WPAC: 04W- Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

12Z GFS no longer shows a typhoon but a huge rainmaker for the islands and the philippines...

[stormkite]

Snippet of Navgem washed out at this point 992



GFS 989 at this point.



GFS sim quite a big outflow.



now its above 5.N gets interesting.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Time to log back in to storm2k and share my thoughts. Below is my video analysis for today and below that is the 5 day forecast. Beyond due to the passing upper level trough confidence is super low. Even at this point we are still watching it develop so I guess Im going out out on a limb with the forecast I do see.

NOT OFFICIAL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJzVEk7LnSw

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06Z GFS run shows at least a 70-knot typhoon hitting Visayas.

I started noticing the southward trend, which means those hit by Haiyan are under the gun, but I agree with Rob that the EXACT track will not be known yet.

By the way, here is my possible projection on 94W.



[Note: I am not a professional meteorologist, and therefore this is only my opinion and rely on it as a REAL forecast. Thank you]


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest CMC run very bullish as they develop this into a 979 mbar typhoon east of the Philippines. Lots of uncertainty now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Snippet of Navgem washed out at this point 992



GFS 989 at this point.



GFS sim quite a big outflow.



now its above 5.N gets interesting.

GFS, actually, is stronger in the latest runs, as they show at least a 60/70-kt storm and this run, they show a 975 mb storm. We will get winds and rains!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not bad track map there, I think if the passing trough wasent there I would be more confident on the straight runner.

Very interesting with the latest run of the GFS though. A full on typhoon in southern Luzon.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140314 1200 5.0N 165.0E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

27 hours ago




Latest



Not much improvement...

[dexterlabio]

Latest 06z GFS run not anymore showing a typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe the MJO and low shear provided with high SST's will fuel this system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest 06z GFS run not anymore showing a typhoon.

The past three runs show a 50 kt storm [usually the actual strength is x1.5] of the storm shown. I still think a typhoon is likely, given the shear is low again and with the warm temperature anomalies.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All the runs take this to the Visayas. I feel bad for the Haiyan victims.

[dexterlabio]

I personally would wait for an organized disturbance first. Convective structure not as good as it was the past few days. If I were a betting man I'd go with a severe tropical storm just east of Samar a week from now.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[ManilaTC]

Its gone in NRL.

[euro6208]

94W back on...

062
FXPQ60 PGUM 160636 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
310 PM CHST SUN MAR 16 2014

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST
24 HRS...AND HAS NEITHER A WELL-ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION NOR
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT
SATELLITE DOES SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM
THE EAST. MEANWHILE...BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS NEAR 7 FEET...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF FROM ANY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CHUUK DISTURBANCE...AND KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SOUTH OF
THE MARIANAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL OVER-DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO THAT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED IN THE
FORECAST--MAINLY A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
PROBABILITY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY DRY WEEK COMING UP
FOR THE MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
FRESH EAST WINDS AND A RISING EAST SWELL FROM HIGHER TRADES OUT TO
THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 10-11 FT SEAS MAINLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS AND
SOUTH OF GUAM...WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE EITHER THE GUAM OR THE
SAIPAN BUOY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL AT 20 KT...BUT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HELD OFF ON AN EAST-SIDE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR NOW...AS GRIDS INDICATE 8-9 FT SWELL IN THE SURF
ZONES...AND 8 TO 11 FT SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK REMAINS VERY WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z MODEL ANALYSIS APPEARS TO SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. WEATHER IS FOCUSED ON THE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN EDGES OF THE DISTURBANCE...NEAR CHUUK...ACROSS POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE TO SOUTH OF MAJURO. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS
CONVERGING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BULK OF THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRY TRADES AT MAJURO WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON TUESDAY. MODELS DEPICT SOME TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE DATE LINE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MICRONESIA AND TO THE NORTH ARE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THE LARGE SWELL AT CHUUK...POHNPEI...KOSRAE
AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THE 4 LOCALES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME
COASTAL INUNDATION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AROUND
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER SCENARIO AT CHUUK WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO REASONING AT
POHNPEI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REACH CHUUK ON MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.

FAIR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AT YAP AND KOROR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS STILL PLACE A BIT OF WEIGHT ON THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK
BRINGING WEATHER TO YAP AND KOROR THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS FAVORS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WHEREAS ECMWF MAINTAINS AN OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.
FORECAST WILL SEE SOME FINE-TUNING NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE WATCH THIS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEST.

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS GENERATED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM OKINAWA ARE PRODUCING A NEW SET OF
NORTHEAST SWELL ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RESIDUAL NORTHEAST SWELL IN THE AREA TO PROLONG HAZARDOUS
SURF ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140316 1200 6.3N 152.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

What a drastic change from previous runs. 12Z GFS merely has a struggling disturbance with a TD making landfall over the philippines...

[dexterlabio]

Yeah....a TD is more likely now..

[stormkite]

Yeah has tamed down quite a bit but the latest Navgem and Canadian model runs indicating lots of rain.
No doubt the models will change again.



Canadian