SPAC: GILLIAN - Tropical Cyclone

[stormkite]

17P GILLIAN 140321 1800 10.0S 106.1E SHEM 40 993

[HurricaneBill]

The neverending cyclone!
(Oh-oh-oh)
(Oh-oh-oh)
(Oh-oh-oh)

[stormkite]

GILLIAN'S cranking it up now.
17P GILLIAN 140322 0000 10.1S 105.4E SHEM 50 985

[Spin]

Gillian is intensifying at a good pace today, it already looks at least like a strong Category 1 hurricane. Outflow seems good in most directions and deep convection is wrapping around the eye.

[Meow]

Gillian is intensifying at a good pace today, it already looks at least like a strong Category 1 hurricane. Outflow seems good in most directions and deep convection is wrapping around the eye.

12Z

BoM: Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (65-knot)
JTWC: Category 1 tropical cyclone (65-knot)

Both of agencies expect a 90-knot cyclone.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

[Meow]

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

It is Severe Tropical Cyclone which may become the most intense tropical cyclone in this season.

BoM expects a T6.0 system, equal to a JTWC’s 115-knot cyclone.

Code: Select all

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1851 UTC 22/03/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 104.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [200 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  23/0000: 12.9S 104.1E:     030 [060]:  085  [155]:  962
+12:  23/0600: 13.6S 103.8E:     045 [080]:  090  [165]:  957
+18:  23/1200: 14.3S 103.5E:     055 [105]:  095  [175]:  952
+24:  23/1800: 14.9S 103.2E:     070 [130]:  100  [185]:  947
+36:  24/0600: 15.8S 102.6E:     090 [165]:  080  [150]:  966
+48:  24/1800: 16.5S 101.9E:     110 [200]:  060  [110]:  982
+60:  25/0600: 17.0S 101.1E:     130 [235]:  045  [085]:  992
+72:  25/1800: 17.5S 100.3E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  26/1800: 17.9S  97.7E:     190 [355]:  025  [045]: 1003
+120: 27/1800: 18.4S  94.2E:     280 [515]:  020  [035]: 1009
REMARKS:
Analysis position is based on IR imagery which has shown a clearly defined eye
since 1030UTC.

Dvorak analysis using 'eye' pattern yields eye number of 5.5 based on Black
surround, with eye adjust of -0.5 due to elongated eye giving DT=FT=5.0.
Intensity has only slowly increased over the past 6 hours after a period of
rapid intensification during Saturday.

Environmental conditions will remain favourable for intensification during the
next 24 hours and a steady intensification trend is forecast. The system will
encounter unfavourable shear conditions after this time, and the incursion of
mid-level dry air may also be a factor which contributes to weakening.

The mid-level ridge which has been the dominant steering mechanism is expected
to maintain a southwest to southerly track until later on the 25th when the
sheared low-level centre follows a rapid westerly track.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[jaguarjace]

C'mon Gillian, bring some much needed rain to Perth if you can.

[stormkite]

17P GILLIAN 140322 1800 12.3S 104.4E SHEM 90 956

[Hurricane_Luis]

Gillian continues to strengthen.

[TropicalWXMA]

18Z 0.2° GFS 10-meter Wind Speed and Mean Surface Low Pressure. Gillian continues to track SE along periphery of sub-tropical ridge w/ strong meridional-directed radial outflow.

[stormkite]

17P GILLIAN 140323 0000 13.0S 104.0E SHEM 105 944

[TropicalWXMA]

00Z 0.2° GFS has Tropical Cyclone Gillian dropping down to 944mb again (currently at 944mb) at 06Z Monday morning with 60kt winds at 10-meters.

[stormkite]

00Z 0.2° GFS has Tropical Cyclone Gillian dropping down to 944mb again (currently at 944mb) at 06Z Monday morning with 60kt winds at 10-meters.

17P GILLIAN 140323 0000 13.0S 104.0E SHEM 105 944 1 minute sustained.

105 1 minute sustained multiplied by 0.88 for 10 min sustained = 92 knots.

[stormkite]

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0103 UTC 23/03/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 104.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [203 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 959 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 23/0600: 13.6S 103.7E: 030 [060]: 090 [165]: 957
+12: 23/1200: 14.3S 103.5E: 045 [080]: 090 [165]: 952
+18: 23/1800: 15.0S 103.2E: 055 [105]: 100 [185]: 947
+24: 24/0000: 15.6S 103.0E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 956
+36: 24/1200: 16.7S 102.6E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 974
+48: 25/0000: 17.8S 102.1E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 989
+60: 25/1200: 18.2S 101.0E: 130 [235]: 035 [065]: 998
+72: 26/0000: 18.1S 99.4E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1000
+96: 27/0000: 18.0S 95.1E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 28/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Analysis position is based on animated IR imagery which has shown a clearly
defined eye since 1030UTC.

There is reasonable confidence in the intensity analysis. Subjective Dvorak DTs
have reached as high as 6.0 based on a B surround with +0.5 Eadj [W/OW] but the
average DT is 5.5. Trend is D, MET is 4.5, PAT is 5.0 and FT is set to average
DT and remains within 1 of MET. ADT is in general agreement. NESDIS operational
version [8.1.4] shows CI climbing 1 T-number from 5.1 to 6.1 between 2130 and
0014UTC.CIMSS version 8.1.5 has gone from 5.0 to 5.4 over the same period. CIMSS
AMSU based on pass at 18Z indicates 96 knots 1-min mean.

Environmental conditions will remain favourable during the next 24 hours after
which northwesterly shear will increase as the mid-level trough approaches. By
Tuesday the shear is also likely to cause intrusion of dry air and the
combination is expected to result in a rapid weakening trend.

The mid-level ridge which has been the dominant steering mechanism is expected
to maintain a southwest to southerly track until the 25th when the sheared
low-level centre follows a rapid westerly track.

[stormkite]

17P GILLIAN 140323 0600 13.7S 103.6E SHEM 110 941

[WeatherGuesser]

No Cone Of Uncertainty?

+96 coordinates above indicate a southward curl, so what might that indicate for MH370 Search operations in a few days?

[Meow]

Gillian becomes the most intense tropical cyclone of this season in Australian region!

Code: Select all

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 23/03/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 103.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south [186 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 939 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  23/1800: 15.4S 103.5E:     030 [060]:  110  [205]:  939
+12:  24/0000: 16.1S 103.3E:     045 [080]:  100  [185]:  949
+18:  24/0600: 16.6S 103.1E:     055 [105]:  085  [155]:  963
+24:  24/1200: 17.1S 103.0E:     070 [130]:  065  [120]:  980
+36:  25/0000: 18.3S 102.8E:     095 [175]:  050  [095]:  993
+48:  25/1200: 19.3S 102.7E:     115 [215]:  035  [065]: 1000
+60:  26/0000: 20.3S 102.4E:     140 [260]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  26/1200: 20.9S 102.0E:     170 [315]:  025  [045]: 1005
+96:  27/1200: 21.2S  99.7E:     210 [390]:  020  [035]: 1009
+120: 28/1200: 21.5S  96.4E:     290 [535]:  020  [035]: 1009
REMARKS:
Analysis position is based on animated IR imagery and the 0830Z SSMI pass. An
eye has been clearly identifiable in IR throughout the day. Parallax corrections
are being applied to the apparent postiion on IR.

There is reasonable confidence in the intensity analysis. Subjective Dvorak DTs
have reached 6.5 over the last 4 images and the 3 hour averaged DT is now 6.5
too. This is based on a W surround with +0.5 Eadj [CMG/OW]. Trend is D to D+,
MET is 5.5, PAT is 6.0 and FT is set to average DT and remains within 1 of MET.
ADT is in general agreement. NESDIS operational version [8.1.4] is at a CI of
6.6 and CIMSS version 8.1.5 is at 6.4 over the same period. CIMSS AMSU based on
pass at 06Z indicates 103 knots 1-min mean and SATCON was at 103 knots 1-min
mean at 06Z.

Operational intensity estimate is 110 knots 10-min mean weighted to recent
Dvorak analyses.

Models indicate northwesterly shear will increase as the mid-level trough
approaches and a gradual weakening trend is forecast from 00Z Monday. By Tuesday
the shear is also likely to cause intrusion of dry air and the combination is
expected to result in a rapid weakening trend to below cyclone strength by 1800Z
25 March.

The mid-level ridge which has been the dominant steering mechanism is expected
to maintain a southwest to southerly track until late on the 26th when the
sheared low-level centre is expected to follow a rapid westerly track.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Meow]

BoM remains Gillian’s 110-knot and 939 hPa, yet JTWC analyses a category 5 tropical cyclone at 140 knots.

[supercane4867]

Honestly, this is the worst looking SSHS Cat.5 I've seen in a while