRONG.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300300Z.
//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WTIO22 FMEE 290618
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2013
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/12/2013 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 52.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND LOCALLY WITHIN PERIPHERAL BANDS EXISTING
BETWEEN 100 NM AND 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CERCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/12/29 AT 18 UTC:
11.3 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/12/30 AT 06 UTC:
12.0 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES (1013 HPA) AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.=

[senorpepr]

WTIO22 FMEE 291223
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2013
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 29/12/2013 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 52.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND LOCALLY WITHIN PERIPHERAL BANDS EXISTING
BETWEEN 100 NM AND 250 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CERCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
11.3 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
12.1 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES (1013 HPA) AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.=

[mrbagyo]

Sandwiched by two ridge

from RSMC La Reunion
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN A FIRST TIME TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH-EAST, AND A QUITE WEAK FIELD IN THE SOUTH.
MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A FASTER
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY-TRACK.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOW A MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IT REMAINS SOME
STRONG FLUCTUATIONS ON THE TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE MEAN OF ALL LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES AND THE MEAN OF THE LATEST
2 RUNS OF ECMWF.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOMORROW AND SHOULD TAKE BENEFIT UNTIL THURSDAY FROM GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE (2 OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE
SOUTH) AND LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS.
INHABITANTS OF THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR IN A FIRST TIME
THEN PEOPLE FROM REUNION'S AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS AT MEDIUM RANGE ARE
INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN

from JTWC
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 290227Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH -
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE FUELED THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO
THE EAST WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE
THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN
ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STEERING
FLOW AS REFLECTED IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.

[euro6208]

06S SIX 131229 1200 10.4S 52.7E SHEM 35 996

BT has winds and pressure steady...

[euro6208]

WTXS32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 10.4S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 10.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.0S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.1S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.1S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.4S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, FORMATIVE
BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 291739Z METOP-B IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATING A 35 TO 40 KNOT CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE
TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS HAVE FUELED THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR),
THEREFORE, TC 06S MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TC BEJISA HAS OVERALL INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STEERING FLOW AS REFLECTED
IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

UPDATE:

06S BEJISA 131230 0000 10.6S 52.7E SHEM 45 989

Up to 45 knots!

[mrbagyo]

an eye has formed

TXXS27 KNES 300541
TCSSIO

A. 06S (BEJISA)

B. 30/0530Z

C. 11.2S

D. 52.9E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...BEJISA IS A TREMENDOUSLY COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL
CDO WITH A DIMPLE FORMING WHERE THE NASCENT EYE IS WITHIN MI SUITE OF
IMAGERY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES 1.4 BANDING ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 4.5
THOUGH THIS WOULD EXCEED DEVELOPMENT RULES AND SO IS REJECTED ATTM.
MET IS 3.5 BASED ON RAPID TREND BUT APPEARS TO WEAK AND IS REJECTED
AS WELL. PT IS 4.0 AS 4.5 IS UNATTAINABLE DUE TO RULE OF BEING WITHIN
.5 OF THE MET. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/0100Z 10.8S 53.0E TMI
30/0113Z 10.8S 53.0E SSMIS
30/0214Z 11.0S 53.0E SSMIS


...GALLINA
______________________
Discussion from RSMC La Reunion

ZCZC 112
WTIO30 FMEE 300642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 52.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/30 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/31 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/31 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/01/01 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/01/01 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/02 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/03 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/01/04 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
THE SATELLITE INFRA-ROUGE IMAGERY SHOW TOPS OF CLOUDS THAT HAVE A LITTLE WARMED FOR THE LAST 6 HOU
RS, BUT ON THE LATEST 0214Z F17 AND 0422Z F18 MW PICTURES, WE CAN DEPICT A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CON
VECTION WRAPPING ON A 1.0 TO 1.1 LAP (EVEN IF IT IS NOT TOTALLY CONSOLIDATED). THE CURRENT ASSESSM
ENT OF THE INTENSITY IS WITHIN THE AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES (KNES AT 4.0 AND PGTW AT 3.5).
ADT IS AT 3.7 SINCE 00Z. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAINS HIGH (1012 HPA). SO THE MSLP ESTIMATE IS
HIGHER THAN USUAL.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BULDING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWAR
DS THE SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST AT A FASTER PACE UP TO THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY, BEJISA WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CLOSE TO A FAST NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS PATTERN S
HOULD ALLOW A SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVE. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RID
GE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMITED THIS SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVE. NVG AND ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT WITH THE 12Z AND 18Z OUTPUTS. THE 18Z GFS OUTPUTS SHOW AGAIN A M
ORE PRONOUNCED SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN THAT BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO MAURITIUS FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST AVAILABLE NVG AND ECMWF CONSENSUS AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 2
LATEST RUNS OF ECMWF (12Z AND 18Z). SO, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK IS STILL RATHER IMPORTANT
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: LOW SHEAR, SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY, WARM WATERS WITH
FAVOURABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN (AND EVEN VERY FAVOURABLE OHC UP TO WEDNESDAY), STRONG IMPROVEMEN
T OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FAVOURABLY INTERACT W
ITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. SO A RAPID INTENSIFI
CATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IN
CREASE. NOW THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS INCREASE IS DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE, BUT THE TENDENCY INDICATES TH
AT THE SHEAR COULD BE REASONABLY FAIR FIRSTLY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FRIDAY. AS THE IMPACT
OF THIS SHEAR IS DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY, AN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT WIL
L APPROACH REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS REMAINS.
INHABITANTS OF THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR IN A FIRST TIME THEN PEOPLE FROM REUNION AND M
AURITIUS ISLANDS AT MEDIUM RANGE ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

[DanieleItalyRm]

midget cyclone Now..
dimension of the center disc about 60 Km
eye 5 km in diameter.

Loop:
http://www.sat24.com/en/mg

[hurricanes1234]

What?! Up to 75 knots!!!

06S BEJISA 131230 1200 11.9S 53.0E SHEM 75 967

[mrbagyo]

small eye + small CDO + excellent outflow
TXXS27 KNES 301149
TCSSIO

A. 06S (BEJISA)

B. 30/1130Z

C. 11.8S

D. 52.9E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...VERY SMALL (5KM) WIDE EYE IS VERY CLEAR/SYMMETRIC WITHIN
VERY SMALL CDO WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WELL DEVELOPED OUTER BANDS. EYE
ONLY MEASURES DG LIKELY DUE TO EYE BEING LESS THAN FIELD OF VIEW...AND
EMBEDDED IN LG (ALSO DUE TO SMALL CDO) FOR EYE NO OF 5.0. BLACK RING
SURROUNDS FOR 0 EYE ADJ MAKING DT 5.0. MET IS 4.0 USING RAPID TREND
AND PT IS LIMITED TO 4.5 PER RULE OF NOT BEING GREATER THAN .5 OVER
MET. FT IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION BREAKING DEVELOPMENT RULE
OF 1.5/12HRS. HOWEVER...6HR AVG HAS BEEN 4.75 AND RECENT 3HR AVG IS 4.8
AND GIVEN THE SMALL NATURE OF THE CYCLONE FAVORED ON AGGRESSIVE SIDE TO
MAKE SYSTEM T5.0/5.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

[hurricanes1234]

This might be the start of rapid deepening. This SHEM season has been very active thus far, in my opinion.

[mrbagyo]

ZCZC 229
WTIO30 FMEE 301302
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20132014
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 52.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/31 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/31 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2014/01/01 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/01/01 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/01/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/02 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/03 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/01/04 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5
BEJISA HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A PINHOLE EYE. THE CURR
ENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY IS THE LOWER OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES (KNES AT 5.5 AND PGTW AT 4.5)
. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH (1012 HPA) AND THE SYSTEM HAS A SMALL SIZE. SO THE MSLP ESTI
MATE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST UP TO THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY, BEJISA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CLOSE TO A FAST NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A SOUT
H-EASTWARD RECURVE. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EA
ST OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THIS SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVE. NVG AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS POINT WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z OUTPUTS. THE 00Z GFS OUTPUTS IS MORE EAST THAT THE OTHERS MODEL
S, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER THAT PREVIOUSLY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST AVA
ILABLE NVG AND ECMWF CONSENSUS AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE ECMWF RUNS OF 12Z AND 00Z. NOW,
A TRANSIT BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MAURICE FRIDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: LOW SHEAR, SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY, WARM WATERS WITH
FAVOURABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN (AND EVEN VERY FAVOURABLE OHC UP TO WEDNESDAY), STRONG IMPROVEMEN
T OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FAVOURABLY INTERACT W
ITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. SO THE CURRENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 36/48 HOURS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF BEJISA IS E
XPECTED UP TO THE APPROACH OF REUNION AND MAURICE. HOWEVER, AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INT
ENSITY OF THE SYSTEM EXISTS AS IT WILL BE CLOSE TO REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS.
INHABITANTS OF THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR IN A FIRST TIME THEN PEOPLE FROM REUNION AND M
AURITIUS ISLANDS AT MEDIUM RANGE ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

[euro6208]

What?! Up to 75 knots!!!

06S BEJISA 131230 1200 11.9S 53.0E SHEM 75 967

even 75 knots seems way low given the very small midget like appearance of the storm with a PINHOLE eye.

Compared with past storms of similarity, I think this is a category 3...





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

What?! Up to 75 knots!!!

06S BEJISA 131230 1200 11.9S 53.0E SHEM 75 967

even 75 knots seems way low given the very small midget like appearance of the storm with a PINHOLE eye.

Compared with past storms of similarity, I think this is a category 3...





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

You're right, I'd personally guess around 85-100 knots for the 18z Best Track. The cyclone is a very small cyclone that is in a conducive environment for quick intensification.

Here are the ADT estimates, they don't do too well with small cyclones and pinhole eyes.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.6

[hurricanes1234]

Now a SSHS Category 2! From 85 mph this morning to 105 mph (90 knots) now. Surely is rapidly intensifying!

06S BEJISA 131230 1800 12.3S 52.8E SHEM 90 956

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 105 knots!!! One SSHS Category every 6 hours. This happened with Amara not too long ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see SSHS Category 4 by 6z.

06S BEJISA 131231 0000 12.7S 53.0E SHEM 105 944



Eye continues to clear out after having become clouded earlier today (maybe it underwent a brief eyewall replacement cycle not long-lived enough to weaken it).