SPAC: ITA - Tropical Cyclone

[stormkite]

Beauty

Wont be Beauty for those in the path has already taken lives you dont you think its already done enough damage? and for what a stronger WWB very

[Ntxw]

Wont be Beauty for those in the path has already taken lives you dont you think its already done enough damage? and for what a stronger WWB very

Of course not. It's a beauty for what it looks on satellite. I have no control over it or any one just stating what it is. Mother nature doesn't care what any of us want or don't want so lets not go there.

[euro6208]

1 min- 100 knots (Category 3 SSHS)

10 min- 85 knots (Category 3 AUS)

Category 3 (AUS)

Maximum Mean Wind 118 - 159 KPH
Typical Strongest Gust 165 - 224 KPH
Central Pressure 970 - 955

64-85 kt GUSTING 90-121 kt or Category 1/2 (SSHS)

Category 4 (AUS)

Maximum Mean Wind 160 - 199 KPH
Typical Strongest Gust 225 - 279 KPH
Central Pressure 955 - 930

86-107 kt GUSTING 122-151 kt or Category 2/3 (SSHS)

Category 5 (AUS)

Maximum Mean Wind > 200 KPH
Typical Strongest Gust > 279 KPH
Central Pressure < 930

>107 kt GUSTING >151 kt or Category 3/4/5 (SSHS)

Trying to learn the AUS scale and it looks like every category on their scale is weaker/lower winds but has higher category compared to the SSHS scale which is higher so a category 4 or 5 there is equivalent to a category 2/3 here and the states...

Still a dangerous cyclone no matter what...

[Ntxw]

Trying to learn the AUS scale and it looks like every category on their scale is weaker/lower winds compared to the SSHS scale which is higher so a category 4 or 5 there is equivalent to a category 2/3 here and the states...

Still a dangerous cyclone no matter what...

Where can we get information on the Australian scale? If you don't mind

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After Ita, we may see another strong cyclone near the Bismarck Sea in the long-range. This will really help development of an El Niño due to very enhanced WWB plus GFS develops a typhoon with at least 64 knot winds in the west Pacific near the IDL interacting with another tropical storm. This may be due to the strong MJO nearing the Pacific and will favor an early start too for a El Niño as subsurface temps are warming and are closer now to the surface.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope those folks over the Northeastern coast of Australia will be prepared, and will not get what they had during Yasi and Larry.

[euro6208]

Trying to learn the AUS scale and it looks like every category on their scale is weaker/lower winds compared to the SSHS scale which is higher so a category 4 or 5 there is equivalent to a category 2/3 here and the states...

Still a dangerous cyclone no matter what...

Where can we get information on the Australian scale? If you don't mind

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/faq/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Australia_and_Fiji

their scale makes me stronger in category but our scale (SSHS) makes them weaker...

remember though they use 10 min...

[euro6208]

After Ita, we may see another strong cyclone near the Bismarck Sea in the long-range. This will really help development of an El Niño due to very enhanced WWB plus GFS develops a typhoon with at least 64 knot winds in the west Pacific near the IDL interacting with another tropical storm. This may be due to the strong MJO nearing the Pacific and will favor an early start too for a El Niño as subsurface temps are warming and are closer now to the surface.

i've seen the GFS...we potentially could be tracking 2 storms doing a fujiwhara right near guam!..

[Ntxw]

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/faq/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Australia_and_Fiji

their scale makes me stronger in category but our scale (SSHS) makes them weaker...

remember though they use 10 min...

Thanks, it's a little confusing at first but not too difficult to learn. Scary system either way for them, it's a wake up call for everyone in all the Pacific basins to be prepared/alert and understanding how favorable conditions can get with the way things are setting up.

[stormkite]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0058 UTC 10/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 147.9E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [25 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 10/0600: 12.4S 147.2E: 025 [045]: 090 [165]: 955
+12: 10/1200: 12.7S 146.5E: 035 [065]: 095 [175]: 950
+18: 10/1800: 13.2S 146.1E: 050 [090]: 100 [185]: 944
+24: 11/0000: 13.7S 145.6E: 060 [115]: 105 [195]: 940
+36: 11/1200: 14.7S 144.8E: 080 [150]: 100 [180]: 942
+48: 12/0000: 15.6S 144.1E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 967
+60: 12/1200: 16.5S 144.1E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 13/0000: 17.5S 144.9E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 999
+96: 14/0000: 18.7S 148.4E: 185 [340]: 030 [055]: 1000
+120: 15/0000: 20.3S 151.6E: 270 [500]: 040 [070]: 994
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern with
a white surround and a subtraction of 1.0 for a black eye combined with a white
surround, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT are 6.0 and 5.5 respectively.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has shown signs of intensifying over the last few
hours with warming beginning to occur in the middle of cirrus shield that has
been covering the system over much of the last 12 hours. The system remains
situated in a low vertical wind shear environment with sea surface temperatures
greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS upper winds depict very good outflow above the
system, which should allow intensification into a category 4 to occur today. The
STIPS guidance has capped the intensity of the system to no more than 105 knots
[1 minute], but intensification into a category 5 cannot be ruled out prior to
landfall.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under
the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up
over the Solomon Islands. The mid-level ridge is expected to erode into Friday,
which should then lead to the system developing a southwest track prior to
landfall along the far north Queensland coast. Most of the global computer
models are now indicating that the system will cross the far north Queensland
coast late Friday between Cape Sidmouth and Cooktown.






http://www.australiasevereweather.com/c ... _scale.htm



Solomon Islands floods: Pacific correspondent Sean Dorney describes Honiara devastation
Pacific correspondent Sean Dorney, Monday April 7, 2014 - 21:25 EST
Pacific correspondent Sean Dorney is a frequent visitor to Solomon Islands, but says he's never seen the level of devastation caused by last week's flash floods.

I've visited Solomon Islands perhaps 30 times since 1980, but never have I seen the capital Honiara in such a mess.

At least 20 people have been killed and families talk about watching children swept out to sea or relatives disappearing.

Dozens remain unaccounted for.

The floods have caused terrific devastation, especially along the rivers that run through the city.

You can also see evidence of that along coast as you drive from the airport into town.

This wreckage along the rivers is just unprecedented - I've been talking to Solomon Islanders who've lived here a long long time, and they're saying the same thing - they've never seen anything like this.

The stretch of river along between where the old bridge that stood there for 60 years, but has been swept away, used to be and the main bridge - either side of the river it's just unbelievable to see the damage that's been caused.



The traffic is moving at a snail's pace, but the police have been very good, manning the one-lane main bridge - stopping the traffic in one direction and allowing the other direction to go.

At the hotel I've booked in to there's a half-capsized boat washed up beside the swimming pool.

The water supply has been disrupted to parts of the city and there are worries about the sewerage system - so health is a major concern.



It's quite a shock to see an area that you knew pretty well being wrecked as it is at the moment.

One of the factors that contributed to the loss of life was how rapidly the water rose.

As you fly in, you can see that logs have been swept out to sea and then brought back in by the tide, and driving in to town, you can see that along the beaches there are logs.

One of the locals was saying to me that what took everyone by surprise was how rapidly the waters rose here when it reached Honiara.

The speculation was that logging inland of Honiara meant logs that were swept into the river during the torrential rain may have created an artificial dam which then burst with devastating consequences.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml

[richard-K2013]

Ita is now a category 4 tropical cyclone...

[jaguarjace]

Intensifies further into a category 5 cyclone.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Issued at 5:00 pm EST Thursday 10 April 2014.



Remarks:
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, is expected to move in a general southwest direction
towards the far north Queensland coast tonight and into Friday, while possibly intensifying further.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita poses a significant threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast
and at this stage it is expected to approach the coast between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation and make
landfall late on Friday as a SEVERE CATEGORY 5 TROPICAL CYCLONE with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
near the core and GALES extending some distance from the landfall location.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend 80 kilometres out from the centre and may develop between Cape
Sidmouth and Cooktown from as early as Friday morning before extending inland to Laura and further south to
Cape Tribulation and possibly Port Douglas later in the day.
GALES extend 190 kilometres out from the centre and may develop between Lockhart RIver and Cape
Tribulation from as early as late tonight before extending further south to Innisfail and inland to Kalinga,
Palmerville, Laura, and Chillagoe later in the day as the system moves closer to the coast and over land.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation are specifically warned of the dangerous storm
tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be
significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas
extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures
to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the
area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about parts of the Peninsula and
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts tonight and persist into the weekend.

[stormkite]

From the Tech Bulliten...

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has intensified significantly today with the system
now exhibiting a clear eye pattern on the recent satellite imagery. Deep
convection has developed further near the inner core of the system with very
cold cloud top temperatures now surrounding a well defined warm eye in the
infrared satellite imagery. The system remains situated in a low vertical wind
shear environment with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS
upper winds depict very good outflow above the system, which has allowed
intensification to occur today. ADT is following this intensifying trend with a
greater than a 100 knot system being analysed.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under
the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up
over the Solomon Islands. The system has been moving faster than forecast and
quicker than any of the computer model guidance is indicating, so therefore some
persistence has been paid to the short term forecast track. The mid-level ridge
is expected to erode into Friday, which should then lead to the system
developing a southwest track prior to landfall along the far north Queensland
coast. Most of the global computer models are now indicating that the system
will cross the far north Queensland coast late Friday between Cape Melville and
Cooktown.
_________________________



Prolly going to end up like TC Gillian 140 Knots cat 5 monster on the SSHWS. Very small destructive core.

[euro6208]

Prolly going to end up like TC Gillian 140 Knots cat 5 monster on the SSHWS. Very small destructive core.

23P ITA 140410 0600 12.5S 147.1E SHEM 115 937

BOOM!

Category 4 cyclone of 115 knots! incredible...

[stormkite]

The calm before the storm in the Daintree here, hoping the extra weight on my hydro intake will hold and the roof for that matter Hurricane force


latest access model has ITA ruining the whole coastline.

[euro6208]

Dangerous cyclone and could make a run to category 5 status on the SSHS! JT track is inland but barely and direct hit on Cairn, BOM is more west further inland...

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 146.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO A 10-NM PINHOLE EYE AS THE SYSTEM - CHARACTERIZED BY SHARP
CURVED OUTLINES - HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 23P IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE CORAL SEA. AFTER TAU 12,
TC 23P WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS IN ANTICIPATION FOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. TC ITA WILL PEAK AT 135 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH THE AUSTRALIAN COAST AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TAU 72
BUT WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

PGTW- 6.0

KNES- 6.0

CIMSS- 5.6- 104.6 knots RAW up to 5.8

6.0 = 115 knots...

[dexterlabio]

Ita is the same storm that flooded Solomon islands as a TD, isn't it? And are there any reports from PNG about the cyclone's effects?

[Yellow Evan]

Ita is the same storm that flooded Solomon islands as a TD, isn't it? And are there any reports from PNG about the cyclone's effects?

Yes, and not that I know of.

[cycloneye]

Impressive eye.