WPAC: KAJIKI - Tropical Storm 02W

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE MULTIPLE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LINES CAN BEEN SEEN STREAMING INTO THE SYSTEMS CENTER. A
310438Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS PERSISTENT
WESTERLY SHEAR ACTS UPON THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONVECTION OBSCURING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED UPON CONGRUENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 02W HAS CREATED A MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OVER THE LLCC WHILE HIGHLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW IS HELPING THE
CONVECTION BUILD. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, GOOD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM (35 KNOTS). AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, THE LAND
INTERACTION WILL DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND. AFTER WHICH, THE PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU
48 AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pressure decreasing.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some areas lost power. Winds are insane! Like Basyang 2010.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mandaue City is the landfall.

[mrbagyo]

image from SSEC

[euro6208]

Current Dvorak:

PGTW- 2.0
KNES- 2.0

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We're about to lose power. Insane!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why isn't this upgraded to a TS by the JTWC? Winds here are 70 kph. They also forecast it to further weaken!

[cebuboy]

very strong winds right now here near mandaue cebu...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

very strong winds right now here near mandaue cebu...

Here pud in the city proper - Cebu. Are you losing power?

[cebuboy]

where is the center of this storm right now?

[cebuboy]

very strong winds right now here near mandaue cebu...

Here pud in the city proper - Cebu. Are you losing power?

yes, palong palong na.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

where is the center of this storm right now?

Over Maasin S Leyte.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

very strong winds right now here near mandaue cebu...

Here pud in the city proper - Cebu. Are you losing power?

yes, palong palong na.

Palong palong diri. Pressure down at 995 hPa.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(IR) DEPICTS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE THAT IS
PERSISTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310940Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CDO OBSCURING THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED
UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 02W HAS CREATED A
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS HELPING THE
CONVECTION MAINTAIN DESPITE THE VWS. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYERED
STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TD KAJIKI WILL START TO TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THIS LAND INTERACTION WILL DISRUPT
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. AFTER WHICH, THE
PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

All agencies still at 2.0- Depression so no upgrade.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Violent sounds here.

[cebuboy]

DId you see this data? http://www.noah.dost.gov.ph/
I think its below maasin as of the moment.

[cebuboy]

@xtyphooncyclonex.. sudden calm of winds..do you think its over cebu now? this one lag by an hour i think:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/rb-l.jpg

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is insane! Mandaue City is losing power, and is to be directly hit.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

@xtyphooncyclonex.. sudden calm of winds..do you think its over cebu now? this one lag by an hour i think:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/rb-l.jpg

Radar is down actually. Winds and rains here in Cebu City are insane!