SPAC: LUSI - Tropical Cyclone

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WTPS21 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 169.0E TO 13.2S 163.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 167.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100900Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 issued 1340 UTC Sunday 9 March 2014



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 09/1326 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 167.1E
AT 091200UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD18F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
NORTH, BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED WESTWARDS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 300HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 1.5, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE CURVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD18F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list is "Lusi".

[stormkite]

18P EIGHTEEN 140309 1800 14.0S 167.2E SHEM 35 996

Should be named very soon.

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0150 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 1 CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
167.1E AT 100000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VISHR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. LUSI MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN QUADRANT

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AND AREAL EXTEND HAS ALSO INCREASED.
PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0,
MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

[Yellow Evan]

SPAC/AUS on a roll now. 3 storms at a time is not something you see every often down there.

[euro6208]

45 knots...

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AND
TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 100531Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHILE SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS
POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC
17P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AFTER
TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A WEAKENING TREND. THESE
FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH
COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING STEERING IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEREFORE FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH, MOST AGREE WITH THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO
THIS SPREAD, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULT-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

SPAC/AUS on a roll now. 3 storms at a time is not something you see every often down there.

Monsoon has been very vigorous this season i don't know if there is any correlation historically as a
precursor to a up coming transition to El Niño.

[stormkite]

18P LUSI 140311 0600 16.4S 168.2E SHEM 50 985

[euro6208]

18P LUSI 140311 1200 16.6S 169.0E SHEM 55 982

up to 55 knots!

[stormkite]

18P LUSI 140312 0600 18.8S 171.5E SHEM 65 974

[stormkite]

[stormkite]

18P LUSI 140313 0000 21.5S 174.2E SHEM 75 967

[euro6208]

18P LUSI 140313 1200 25.3S 173.8E SHEM 55 982

Down to 55 knots...

[HurricaneBill]

South Pacific Cyclone Lusi Kills 3 in Vanuatu