WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZAPR2014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.0S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.1S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.3S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH A 181229Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A WELL DEFINED INNER STRUCTURE WITH TCB WRAPPING
IN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 24S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEEN IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATING GOOD POLEWARD DIFLUENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT
SOURCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND MAY
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
24S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND INTERACT WITH TC 24S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48 GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW RESULTING FROM THE
TROUGH INTERACTION. SEVERAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC,
SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OFTEN SEEN DURING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN TC 24S. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE LLCC IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS WILL RESULT IN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72. THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN AN INTENSE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER COMPLETING ETT PRIOR TO TAU 120. THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE WITH HWRF THE
EXTREME EASTWARD OUTLIER AND COTC AT THE WESTWARD EXTREME. BASED ON
THIS SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THESE
TWO OUTLIERS REMOVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
181351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181400).
//
NNNN
TPXS10 PGTW 190302
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (W OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 13.1S
D. 91.2E
E. THREE/MET7
F.
T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. .75 WRAP YIELDS
A DT OF 3.5. PT WAS 4.0; MET WAS 3.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS
(CHANGE OF 0.5 IN 6HRS) WERE BROKEN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY AN INTERMITTENT EYE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH BD ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LAST 6HRS AND MICROWAVE
EYE ON LATEST IMAGERY.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LONG
