SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
The very small island nation of Tonga (population 103,000+ 2011 census) is located in the eastern quadrant near the eye shown in the last post before this. Conditions there must be very dangerous. God bless them!
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hurricanes1234
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Oh my gosh!!! Category 4 on SSHS! 
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TheAustinMan
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Re: SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
It seems that in the past few hours Ian's eye has greatly expanded and cleared, and although standard infrared imagery may have indicated the slight warming of cloud tops, microwave imagery certainly suggests a more coalesced structure with a strengthening eyewall to the northeast.
1 km-resolution visible image, courtesy CIMSS.
1 km-resolution visible image, courtesy CIMSS.
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hurricanes1234
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The eyewall is certainly getting stronger. I'd estimate 125-130 knots for 0z before it starts going downhill from there. Is this one of the strongest here in the 21st century? Sorry if it's a silly question.
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hurricanes1234
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Cloud tops are cooling again around the eye in a ring! This is just amazing. May God be with any inhabitants of those little islands. Also, ADT estimates are increasing steadily now.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.4mb/ 104.6kt
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.4mb/ 104.6kt
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Re: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
hurricanes1234 wrote:Cloud tops are cooling again around the eye in a ring! This is just amazing. May God be with any inhabitants of those little islands. Also, ADT estimates are increasing steadily now.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.4mb/ 104.6kt
You can clearly see the eye passing over a small island or atoll .
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... mm=0&hur=0
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hurricanes1234
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It has weakened?!
07P IAN 140111 0000 19.5S 174.4W SHEM 115 937
07P IAN 140111 0000 19.5S 174.4W SHEM 115 937
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hurricanes1234
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I personally think it has intensified. Cloud tops have cooled markedly around the eye in the last few hours. The eye is still clearing out. ADT estimates are still rising. I wonder what caused them to go with 115 knots?
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 948.2mb/107.2kt
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Personal Opinion Disclaimer for all viewers: I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, SO PLEASE DO NOT USE THE PRECEDING AS AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. IT IS SOLELY MY PERSONAL OPINION, WHICH HAS A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF BEING INACCURATE OR INCORRECT.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 948.2mb/107.2kt
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Personal Opinion Disclaimer for all viewers: I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, SO PLEASE DO NOT USE THE PRECEDING AS AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. IT IS SOLELY MY PERSONAL OPINION, WHICH HAS A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF BEING INACCURATE OR INCORRECT.
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Re: SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
hurricanes1234 wrote:It has weakened?!
07P IAN 140111 0000 19.5S 174.4W SHEM 115 937
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 948.2mb/107.2kt
Dvorak constraints with the land interaction that will do it
But as you say i agree it looks to be getting stronger on the satpic. there's more mauve now in the image.
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mrbagyo
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Re: SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
(CIMSS)
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hurricanes1234
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Re:
stormkite wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JAN 2014 Time : 013200 UTC
Lat : 19:48:24 S Lon : 174:03:52 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 943.7mb/112.4kt
Confirmation T number is still rising.
It makes sense in my opinion because cloudtops are still cooling somewhat and surrounding the eye more. I'd personally estimate 125-130 knots now.
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jaguarjace
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Re: SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
RGB Close-up from GOES-West at 0000 UTC Jan 11.
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2014JAN11 022200 6.4 933.1 124.6 6.4 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF
Most now agreeing in T6 +
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/IAN.html
Maybe a match for Zoe in the next 24 hours 155 knots T7.5 2002/3
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Most now agreeing in T6 +
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/IAN.html
Maybe a match for Zoe in the next 24 hours 155 knots T7.5 2002/3
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by stormkite on Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hurricanes1234
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I'd think based on all of this, there would be at least some increase in winds by 6z. The ring of cold cloudtops is even thicker now, and estimates are still on the rise.
Amateur opinion only.
Amateur opinion only.
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dexterlabio
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It should be close to 135-140kts by now, IMO. It looks really good.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: SPAC: IAN - Tropical Cyclone
Mighty Impressive...
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TXPS26 KNES 110535
TCSWSP
A. 07P (IAN)
B. 11/0522Z
C. 20.4S
D. 174.0W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B WHICH RESULTS IN AN ENO OF
5.5. EADJ OF 1.0 BASED ON WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W. DT IS 6.5. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
Colin is now rapidly intensifying atm
TCSWSP
A. 07P (IAN)
B. 11/0522Z
C. 20.4S
D. 174.0W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B WHICH RESULTS IN AN ENO OF
5.5. EADJ OF 1.0 BASED ON WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W. DT IS 6.5. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
Colin is now rapidly intensifying atm
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