Meow wrote:It seems that 91W and JMA’s new TD are different systems right now.
No, it's the same system. It appears that they just were not very careful with its position. Japan calls all low pressure areas "TD".
WPAC: LINGLING - Tropical Depression 01W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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Re:
No, it's the same system. It appears that they just were not very careful with its position. Japan calls all low pressure areas "TD".
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-
Meow
Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:Meow wrote:It seems that 91W and JMA’s new TD are different systems right now.
No, it's the same system. It appears that they just were not very careful with its position. Japan calls all low pressure areas "TD".
If you see carefully, you will find that there are two significant vortices on the 850mb vorticity imagery. The west one is 91W, and the northeast one is JMA’s new TD.
I have to disagree with your last sentence— JMA does have low-pressure areas. Please read their reports more frequently.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
91W INVEST 140114 1200 9.0N 125.9E WPAC 15 1010
Relocated further to the east but overland east of Butuan City Mindanao according to the coordinates.
Sure is pesky...
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Meow
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
euro6208 wrote:91W INVEST 140114 1200 9.0N 125.9E WPAC 15 1010
Relocated further to the east but overland east of Butuan City Mindanao according to the coordinates.
Sure is pesky...
They are editing the file now, and it has become blank. It seems they are relocating more coordinates.
91W INVEST 140114 0600 8.6N 126.3E WPAC 15 1010
91W INVEST 140114 0000 8.2N 126.7E WPAC 15 1010
91W INVEST 140113 1800 7.9N 127.1E WPAC 15 1010
91W INVEST 140113 1200 7.5N 127.8E WPAC 15 1010
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:Meow wrote:It seems that 91W and JMA’s new TD are different systems right now.
No, it's the same system. It appears that they just were not very careful with its position. Japan calls all low pressure areas "TD".
Not necessarily. Only some invests.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1N 127.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED
AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT JUST TO THE WEST OF A WEAK
(05 TO 10 KNOT) AND ILL DEFINED LLCC. A 050129Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS POOR STRUCTURE AS THE FLARING AND BROKEN CONVECTION
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IN A HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (20 TO 30 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLARING CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO OVERALL POOR ENVIRONMENT AND
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED
AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT JUST TO THE WEST OF A WEAK
(05 TO 10 KNOT) AND ILL DEFINED LLCC. A 050129Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS POOR STRUCTURE AS THE FLARING AND BROKEN CONVECTION
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IN A HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (20 TO 30 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLARING CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO OVERALL POOR ENVIRONMENT AND
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160107Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
POOR STRUCTURE AS THE FLARING CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (20 TO 30
KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLARING
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WEAKLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT POOR ORGANIZATION IN THE
LOW LEVELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160107Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
POOR STRUCTURE AS THE FLARING CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (20 TO 30
KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLARING
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WEAKLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT POOR ORGANIZATION IN THE
LOW LEVELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
20140116 0832 11.3 -128.1 T1.0/1.0 91W 91W
TXPQ27 KNES 160916
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 16/0832Z
C. 11.3N
D. 128.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES MORE THAN 2/10 FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER
POSITION AND CLOUD FEATURES THAT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MCCARTHY
TXPQ27 KNES 160916
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 16/0832Z
C. 11.3N
D. 128.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES MORE THAN 2/10 FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER
POSITION AND CLOUD FEATURES THAT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MCCARTHY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Over 24 inches and near the coast 32 inches of rain has already fell due to this slow moving disturbance. amazing. More expected.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
TXPQ27 KNES 161142
TCSWNP
CCA
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 16/0832Z
C. 9.1N
D. 127.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. TOO WEAK
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY. TWO SSMIS IMAGES FROM
0833Z AND 0934Z REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTH. THE NEW LOCATION IS OVER 1.25 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINANT
AREA OF ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY
AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TCSWNP
CCA
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 16/0832Z
C. 9.1N
D. 127.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. TOO WEAK
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY. TWO SSMIS IMAGES FROM
0833Z AND 0934Z REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTH. THE NEW LOCATION IS OVER 1.25 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINANT
AREA OF ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY
AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
91W INVEST 140116 1200 9.4N 127.7E WPAC 20 1007
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
WTPN21 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 128.2E TO 7.9N 125.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 127.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
128.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
NORTHTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 160933Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL BROAD AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH REMAINS FRAGMENTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED TO MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 25 KNOTS) WHILE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WEAKLY DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS MINDANAO. DUE TO THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171500Z.//
NNNN
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-
Meow
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
127.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED AND PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 170048Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SHEARED STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC REMAINS LOOSELY
DEFINED DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL BROAD AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BE FRAGMENTED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRONG
(25 TO 30 KNOTS), WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
TXPQ27 KNES 170305
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 9.7N
D. 128.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
Dvorak once again increases to 1.0...
127.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED AND PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 170048Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SHEARED STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC REMAINS LOOSELY
DEFINED DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL BROAD AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BE FRAGMENTED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRONG
(25 TO 30 KNOTS), WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
TXPQ27 KNES 170305
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 9.7N
D. 128.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
Dvorak once again increases to 1.0...
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-
Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "AGATON"
Issued at 10:30 a.m., Friday 17 January 2014 The Low Pressure Area southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "AGATON".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 260 km Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or
130 km Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
Coordinates: 9.2°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move Southwest at 05 kph
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Mindanao Signal No. 1
Surigao del Norte
Siargao Is.
Surigao del Sur
Dinagat Province
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Davao Oriental
Compostella Valley
Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "AGATON"
Issued at 10:30 a.m., Friday 17 January 2014 The Low Pressure Area southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "AGATON".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 260 km Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or
130 km Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
Coordinates: 9.2°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move Southwest at 05 kph
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Mindanao Signal No. 1
Surigao del Norte
Siargao Is.
Surigao del Sur
Dinagat Province
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Davao Oriental
Compostella Valley
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
91W INVEST 140117 1200 9.7N 127.6E WPAC 20 1007
up to 1.5!
TXPQ27 KNES 170904
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 17/0832Z
C. 10.0N
D. 127.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
up to 1.5!
TXPQ27 KNES 170904
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 17/0832Z
C. 10.0N
D. 127.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
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-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
this is bad, really bad... another torrential rain event
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
TXPQ27 KNES 171507
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 17/1432Z
C. 9.9N
D. 127.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...VERY LARGE SHEARED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS VERY CLOSE
(.6 DEGREES) FROM LLC YIELDING A DT OF 2.5 HOWEVER...THOUGH CENTER
IS CLEAR CUT AND LARGE THE FEATURES (WARM CU LINES) ARE ILL DEFINED
AND LACK TIGHT CURVATURE WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SEEN IN MI AND VIS LAST
NIGHT...AS SUCH CANNOT CONFIDENTLY USE SHEAR METHOD FOR FT. MET IS 1.5
FOR DEVELOPMENT TREND WHICH SEEMS A BIT GIVEN OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND
IS LIKEWISE REJECTED. PT IS 2.0 WHICH SEEMS THE BEST FIT AND SO FT IS
2.0 BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/1142Z 9.8N 127.4E SSMIS
17/1235Z 9.7N 127.4E TMI
17/1247Z 9.7N 127.3E AMSU
...GALLINA
Up to 2.0.
Tropical Depression 01W in a few hours?
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 17/1432Z
C. 9.9N
D. 127.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...VERY LARGE SHEARED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS VERY CLOSE
(.6 DEGREES) FROM LLC YIELDING A DT OF 2.5 HOWEVER...THOUGH CENTER
IS CLEAR CUT AND LARGE THE FEATURES (WARM CU LINES) ARE ILL DEFINED
AND LACK TIGHT CURVATURE WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SEEN IN MI AND VIS LAST
NIGHT...AS SUCH CANNOT CONFIDENTLY USE SHEAR METHOD FOR FT. MET IS 1.5
FOR DEVELOPMENT TREND WHICH SEEMS A BIT GIVEN OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND
IS LIKEWISE REJECTED. PT IS 2.0 WHICH SEEMS THE BEST FIT AND SO FT IS
2.0 BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/1142Z 9.8N 127.4E SSMIS
17/1235Z 9.7N 127.4E TMI
17/1247Z 9.7N 127.3E AMSU
...GALLINA
Up to 2.0.
Tropical Depression 01W in a few hours?
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Meow
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xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
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Winds here in Cebu are gale force. Sinulog Festival is tomorrow.
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
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