SPAC: ITA - Tropical Cyclone

[stormkite]

97P INVEST 140401 0000 6.7S 160.5E SHEM 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9S 158.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF BUALA, SANTA ISABEL, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 312333Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONIARA SHOW 05 TO 10 KNOT NORTH-EASTERLY
WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[stormkite]

model forecasting a bush with Darwin.

97P INVEST 140402 0600 10.4S 158.4E SHEM 20 1003

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S
159.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 158.9E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST
OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 020413Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REAVEALS
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO CENTER. A 022220Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION
WITH 25 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

Ascat pass suggests time to name this invest.



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[euro6208]

WTPS21 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030321ZAPR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 11.7S 157.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1S
158.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
032234Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-40 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, WHILE THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT REMAINS WEAK AT 10-20 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

23P TWENTYTHREE 140404 1800 11.3S 156.1E SHEM 35 996

[HurricaneBill]

Will Papua New Guinea be naming this one?

[stormkite]

23P TWENTYTHRE 140405 0000 11.6S 155.9E SHEM 40 993

Will Papua New Guinea be naming this one?

Hope not they speak pidgin English


TPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

042100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 155.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A RECENT SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 041757Z SSMIS PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 23P HAS INTENSIFIED TO THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF ITS
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC REMAINS EXPOSED DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. TC
23P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING RIDGE PERSISTS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DIP POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE FAVORABLE
INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE
OFFSET BY CONTINUED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. STEADIER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR
RELAXES A BIT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH TRACK SPEEDS
VARY, WITH GFS SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM IN RESPONSE
TO ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
RIDGE WEAKENING IN GFS IS INCONSISTENT WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY NAVGEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND ECMWF,
WHICH SHOW A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK DRIVEN BY A CONTINUOUS, UNBROKEN
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 040321Z APR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330).//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Ita
Issued at 10:53 pm EST Saturday 5 April 2014.



Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 1, is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction
over the next few days, while intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Ita is expected to remain well offshore for the next
few days and poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.

[HurricaneBill]

Deadly Solomons storm becomes cyclone that may threaten Queensland

[dexterlabio]

Will Papua New Guinea be affected? I once worked at Mt. Hagen near Port Moresby. I thought PNG has never been threatened by any cyclones before. The worst I experienced there were severe thunderstorms but only sudden.

[stormkite]

Will Papua New Guinea be affected? I once worked at Mt. Hagen near Port Moresby. I thought PNG has never been threatened by any cyclones before. The worst I experienced there were severe thunderstorms but only sudden.

A Torres Strait scenario is potentially not a nice one; there are inhabited islands in the Torres Strait which rise only a couple of metres above sea level, definitely not places you want to be in a storm surge. You have to go back to the 1920s for the last major TC impact in that part of the world.

[stormkite]

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 6 April 2014
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 9 April 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday Very Low
Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Very Low


In the longer term, Tropical Cyclone Ita in the northern Coral Sea is expected
to develop further as it moves west. It may cross Cape York Peninsula and move
into the Northern Region late in the week, increasing the risk of a tropical
cyclone.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

[stormkite]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0116 UTC 07/04/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 153.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [262 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 07/0600: 12.1S 152.9E: 070 [135]: 040 [075]: 997
+12: 07/1200: 12.0S 152.6E: 085 [155]: 045 [085]: 994
+18: 07/1800: 12.0S 152.1E: 095 [180]: 050 [095]: 991
+24: 08/0000: 12.0S 151.6E: 110 [200]: 055 [100]: 987
+36: 08/1200: 11.7S 150.7E: 130 [240]: 070 [130]: 976
+48: 09/0000: 11.8S 149.5E: 150 [275]: 080 [150]: 968
+60: 09/1200: 12.0S 148.2E: 170 [310]: 080 [150]: 968
+72: 10/0000: 12.5S 146.7E: 185 [345]: 080 [150]: 968
+96: 11/0000: 13.6S 143.8E: 230 [430]: 080 [150]: 969
+120: 12/0000: 15.0S 141.3E: 320 [590]: 040 [075]: 998
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on a curved band pattern
with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT give 3.0. FT was based
primarily on DT, but MET and PT support this in any case.

Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently moving in a general westwards direction under
the the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea.
Ita should continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next few
days under the influence of the mid-level ridge across the Coral Sea. However, a
mid-level trough moving across the Coral Sea today may temporarily halt the
westwards progression of the system for a period.

Vertical shear estimates from the AMSU instument suggested a consistent 15 to 20
knots of deep layer westerly shear over the system up until late yesterday,
which was severely hampering development, and was conistent with the visual
satellite presentation of the cyclone, with deep convection confined mainly to
the southeast quadrant. However, in the past 12 to 18 hours, the AMSU indicates
a significant reduction in vertical shear, which is also conistent with
convection beginning to develop on the western flank. Thus, the system is coming
into a favourable environment for further development with weak vertical wind
shear, and sea surface temperatures greater than 27 degrees along most of its
forecast track.

[euro6208]

possible major cyclone equivalent on the SSHS making landfall???

REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 153.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 061638Z TRMM IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO STORM
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION STILL
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 23P HAS ENTERED A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND CARRIES THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, ALTHOUGH
OCEAN COOLING DUE TO SLOW TRACK SPEEDS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND SLOW THROUGH TAU 24. STEADIER INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN IN PLACE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT A PERIOD
OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES WITHIN THE
PRIMARY GROUPING OF MODELS, WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET,
HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC. HOWEVER, BASED ON SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

23P ITA 140407 1200 11.9S 153.5E SHEM 55 982

[Hurricane_Luis]

Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Ita

[euro6208]

forecast has a strong category 3 possibly 4 landfall just north of cairns!




REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 153.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CICRULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 071543Z TRMM IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO
65 KNOTS. TC 23P HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE BULK OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR AND PROVIDE A POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF AND UKMO SOLUTIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WATER AS IT
RE-CURVES SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Issued at 11:08 am EST Tuesday 8 April 2014.



Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 3, has stalled south of Papua New Guinea and is about 1080 km east
of Lockhart River, and 970 km east northeast of Cooktown.

Tropical Cyclone Ita is expected to remain too far offshore to have a significant influence on the weather along
the Queensland coast through until the end of Wednesday; however later in the week the threat may increase
over Cape York Peninsula as the system moves closer to the coast.