WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression

[mrbagyo]

here we go! nice support from ECMWF...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This possibly would end up like Isa of 1997. Isa formed on an El Niño year, but before it had actually started.Might be a repeated version of Bopha of 2012, except that this formed way earlier and on an El Niño year but before the main event. This might also set records for southernmost formation and intensity!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How are the conditions now, Are they favorable enough?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I expect at least a typhoon making landfall in Central or Southern Philippines on Early April.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS is with a strong tropical storm or weak typhoon.

[stormkite]

GFS is always bullish its to early to speculate a few other models i looked at suggest a weak to modest low.

The latest from GFS below don't support any bullish model previously published. Its another one of these take each day as it unfolds.






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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 164.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTSPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION, WHILE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRUCLATION IN
THE AREA. A 282245Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF
EASTERLIES WITH NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PRESENT AT THIS TIME. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH
LIMITED DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

here we go!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS still shows some possible development of this invest with a recurve just before the Philippines, in the long-range.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF is still on a typhoon making landfall over Mindanao [Southern Philippines] and eerily has the scenario of Typhoon Bopha of 2012, which got records for its latitude and strength.

[dexterlabio]

There's a good chance of it affecting the Philippines but there's also a chance that it won't... however if it does form into an intense cyclone, it will surely have an impact on ENSO. Especially if Euro's forecast pans out.. a typhoon stronger and closer to the equator would produce more significant WWB in the Pacific..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There's a good chance of it affecting the Philippines but there's also a chance that it won't... however if it does form into an intense cyclone, it will surely have an impact on ENSO. Especially if Euro's forecast pans out.. a typhoon stronger and closer to the equator would produce more significant WWB in the Pacific..

I just checked the conditions, and they are very similar during Typhoon Bopha. It will be enhanced by the upcoming MJO too and could have a high chance of being the 2nd typhoon in the basin.

[stormkite]

20 knot shear line N.

If there is a El Niño hope its the shortest ever absolutely no benefit to Australia or Asia. Wespac don't need any turbo charging last season was proof in the pudding.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[xtyphooncyclonex]

20 knot shear line N.

If there is a El Niño hope its the shortest ever absolutely no benefit to Australia or Asia. Wespac don't need any turbo charging last season was proof in the pudding.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

The powerful subtropical ridge [STR] will push this storm south, in the area of extremely low wind shear and the stronger shear is still located north. This storm has a good chance of developing and could still develop, although its northern periphery could be sheared away.

Speaking about the El Niño, I would be fine with it. We've had too much rain in the Philippines and the Pacific coastlines over the Americas need more rain. Well, yeah, in Australia, this could also be causing wildfires, record high temperatures and droughts. But also, this El Niño will bring good rains to the previously drought-affected areas and a break from Asian and Australian floods.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, this will be moving erratically over the Pacific, near the Philippines, INTENSIFYING before making landfall over the area due to the STR. It may re-curve before dissipating due to strong wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures.
_________________________________________________________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

The powerful subtropical ridge [STR] will push this storm south, in the area of extremely low wind shear and the stronger shear is still located north. This storm has a good chance of developing and could still develop, although its northern periphery could be sheared away.

Speaking about the El Niño, I would be fine with it. We've had too much rain in the Philippines and the Pacific coastlines over the Americas need more rain. Well, yeah, in Australia, this could also be causing wildfires, record high temperatures and droughts. But also, this El Niño will bring good rains to the previously drought-affected areas and a break from Asian and Australian floods.

Having an El Nino doesn't always mean a break from severe rainfall in SE Asia. Typhoon seasons which coincided with El Nino were menacing in the Philippines (ex. 2004, 2006, 2009). The most recent El Nino in 2009 had Ketsana and Parma which brought record rainfall and flashflood in Luzon. There was also a moderate El Nino in 1991 and that year featured tropical storm Thelma which caused intense rainfall and deadly flashflood in the Visayas.

Which makes me think that the effects of drought could be minimized if people knows how to stock water when there is rain and conserve them wisely...



BTW the recent ECMWF run has a weaker storm but still at lower latitude.

[stormkite]

IMO, this will be moving erratically over the Pacific, near the Philippines, INTENSIFYING before making landfall over the area due to the STR. It may re-curve before dissipating due to strong wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures.
_________________________________________________________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You maybe correct with your opinion of the invest. Think myself i will wait for Rob from wespac for his forecast.

Most of Australia the SE is already in drought they are crying out loud for rain. Australia is the driest
continent on earth xtyphooncyclonex.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/t ... ut/5295232

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The powerful subtropical ridge [STR] will push this storm south, in the area of extremely low wind shear and the stronger shear is still located north. This storm has a good chance of developing and could still develop, although its northern periphery could be sheared away.

Speaking about the El Niño, I would be fine with it. We've had too much rain in the Philippines and the Pacific coastlines over the Americas need more rain. Well, yeah, in Australia, this could also be causing wildfires, record high temperatures and droughts. But also, this El Niño will bring good rains to the previously drought-affected areas and a break from Asian and Australian floods.

Having an El Nino doesn't always mean a break from severe rainfall in SE Asia. Typhoon seasons which coincided with El Nino were menacing in the Philippines (ex. 2004, 2006, 2009). The most recent El Nino in 2009 had Ketsana and Parma which brought record rainfall and flashflood in Luzon. There was also a moderate El Nino in 1991 and that year featured tropical storm Thelma which caused intense rainfall and deadly flashflood in the Visayas.

Which makes me think that the effects of drought could be minimized if people knows how to stock water when there is rain and conserve them wisely...



BTW the recent ECMWF run has a weaker storm but still at lower latitude.

2009's El Nino was weak [Modoki?] at the time and what I actually meant was EXCLUDING typhoons, it would be dry.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, this will be moving erratically over the Pacific, near the Philippines, INTENSIFYING before making landfall over the area due to the STR. It may re-curve before dissipating due to strong wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures.
_________________________________________________________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You maybe correct with your opinion of the invest. Think myself i will wait for Rob from wespac for his forecast.

Most of Australia the SE is already in drought they are crying out loud for rain. Australia is the driest
continent on earth xtyphooncyclonex.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-12/t ... ut/5295232

Maybe next year would be a La Nina, which would bring us here in ASIA and you guys there beneficial rains and water.

[Correction: Antarctica]

[dexterlabio]

2009's El Nino was weak [Modoki?] at the time and what I actually meant was EXCLUDING typhoons, it would be dry.

Moderate El Nino was well in place by Oct-Nov 2009, and it actually turned Modoki on its secondary peak around Jan 2010... I believe 1991 was moderate EN too.


That's exactly my point though, typhoon-induced rainfall can be used to prepare ourselves for drought. When the typhoon season is over, that's when all our rainfall source gets cut off.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF picks up still on another Bopha-esque scenario but weaker.