WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression

[richard-K2013]

Final Warning~~

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 131.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 05W HAS BECOME BROAD, ILL-DEFINED, AND EMBEDDED IN AN
ELONGATED TROUGH. SEE PARA 1.A.(1) FOR DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS SHEARED WESTWARD BUT CONTINUES TO FLARE DUE TO A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO A POSSIBILITY OF THE LLCC TO REORGANIZE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

it's back...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 132E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-
EXPOSED YET WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. A 112115Z
WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Back up to MEDIUM!

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 05W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ALBEIT DEFINED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 120130Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE MAX WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) LOCATED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES ALONG THE FLARING
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ex-Tropical Storm Peipah is bringing some rains and thunderstorms here in the Visayas, and may cause some flash floods and landslides.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just for a weak, sheared TS, we have 10 pages? That's even more than in the page of cyclone Ita, which only has 3.

[Meow]

Just for a weak, sheared TS, we have 10 pages? That's even more than in the page of cyclone Ita, which only has 3.

Just for a weak invest in Atlantic, we have at least 10 pages.

If this system redevelops into a TS, it will be named Tapah.

[stormkite]

Just for a weak, sheared TS, we have 10 pages? That's even more than in the page of cyclone Ita, which only has 3.

Just for a weak invest in Atlantic, we have at least 10 pages.

If this system redevelops into a TS, it will be named Tapah.

N/C totally exposed
.
Flooding i would think be a real issue now looks to a moisture bomb on the way.



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[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 05W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 129.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATING, AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 130109Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE MAX WINDS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LOCATED IN THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES WHILE THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (05
TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Showers spreading over the philippines...

[senorpepr]

JMA upgraded Peipah to a tropical depression as of 12Z.

WWJP25 RJTD 131800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 30N 134E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 30N 134E TO 28N 136E 26N 139E.
COLD FRONT FROM 30N 134E TO 26N 131E 24N 127E 23N 122E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 46N 171E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 53N 125E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 990 HPA AT 55N 178E NE 15 KT.
LOW 986 HPA AT 60N 178W WEST 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 119E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 40N 132E SOUTH SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 37N 145E EAST 15 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 125E TO 53N 130E 52N 135E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 125E TO 51N 123E 48N 120E 44N 115E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N 158E TO 26N 167E 32N 177E 34N 179W 34N
173W.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 05W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 126.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 140613Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS NOT IMPROVED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


TXPQ22 KNES 140905
TCSWNP

A. 05W (PEIPAH)

B. 14/0832Z

C. 11.4N

D. 126.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
MEASURABLE BANDING AND POORLY ORGANIZED LLC. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[stormkite]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiZbbi_iQ6M[/youtube]

[euro6208]

05W PEIPAH 140415 1800 9.8N 126.7E WPAC 15 1010