WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

although convection has somewhat weakened, it has that look of a system that's about to *bomb* out.

superb outflow in all direction!

Waves are still very high and showers have resumed now as outflow impacts the marianas.

[euro6208]

953
WTPQ31 PGUM 021530
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 RELOCATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
200 AM CHST MON MAR 3 2014

...TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) TURNING NORTHWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.5N 149.5E

ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH OF ULUL
ABOUT 265 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
ADJUSTED BY THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
FAXAI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY. FAXAI IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
GUAM MONDAY NIGHT AND SAIPAN TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FAXAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO 70
MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM CHST THIS MORNING.

$$

SIMPSON

[stormkite]

Pirates cove Guam live cam at the time of post. Swell pumping in the background good surf





WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OBSCURING THE
LLCC. A 022247Z TRMM IMAGE, HOWEVER, PROVIDES SOLID SUPPORT FOR THE
CURRENT POSITION AND SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES AS
HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL STRONG
OUTFLOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TS 03W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, TS 03W IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS DUE TO WEAK
VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. TS FAXAI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY FLOW, POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS. TS
03W SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

45 knots

440
WTPQ31 PGUM 031601
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
200 AM CHST TUE MAR 4 2014

...TROPICAL STORM FAXAI NOW MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 149.9E

ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 149.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 12 MPH. FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FAXAI IS PASSING EAST OF GUAM NOW AND WILL PASS EAST OF SAIPAN LATER
THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN COULD
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
FROM THE CENTER UP TO 70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST THIS MORNING.

$$

STANKO






WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031121Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE,
HOWEVER, PROVIDES SOLID SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT POSITION AND SHOWS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, TS FAXAI IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS DUE TO WEAK VWS AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERLIES SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND. TS FAXAI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS
TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY FLOW, POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS. TS 03W SHOULD
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AND SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Up to 55 knots and forecast to become our first typhoon of the year...

We are getting gale winds gust but partly sunny weather...

268
WTPQ31 PGUM 032135
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
800 AM CHST TUE MAR 4 2014

...TROPICAL STORM FAXAI PASSING EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.6N 149.8E

ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANATAHAN
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 149.8 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 12 MPH. FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FAXAI IS PASSING EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN NOW AND WILL
PASS EAST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM FAXAI IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO 105 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

CHAN

[stormkite]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 MAR 2014 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 15:01:25 N Lon : 149:51:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.4mb/ 74.6kt




83 MPH Should already be at typhoon status. looks close now to bombing out











Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormkite]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR FAXAI (03W) 2014
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2014030318
SATCON (3mem): MSLP = 965 hPa MSW = 77 kt
ADT: 982 hPa 65 kt Scene: UNFRM
CIMSS AMSU: 966 hPa 81 kt Bias Corr: 0 (JTWC)
SSMIS: SSMISP hPa SSMISW kt
CIRA AMSU: 966 hPa 78 kt Tmax: 3.8









What more does this need to be a typhoon?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like an eye is appearing in the latest imagery. Could this be our first typhoon of the year?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR FAXAI (03W) 2014
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2014030318
SATCON (3mem): MSLP = 965 hPa MSW = 77 kt
ADT: 982 hPa 65 kt Scene: UNFRM
CIMSS AMSU: 966 hPa 81 kt Bias Corr: 0 (JTWC)
SSMIS: SSMISP hPa SSMISW kt
CIRA AMSU: 966 hPa 78 kt Tmax: 3.8








What more does this need to be a typhoon?

Should be upgraded! We are on the heels of having our 1st typhoon. Looks more like a strong cat 1 and is very organized. The center is well-defined.

[stormkite]

Looks like an eye is appearing in the latest imagery. Could this be our first typhoon of the year?

Yeah there has been a pin eye visible for quite awhile but nothing official.



Still intensifying think system will get stronger as it climbs.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[stormkite]

STS 1403 (FAXAI)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 4 March 2014

<Analyses at 04/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°50'(14.8°)
E150°00'(150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E150°50'(150.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 05/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E152°00'(152.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°50'(23.8°)
E155°55'(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N25°25'(25.4°)
E162°50'(162.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Saw a wind report of 63kph in the Northern Mariana today.



Plus a wind report of 30kts from the white kingdom

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like an eye is appearing in the latest imagery. Could this be our first typhoon of the year?

Yeah there has been a pin eye visible for quite awhile but nothing official.



Still intensifying think system will get stronger as it climbs.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It is barely a 55 knot storm expected to weaken. It is over an area of low shear and increasing. It is weakening, clearly. Why would it gain strength?

[euro6208]

Typhoon Faxai...

Just waiting for the agencies to do the right thing and upgrade

[euro6208]

03W FAXAI 140304 1200 17.5N 151.2E WPAC 65 974

We have Typhoon Faxai!

65 knots
974 mb...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

03W FAXAI 140304 1200 17.5N 151.2E WPAC 65 974

We have Typhoon Faxai!

65 knots
974 mb...

Unofficially. Amended warning.

[euro6208]

Amended Warning

First typhoon of the season!

WTPN31 PGTW 041500 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 019A AMENDED
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 151.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.1N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.1N 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1N 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 151.6E.
TYPHOON 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT:
CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO RE-EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

There is an increase in organization of its core, IMO.

[euro6208]

805
WTPQ31 PGUM 041552
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
200 AM CHST WED MAR 5 2014

...FAXAI HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.2N 151.6E

ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISHIMA
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 510 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 560 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON FAXAI WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6
DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON FAXAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. FAXAI
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
FAXAI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY TODAY THEN BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

PGTW reporting 4.0 but KNES reporting even higher at 4.5!

TPPN10 PGTW 041514

A. TYPHOON 03W (FAKAI)

B. 04/1432Z

C. 18.4N

D. 151.5E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. 1.10 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 4.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO SYSTEM DEVELOPING AN EYE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

TXPQ29 KNES 041534
TCSWNP

A. 03W (FAXAI)

B. 04/1432Z

C. 18.4N

D. 151.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS PINCHED OFF AN EYE WITH 11/10 WHITE BANDING
FOR A DT=4.5. MET AND PAT ALSO 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON