WPAC: 04W- Tropical Depression

#41 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:52 pm

Agreed with the post above, happy the models have tamed but this is still evolving and we still have a lot of cloud cover there. It not red alert any more but Im not going to turn away from it just yet. Still could be a flood maker.

euro6208 · #42 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:20 pm

94W INVEST 140317 1800 7.4N 140.2E WPAC 15 1010

Near Yap...

#43 Postby **stormkite** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:35 pm

LLCC looks to be firing up on the sat-pic atm. Edited to add region loops.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/

euro6208 · #44 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:50 pm

94W INVEST 140318 0000 7.7N 138.5E WPAC 15 1010

#45 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:49 pm

Last 12 hours she really got her act together. I wouldnt be surprised at the very least JMA puts out a minor TD today.

#46 Postby **ManilaTC** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:07 am

Just when I posted a "back off" scenario from the models hahaha... WPAC is like a girl, very fickle

#47 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:44 am

Thoughts....

euro6208 · #48 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:09 am

very impressive banding and healthy rotation. won't be surprised if this becomes our 4th TC of the season before hitting the philippines...

xtyphooncyclonex · #49 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:15 am

This should be our 4th named storm but this would be weak!

Meow · #50 Postby **Meow** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:44 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Last 12 hours she really got her act together. I wouldnt be surprised at the very least JMA puts out a minor TD today.

Yes.

WWJP25 RJTD 180600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 180600.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 138E WEST SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

euro6208 · #51 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:53 am

94W INVEST 140318 1200 7.8N 136.2E WPAC 15 1010

SSD now at 1.0!

euro6208 · #52 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:59 am

06Z showing a strong disturbance/depression making landfall over northern mindanao....

Looks like conditions down the road aren't too favorable given it's impressive appearance now...

xtyphooncyclonex · #53 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:14 am

euro6208 wrote:06Z showing a strong disturbance/depression making landfall over northern mindanao....

Looks like conditions down the road aren't too favorable given it's impressive appearance now...

Shear is very low and is decreasing. SSTs are high.. This could be at least 35-kts later!

xtyphooncyclonex · #54 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:14 am

JTWC ignored it.

euro6208 · #55 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:20 am

well could be a 10 min depression or whatever their data shows but not 1 min as all data doesn't support right now...

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:JTWC ignored it.

#56 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:42 am

Looks like JTWC is done ignoring it, they have it as a "low" now.

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:47 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N 136.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A
181205Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NO IDENTIFIABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS,
SUPPORTING THE ASCAT DATA. A 181205Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
ADDITIONALLY DEPICTS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH
CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRCIPITABLE WATER LOOP. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIR
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

euro6208 · #58 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:40 am

-Nice looking Mid Level Circulation but ASCAT pass shows no Identifiable Low Level Circulation with surface observation from koror depict weak and variable winds supporting the ASCAT data.

:double:

however KNES at 1.5!

TXPQ21 KNES 181510
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 18/1432Z

C. 7.9N

D. 135.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BSED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET-1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1205Z 7.8N 136.0E AMSU

...SCHWARTZ

Will we get our 4th TD of the season later on today???

#59 Postby **stormkite** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:32 pm

Off topic euro i noticed before you posted a ACE score link do you still have the link and does it work.

euro6208 · #60 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:02 am

Still no LLC and it looks like an open wave now...

Oh better luck next time!

Down to TOO WEAK...

TXPQ21 KNES 182135
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 18/2032Z

C. 8.2N

D. 134.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LESS THAN 2/10
CURVED BANDING. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

oh well...
...MCCARTHY

WPAC: 04W- Tropical Depression

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