WPAC: INVEST 90W

[jaguarjace]

3.0N 151.0E

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Finally, an invest! Looks good for a start and JMA may designate this as a TD this week.

[stormkite]

A Tropical Disturbance is spinning up far south of Chuuk island and has a 15% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression.
Sea surface temperatures below the disturbance is warm, at 30°C, which will increase its chance of development.







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[dexterlabio]

According to GFS, it will be a TC 48 hours from now. Let's see how far it will go.

[mrbagyo]

this is the system that's causing buzz and alarm in the Eastern Visayas the past few days because of some irresponsible netizen spreading wrong info in the internet. heck, our friend in Leyte even called us if there's really a typhoon coming that's as strong as Haiyan.. WTF.

I don't like GFS' forecast.

[cycloneye]

90W INVEST 140106 1200 3.0N 150.8E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Looking promising to become our first TC of the year...

[hurricanes1234]

It looks to have lost a good bit of convection, maybe from diurnal minimum?

[stormkite]

Tropical Disturbance 90w is spinning up at
4°N 151°E, and has a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression.
Sea surface temperatures below the disturbance is warm, at 30°C, which will increase its chance of further intensification

http://typhoonstormwatch2012.blogspot.com.au/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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New post on Westernpacificweather.com
Its Monday January 6th and this week is going to be interesting for the tropics of the western pacific as we continue to monitor Invest 90W, a tropical wave south of Guam that poses the risk of bringing foul weather to the Philippines during the coming weekend.



As of writing this update this area remains an elongated trough of low pressure with little organization. Yet convection remains robust in its core and with atmospheric conditions supportive of possibly weak tropical development the chance of this now weak low becoming a named storm is at least moderate to possibly high at this time.



GFS is just one of the many global weather models we look at, only this one has been fairly accurate this past season in predicting the formation of storms. Shown in the image below a Tropical Storm is being picked up by Saturday Noon Time. Note how far north the wind field extend. The problem with this is that gale force winds could be seen in Northern Luzon bringing rough waves up and down coastline. This along with persistent showers possibly in Visayas could pose the risk of low lying flash flooding and a chance of landslides this coming weekend. Now is the time if you have friends in weak shelters in the area or are in flood prone areas to make sure you are ready for heavy rainfall.



GFS 5 day Outlook

A SUPER TYPHOON WILL NOT OCCUR and never was expected nor have ever occurred in the month of January. But heavy rain showers that could cause flooding by the weekend is developing. The areas highest at risk will be eastern Sea Boards of Southern Luzon, Visayas (including Haiyan hit areas) and Northern Mindanao. Yet showers will extend farther inland.



Beyond that details are going to be limited as our storm is still in its genesis phase and predicting where exactly and when exactly something might occur without even having a low pressure system developed is quite hard. Thanks to modern technology and modern improvements with numerical model forecasting are we able to look ahead and see this risk well in advance.

The down side though is the farther we look the more inaccurate a numerical model forecast becomes. Furthermore some of the general public who has little to no meteorological knowledge and who has access to global models and when they see a strong storm developing nearly two weeks out in the forecast a few may tend to share that observation with people inciting panic and predicting a Super Typhoon when in reality no STY has ever occurred in January and no models were suggesting one to happen. (This is what happened last week with the Super Typhoon Confusion) Always remember if someone chooses to remain anonymous without providing details about their Meteorological expertise then the chances are they have none.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140107 0600 3.2N 149.1E WPAC 15 1010

[dexterlabio]

I think what the models were hinting to form is not 90W. This will likely get renumbered, unless it recovers...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think what the models were hinting to form is not 90W. This will likely get renumbered, unless it recovers...

Actually the models predicted it to weaken before entering the Philippine Sea then strengthen then make landfall as a TS-STS then intensify into a typhoon as it crosses the country. It will intensify further after making landfall near Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Another burst of convection. Might end up like Wukong last 2012.

[euro6208]

Wacky 06Z run showing a weak Tropical Storm making landfall over the two southern islands while recurving out to the Philippine Sea heads south and repeating the process a 2nd time!

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140107 1200 3.9N 148.5E WPAC 15 1010

Updated BT shows pressure and winds steady and a relocation of the LLC to the Northwest...






Very weak system. More work needs to be done.

[dexterlabio]

The latest GFS run shows something that is more non-tropical, especially by the time it recurves. People in the Philippines must brace for some rainy and chilly weather this weekend.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The latest GFS run shows something that is more non-tropical, especially by the time it recurves. People in the Philippines must brace for some rainy and chilly weather this weekend.

It actually is tropical before recurving.

[dexterlabio]

^Well, barely tropical. And it's all in a single model run. Weak tropical systems are no match to dry and cold monsoon surge, and the only way they get more intense is when they lose tropical characteristics (as an extratrop). If the model scenario verifies, there's gonna be a lot of rain across PI...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Well, barely tropical. And it's all in a single model run. Weak tropical systems are no match to dry and cold monsoon surge, and the only way they get more intense is when they lose tropical characteristics (as an extratrop). If the model scenario verifies, there's gonna be a lot of rain across PI...

Shear is higher over Luzon [high] than Mindanao [low-moderate] and the cold surge here is not as bad as we are getting lots of rain - more than 70mm in the first 2 weeks of January - nearly the monthly average of 78mm. If the Amihan would be strong enough here, we would not have this. If we also were affected by the Amihanactually, what you said may be true, but we are affected by a low-pressure area.

Northeast Monsoon or the Amihan usually stops rainfall and makes it chilly.
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BACK TO THE STORM
Right now, it is starting to get that outflow and it is organizing. Conditions over Mindanao are quite favorable Landfall date is still on the 11/12th. I am thinking of a moderate TS from this. Intensifying as an extratropical over Panay-Palawan-Mindoro.


This is only my opinion, so I respect yours too.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Article by AccuWeather

The Western Pacific has been relatively tranquil for the past month with no active tropical cyclones.

An area of showers and thunderstorms south of Guam, will have an opportunity to become better organized this week as it drifts westward toward the Philippines.

Warm ocean water temperatures combined with relatively low amounts of wind shear will provide a favorable environment for potential tropical development this week.

Development is expected to be slow, but by the second half of the week the first named tropical cyclone of the season could have its sight set on the Philippines.

This potential tropical cyclone would likely take a track to the west-northwest, which would lead to a landfall in the Philippines as early as this weekend.

The area that could suffer the worst impacts is southern and central Philippines, including some of the areas still recovering from former Super Typhoon Haiyan.

The greatest threat at this time appears to be for flooding rainfall, although some damaging winds will be possible if the cyclone were to development faster and have more time to strengthen.

A front north of the Philippines could act to pull the moisture from this potential storm northward, which would lead to potential flooding across much of the Philippines.

Quite disturbing for survivors, at least this is a fraction of Haiyan's fury.

Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.