WPAC: KAJIKI - Tropical Storm 02W

[dexterlabio]

The LLCC is now on the eastern edge of deep convection...at least it's getting itself covered, although partially. I don't know how Dvorak technique works but I don't get why DT numbers are kept at 1.5 when the previous TS (Lingling) managed to get up to 2.5 while being completely exposed..

[vrif]

Upgraded to TS KAJIKI

WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1402 KAJIKI (1402) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 10.1N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 11.1N 124.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 020000UTC 12.4N 119.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 030000UTC 13.7N 116.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[dexterlabio]

There's a need for upgrade, I'm with JMA on this. Kajiki looks a lot better now.

[Meow]

Happy Chinese New Year! And welcome the Chinese New Year tropical storm!



TS 1402 (KAJIKI)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 31 January 2014

<Analyses at 31/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°05'(10.1°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°05'(11.1°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

But the Haiyan-devastated area in the Philippines will not be so happy...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My place is under the threat. At least this one's moving fast, but will still drop a significant amount of rain which will cause floods in lowlands.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anyways, Gong Xi Fa Cai [Kung Hei Fat Choi] to all!

[dexterlabio]

JTWC increased the intensity to 30kts and has the center at 9.3N 130.0E, but I can't the spin near 9.0N latitude. The turning on visible sat imagery is centered above 10N right now. I agree with JMA's estimates on both location and intensity.

I encircled the spot where I believe the LLCC is located.

[dexterlabio]

Happy Chinese New Year! And welcome the Chinese New Year tropical storm!

[img]http://cl.ly/Tg56/1402-00.png



But the Haiyan-devastated area in the Philippines will not be so happy...

Gong Xi Fa Cai! Yeah definitely not a good start for the Philippines after Lingling.

That forecast track resembles Haiyan's actual track so much. Only good thing is that Kajiki is nowhere near a supertyphoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC increased the intensity to 30kts and has the center at 9.3N 130.0E, but I can't the spin near 9.0N latitude. The turning on visible sat imagery is centered above 10N right now. I agree with JMA's estimates on both location and intensity.

I encircled the spot where I believe the LLCC is located.
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/927/cjk6.jpg

I also agree on JMA's scenario and position. I see it's LLCC over 10N, as you said.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We're now under Storm Signal #2 - together with Bohol, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Eastern Samar, Samar & Camotes Island, Camiguin, Dinagat Province, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao Is., Northern Part of Surigao del Sur and Northern Part of Agusan del Norte.

[euro6208]

Already the 2nd Tropical Cyclone of the season. Fast start to the New Year!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 302324Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN
BOUNDARY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 02W HAS
CREATED A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. THE VWS HAS KEPT DEEP
CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. TD 02W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF
THE DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE TRACK SPEED IN A MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE HINDERED. WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PERSISTENT VWS,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND IMPACTS TO THE LLCC STRUCTURE, AS IT CROSSES OVER
THE PHILIPPINES, WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 48. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


207
WTPQ31 PGUM 310301
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 02
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022014
200 PM CHST FRI JAN 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND MOVING
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...9.4N 129.0E

ABOUT 395 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT 620 MILES WEST OF YAP
ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.0
EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 22 MPH...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS SPEED AND DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TD 02W BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

Current Dvorak:

PGTW- 1.5
KNES- 2.0

Remarkable Intensification.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Kajiki may intensify as it is in a good shear environment. Getting organized.

[stormkite]

KPQ30 RJTD 310000 2014031 0109
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20140131/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: KAJIKI
NR: 9
PSN: N1005 E13050
MOV: W 20KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 31/0600Z N1020 E12900
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 31/1200Z N1025 E12720
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 31/1800Z N1050 E12550
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/0000Z N1105 E12420
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20140131/0600Z =
wxtlist.k: done

[Meow]

Current Dvorak:

PGTW- 1.5
KNES- 2.0

Remarkable Intensification.

RJTD: 2.0

CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF 0.20000000000000E+001

RJTD is known as JMA.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Evacuations are already taking place and it is starting to rain.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very heavy rain persisting here.

[stormkite]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Winds picking up. JTWC should upgrade this to a TS.