SPAC: KOFI - Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

New invest for that area.

92P INVEST 140224 1200 15.0S 165.0E SHEM 15 1010

[cycloneye]

Pressure down to 1007 mbs.

92P INVEST 140225 0000 15.4S 172.7E SHEM 20 1007

[stormkite]

Looks to be broad and disorganised on ascat. ATM




Is forecasted to be a cat1 by Thursday shem time.




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[cycloneye]

Remains at medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
173.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 177.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
SLOW-MOVING LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS AND CYCLONIC HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAIN MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

[stormkite]

92P INVEST 140227 0000 18.0S 178.5E SHEM 25 1000

[jaguarjace]

[stormkite]

.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 3 issued 0236 UTC Friday 28 February 2014.

[stormkite]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 3 issued 0236 UTC Friday 28 February 2014.

That''s actually 16P SIXTEEN

16P SIXTEEN 140228 0600 16.1S 179.5W SHEM 35 996

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PHNC 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 179.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.9S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.9S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.5S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.2S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 37.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS
ASSUMED STEERING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TC 16P WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS FROM TAU 72-96 BEFORE ACCELERATING TOWARDS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND HIGHER VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 272100).

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list: "Kofi"

[stormkite]

16P KOFI 140301 0000 19.4S 177.4W SHEM 40 993

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.9S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.7S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 33.9S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010222Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPED INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND NFFN. TC 16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE
EAST. TC KOFI IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
48, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//

[cycloneye]