WPAC: 04W- Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#61 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:52 am

Image

Poof...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING AND LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A
190618Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE OVERALL REMAINING POORLY ORGANIZED. THE
LATEST ASCAT PASS (190041Z) SHOWS ELONGATED TROUGHING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH STRONGER (15 TO 20 KNOTS) GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AND WEAKER (05 TO 10 KNOTS) WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA
IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#62 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:01 pm

Image

:lol:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
131.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING AND LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 191657Z NOAA-19 COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
ILL-DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meow

#63 Postby Meow » Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:27 am

Cute LLCC…

Image

SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#64 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:59 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 129.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
201051Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 201304Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS, PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 20/09Z SHIP REPORT, 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CENTER, INDICATES SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS
WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meow

#65 Postby Meow » Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:01 pm

It is forming intense convection.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#66 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:07 pm

Meow wrote:Cute LLCC…



Meow wrote:It is forming intense convection.



Indeed....up to 1.0!

TXPQ21 KNES 201506
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 20/1432Z

C. 7.5N

D. 129.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER MEASURES
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#67 Postby stormkite » Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:58 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#68 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:01 pm

Image

TPPN10 PGTW 210031

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 20/2332Z

C. 8.7N

D. 129.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .20 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0,
PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAPP


TXPQ21 KNES 210010
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 20/2332Z

C. 8.3N

D. 130.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM TRYING TO ORGANIZE WITH LLCC SW OF FORMATIVE BAND
OF JUST OVER 2/10 FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3406
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#69 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:46 pm

PAGASA upgraded the system to a tropical depression and locally named "Caloy".
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#70 Postby stormkite » Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:12 am

The equinox the sun crossed the equator today and moved into the northern hem.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#71 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:55 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 210044Z METOP-A
IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. HOWEVER, A
210045Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE AND WEAKER WINDS NEAR
THE DISTURBANCE WITH SLP AS LOW AS 1006.8 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD AND OVER
MINDANAO, HINDERED BY PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
LLCC. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

PGTW reporting 1.0 while KNES says TOO WEAK!


TXPQ21 KNES 210949
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 21/0832Z

C. 9.4N

D. 127.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...REPOSITIONED CENTER BASED ON A BEST ESTIMATE OF A
LLCC FROM THE 0814Z SSMIS 37GHz IMAGE. DT OF 0 RESULTED FROM LT 0.2
BANDING. MET AND PT ARE LT 1.0. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY
DUE TO INSUFFICIENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN UNTIL REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meow

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W - JMA (Tropical Depression)

#72 Postby Meow » Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:16 pm

euro6208 wrote:PGTW reporting 1.0 while KNES says TOO WEAK!


SSD (KNES) updates at different time. At 1432Z, 94W has T1.0.

TXPQ21 KNES 211556
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 21/1432Z

C. 8.7N

D. 127.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#73 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:58 pm

TD 04W
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION

#74 Postby stormkite » Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:18 pm

04W FOUR 140322 0000 9.4N 126.9E WPAC 25 1004
Image
Image


WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.0N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 126.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND
230300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
212200). //
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#75 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:29 pm

Shear is low-moderate, making it favorable for storm development. Let's see if this reaches tropical storm strength.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

Meow

#76 Postby Meow » Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:45 am

JTWC analyses a 30-knot TD, yet JMA still considers it below 30-knot.
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#77 Postby stormkite » Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:50 am

2014MAR22 100100 2.4 1007.0 34.0
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... W-list.txt
Might just get there.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: 04W- Tropical Depression

#78 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:15 am

Image

:D

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS WEAKENING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH HAS STARTED TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR LOOP
AND RADAR ANIMATION FROM CEBU STATION, PHILIPPINES, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO OPEN UP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DECREASING STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE IR LOOP ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 04W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, WEAKENING DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE ISLANDS BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE SULU SEA
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXPOSED TO THE RELATIVELY DRIER NORTHEAST
MONSOON FLOW. THE AVAILABLE LIMITED NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK BUT IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD DUE TO THE
WEAKENED STATE OF THE VORTEX. THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meow

#79 Postby Meow » Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:03 pm

Bye bye, the remnants of TD 04W... :roll:

Image

Code: Select all

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 125.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 125.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 8.9N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 8.2N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 124.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOP FROM CEBU AND HINATUAN (COURTESY OF DOST) INDICATES THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED AND SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION, BASED ON THE LLCC, HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED
SINCE IT DRAGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MINDANAO. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS DEDUCED FROM THE 221500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND
SUPPORTED BY THE 221800Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD. TD 04W IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SULU SEA AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 12 DUE TO FRICTIONAL AND MOISTURE-HINDERING EFFECTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IN ADDITION TO ITS EXPOSURE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRIER NORTHEAST MONSOON WINDS. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET.  //
NNNN
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#80 Postby stormkite » Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:47 pm

04W FOUR
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 23, 2014:

Location: 9.4°N 124.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
You can clearly still see the LLCC rotating.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 123 guests